There is a chance to finally bring order to the aircraft industry
Recent political events and the sanctions against Russia that followed them have radically changed the situation both in the field of air transportation and, I would like to believe– in the production programs of Russian aircraft. At first, Europe imposed a ban on flights of our passenger and transport aircraft to EU countries, although this in itself is not so scary. Russia reacted instantly and, as an alaverde, immediately imposed its own prohibitive sanctions. As a result, 37 states immediately lost the right to fly over the territory of our country. Therefore, it is still a question of who was in a bigger mess. At least now flights from London to Hong Kong and Tokyo will become "golden" and will last two to three hours longer. And this is a real disaster for both passengers and the airline budget.
The war was transferred from the ground to the air
But the European Union decided not to stop there and demanded the return of all airliners leased by Russian airlines of the Airbus brand. The Europeans also decided to disrupt the system of their service and repair, for which they simultaneously stopped the supply of spare parts and components. Moreover, the latter are designed for SSJ 100 and MS-21-300 aircraft under construction here, which is more sensitive already for the domestic aviation industry. If a couple of years ago, out of the blue, a ban was imposed on the supply of composite materials to Russia for the production of the "black wing", now they decided not to trifle, banning the supply of the entire range of components at once in one fell swoop.
Europe and the United States played along, also banning flights over their country. And the Boeing company, by analogy with the Airbus, has imposed bans on the use of its brand aircraft in Russia and is curtailing the supply of spare parts for them. The Russian Federation did not take long to wait, immediately and harshly reacting to these unfriendly actions.
"Concerned specialists and the journalistic fraternity repeatedly warned officials responsible for the aviation industry about the hypothetical danger of the lack of real import substitution, but there was no reaction”
I must say that the transpolar routes used by American airlines until recently are very convenient and allow you to significantly reduce the flight time from the United States to the Asian region. But these routes run through the territory of Russia, and after retaliatory measures, foreign planes will have to wind up extra hours in flights. It seems that all sides of the conflict were the losers, only the Westerners lost much more seriously.
The current difficult situation in the field of civil aviation was clarified in detail by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met with representatives of the flight crew of Russian airlines on the eve of the holiday on March 8. The Russian leadership has decided that only aircraft owned by the airlines themselves will fly abroad. There are about two hundred of them. The same passenger liners that are leased (according to recent data, there are exactly 777 cars) will be allowed only to perform domestic flights, which make up the overwhelming share of all flights.
However, we need to think about tomorrow. That is why the President of Russia at the aforementioned meeting touched in detail on the issue of domestic aircraft construction. In his opinion, the time has long come to switch to domestically produced aircraft, bearing in mind the deployment of the serial production of the new MS-21-300 airliner and its Russified version of the MS-21-310, which are now completing their flight tests. By the way, the President of the Russian Federation ended his speech with an optimistic message: "We will fly!".
Not up to fat – I would live
European and American-made aircraft in Russia, of course, will continue to be used by our airlines. However, their resource is not eternal, and in the conditions of sanctions due to the lack of spare parts supplies, they will get up for fun as they gradually wear out. But there is a way out. As a temporary measure, until the mass production of a new generation of civil aircraft of the MS-21 type begins, it is possible to use the Tu-204/214 and Il-96-300 passenger liners currently in storage. About thirty such aircraft can be quickly put into operation after undergoing preventive maintenance, if necessary. Yes, in terms of economy, they are inferior to their foreign counterparts, but with certain state subsidies, they can still surf the skies of Russia. Well, in the most extreme case, even such old men as the Tu-154 can shake the antiquity.
Today it is already possible to draw the first conclusions. The sanctions adopted against Russia are quite painful not so much for our air carriers as for the Russian aviation industry. Concerned specialists and the journalistic fraternity repeatedly warned officials responsible for the aviation industry about the hypothetical danger of the lack of real import substitution, but there was no reaction. And, as you know, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) is responsible for the production of aviation equipment in Russia. With her guidance and demand.
Harsh reality
99 years have passed since civil aviation was born in our country. Everything seems to be in order, air transportation has begun to recover after the sharp drop caused by the pandemic in 2020. However, this process still has not affected the domestic aircraft industry and this is the main problem.
It has been fifteen years since all the aviation capacities of the country were merged into a single UAC, but who is still there. No repeatedly promised breakthrough in the civil aircraft industry has ever happened. Worse, the production of civil and transport aircraft has been steadily declining from 41 aircraft in 2017 to 19 in 2021. Last year, only 12 "Superjets" were produced for airlines, and seven other types of cars went to state customers, including the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. And this is in the successor country of the USSR, which produced hundreds of aircraft annually.
It seems that the current leadership of the UAC is generally unable to move things off the ground – to increase the production of aircraft. The reason for everything is the dominance in the UAC of all the same memorable "effective managers" who occupied the highest and most delicious positions in the industry.
Here is just one quote from last year's interview with Sergey Yarkov, First Vice President of the UAC: "We are increasing the competence for the construction of military transport aircraft ..." Such a phrase is nothing but verbiage, it is high time to increase not the competence, but the production of the aircraft themselves.
And now let's take a look at the real results of the work for which Mr. Yarkov is directly responsible. They are not just modest – they are insignificant. Last year, as many as two (!) IL-76MD-90A aircraft were produced. Shame and shame - taking into account the fact that a new assembly production line has been launched at the Ulyanovsk aircraft factory, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has set a task due to the urgent need to assemble at least a dozen of these extremely popular aircraft per year. And about the recent crash of an experienced IL-112B with the tragic death of the crew, there is no need to talk. And how is the activity of the "effective managers" of the UAC seen now?
As usual, SSJ 100 passenger aircraft accounted for the main share of production in the civil aviation sector, but only 12 of them were produced last year. This is even less than was supplied in previous years. Well, its newest version, the SSJ 100 New, entirely with domestic engines and avionics, according to plans, should appear only in 2024 with an emphasis on the word "should".
The creation of the IL-96-400M wide-body liner, designed to carry 400 passengers, is going on with a long delay. They promise to send a new aircraft to the first test flight in 2022. In the conditions of tough sanctions, it is no longer so important that it is not so competitive compared to twin-engine liners of similar dimensions. The main thing is that such aircraft are capable of providing mass transportation of people to any point of our vast country.
Finally, the greatest hope of the Russian aviation industry is the long-suffering MS-21. The ban on the supply of composites to our country has been supplemented by bans on almost all avionics. Nevertheless, the first production aircraft of this type are being built at the Irkutsk Aircraft Factory, although the timing of their release will once again certainly shift to the right. We need to wait for the results of import substitution so that a new passenger liner in the guise of the MS-21-310 with Russian-made engines appears in domestic airlines as soon as possible and begins to displace the most massive A-320 and B-737 from the routes today.
What to do
It is possible to overcome the long-term stagnation in the Russian aviation industry with only one radical step – to replace the entire leadership of the UAC at once, and maybe even eliminate this structure altogether.
The "effective managers" entrenched in the state corporation should unconditionally leave their high posts. This is how old barracks are demolished in order to build modern houses in their place. The aircraft industry should be headed by people with technical education who have experience working directly at the enterprises where aircraft are manufactured.
In the conditions of a mobilization economy (and this is the case), only those who are commonly called crisis managers should lead. Of course, there is no absolute guarantee that they will instantly solve all problems, but there will be a chance for changes for the better. Otherwise, there will be no chance at all.
Vladimir Volgin
The newspaper "Military-Industrial Courier", published in issue No. 9 (922) for March 15, 2022
