The Ukrainian crisis is pushing for radical solutions
Noting Russia's determination in conducting a special military operation, foreign observers are wondering about the applicability of its methods to solving the Taiwan issue. Reasoning from a purely military standpoint, the People's Liberation Army of China has all the necessary means to conduct a large-scale amphibious operation, has not only overwhelming numerical, but also technological superiority over the island's defense forces.
At the turn of the century, the PLA abandoned the doctrine of "people's war" with a potential aggressor on its territory. Instead, Beijing has moved to the concept of projecting power far beyond the state border. Accordingly, the principles of construction and equipment of the Armed Forces have changed.
In the new century, Chinese aviation has almost completely switched to modern types of combat and military transport aircraft, helicopters and unmanned vehicles. Today, it is actively replenished with H-6N long-range bombers, J-20 multi-purpose heavy fighters of the fifth generation, combat unmanned aerial vehicles of high and medium altitude. Taiwan doesn't have anything like that.
The PLA's "second artillery" has about a thousand launchers of operational-tactical and tactical missile systems. Together with long-range multiple launch rocket systems of 300 mm caliber and more (created on the basis of technologies of the Russian MLRS "Smerch") they are capable of hitting stationary and mobile objects all over the island with high accuracy. The existing air defense/missile defense system of Taiwan will not withstand a massive air-missile strike from the mainland, during which most of the military infrastructure on the island will be destroyed.
Over the past 30 years, the PLA Navy has transformed from a coastal defense force into a first-class ocean fleet. Today it consists of: two aircraft carrier groups, a hundred destroyer and frigate class warships, 70 corvettes and the same number of submarines. The Taiwanese naval forces, modest in size and composition, will not stop such an armada. The landing party will go under her cover. Having survived its rebirth in 1979, today the Chinese Marine Corps represents the elite of the Armed Forces, is well armed and trained, has more than 20 thousand fighters.
The Marines are armed with several hundred Type 063A floating tanks with a 105 mm cannon. The ammunition contains guided missiles with laser beam guidance for high-precision destruction of coastal fortifications and armored vehicles at a distance of up to 5 km. When disembarking "on its own" from the dock ships, the tank is able to independently cover a distance of 5-7 km to the shore. Since 2005, the Type 063A has been replaced by Type 05 floating infantry fighting vehicles with a crew of four plus seven to eight Marines in the transport compartment. The BMP is armed with the same gun and, despite a mass of 26.5 tons (5 tons more), has a buoyancy and mobility comparable to a tank, developing speeds of up to 30 km / h afloat and 65 km / h on the highway. To date, more than a thousand Type 05 BMP and specialized armored vehicles have been built on its basis.
Amphibious battalions equipped with seaworthy tracked vehicles will be the first to storm the coast with the task of capturing a bridgehead. Mechanized battalions on wheeled vehicles will land behind them. They will arrive in several waves with the task of expanding the bridgehead and developing an offensive deep into the island.
A large-scale amphibious operation is obviously doomed to failure without ensuring dominance at sea. Therefore, over the past decade and a half, the PLA Navy has been actively replenished with large-tonnage ocean-class ships. The process began with the purchase of an unfinished aircraft carrier "Varyag" in Ukraine. It was towed from Nikolaev to Dalian, where it was completed as Liaoning and put into operation in 2012. Based on the drawings of the Varyag, local shipbuilders built a similar Shandong, which was tested in 2018 and has now been fully prepared for service. In total, the Liaoning and Shandong aviation groups number about a hundred aircraft, including J-15 carrier-based fighters – a Chinese "clone" of the Su-33K.
