Indonesia acquires French fighter jets and submarines
Under the strongest pressure from Washington, Indonesia refused to fulfill a contract previously signed with Russia for 11 multifunctional Su-35S fighters. Instead of "dryers", Western aircraft equipment is being purchased: an application for the American F-15EX Eagle II ("Eagle". - "HBO"), negotiations were held and documents were signed on French aircraft of the Rafale type (Rafale means "Squall" in Russian. - "HBO").
The Eagles have already received preliminary approval from the US Congress, but they are unlikely to reach the "archipelago continent", it is too expensive. The first pair of similar aircraft, adopted by the US Air Force from industry for testing last year, cost the Pentagon significantly more than the serial F-35A Lightning II ("Lightning"), which former President Trump and senior military officials repeatedly talked about inflated prices. Note that at first Jakarta wanted to buy fifth-generation cars, but received a "polite refusal": instead of "Lightning" in November 2020, the then head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper, proposed the F-16 of the last generation in an updated version of Block 72 with an APG-82 radar equipped with an active antenna array (AFAR). However, according to the flight data, this car did not suit the potential buyer. He believes that the Indonesian National Army Air Force is better suited to a heavy F-15EX with characteristics close to the Su-35S.
The main problem of American products is inflated prices, prohibitive for a developing world country with an economy that, like many others, has suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic. European equipment is also not cheap, but the Rafale is smaller in size and more modest in characteristics, and as a result it is sold cheaper than the F-15EX. A couple of years ago, the government in Jakarta expressed interest in acquiring up to 48 similar aircraft. A year later, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto spoke about preparations for a 36-unit deal as part of an ambitious project with France, which also includes A330 tanker aircraft and Scorpene submarines. Last summer, the parties signed a letter of intent for a designated number of winged vehicles. At the end of January of this year, Prabowo Subianto publicly confirmed the completion of contract negotiations and announced the exit to the deal. And on February 10, the aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation, represented by its head Eric Trappier, and the head of the Defense Facilities Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Indonesia, Air Vice Marshal Yusuf