The second most important contract with Ukraine dates back to 2009. China has ordered four Bison-type amphibious hovercraft with the intention of subsequently building similar equipment at its own facilities. "Bison" is an export version of the Soviet "Bison" project 1232.2 with a total displacement of 555 tons. They were built at the Volna plant in Feodosia. The Chinese order helped the company to preserve the team and competencies that allow it to build new ships on orders of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine's next contribution to the strengthening of Chinese naval power is the supply of high-power offshore gas turbines and gearboxes for the power plants of warships. Based on the received samples and documentation of the state enterprise "Zorya – Mashproekt", the local industry has mastered their serial construction. Gas turbines are suitable not only for "Bison" and "Bison", but also for much larger vessels, including those for the transportation and landing of marines. Turbo-toothed units are installed on universal amphibious ships of project 075 with a total displacement of 40 thousand tons with a solid flight deck. In addition to 30 helicopters (in addition to the Chinese Z-8, the Russian Ka-52K Katran is planned to be included in the air group), each UDC carries three Type 726A hovercraft designed to transport a tank. Two such ships were built: Hainan and Guangxi entered service in 2021. The third is undergoing retrofitting afloat. Each can carry up to 900 Marines and act as the flagship of the ship's group.
Since 2006, the PLA Navy has received eight universal amphibious assault ships of Project 071 with a total displacement of 25 thousand tons. Each is capable of transporting up to 800 marines and about 20 units of heavy armored vehicles. The landing can be carried out with the help of four Z-8 helicopters (stored in the hangar of the ship) and four type 726A boats. Another way of landing on the coast is realized by floating infantry fighting vehicles from the dock chamber released for them. In addition to helicopter carriers and dock ships, the PLA Navy has another 65 landing craft of medium and small displacement.
Taking into account the quantitative and qualitative superiority in forces and means, in the event of a special military operation, the separatists on the island can only hope for the help of the United States and its allies. But will she come? Carefully studying the events in and around Ukraine, more and more experts come to the conclusion that the support of the collective West will not go beyond economic sanctions and sending a limited range of weapons, ammunition and fuel. This is clearly evidenced by the position of President Joseph Biden regarding Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, which is shared by the majority of European NATO member countries on fundamental issues.
Well, what about China? Studying the reaction of ordinary residents of the country to the events in Ukraine, the American media note: the vast majority of their comments are pro–Russian. Vladimir Putin's speeches with translation into Chinese are very popular on social networks. The comments posted below them boil down to the fact that viewers and listeners have understood the main thing: "a special military operation– - the fight against the influence of the West.
According to the publication of the Global Times tabloid, individual members of the nationalist Azov battalion, operating as part of the AFU, were seen among the rioters in 2019 in Hong Kong, when a wave of protests against the policies of the central government swept the city. China also remembers well how, under pressure from Washington, President Vladimir Zelensky refused Chinese investors to buy a controlling stake in the Zaporozhye Motor-SICH enterprise, specialized in the production of aircraft engines. Thus, a long-term cooperation plan was disrupted, providing for the organization of serial production of Ukrainian-designed engines at Chinese enterprises for subsequent installation on several types of aircraft.
It turns out that the Chinese have many reasons to support Moscow's position on Ukraine. At the same time, diplomats in Beijing continue to advocate a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue on the basis of dialogue between the authorities and the population of the continent and the island. Beijing demands that all countries of the world be guided by the "one China" policy, which provides for the recognition of Taiwan as part of the national territory. Washington formally severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979. Recognizing China's sovereignty over the island, the United States, however, supplies weapons there and regularly conducts warships through the strait between the mainland. The Chinese government has repeatedly warned America and its allies not to cross the red line, as it threatens to slide into armed confrontation.
In early February, the Pentagon approved the sale of another batch of American weapons along with a service package worth $ 100 million in order to increase the combat readiness of Patriot air defense systems. This is the second arms deal with Taiwan after Joseph Biden came to power. The Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China condemned these decisions of the American administration. The press service issued a statement saying the following: "The sale of American weapons seriously violates the principle of "one China" and the provisions of the three joint communiques signed by China and the United States. The People's Liberation Army will take all necessary measures to protect sovereignty and territorial integrity, thwart attempts of external interference and separatism, and ensure the unification of the country."
China continues to increase military and diplomatic pressure on the rebellious island to recognize the supremacy of Beijing. According to the views of some American politicians, now is a convenient time for the PLA to solve the "Taiwan problem" by force. Since the attention of Western countries, especially European ones, is firmly focused on Ukraine and Russia and they will not be "distracted" by what is happening in Asia. For their part, Chinese experts believe that the separatists in Taiwan should learn a lesson from the events in Ukraine and understand that the allies in Washington will help only in words.
Vladimir Karnozov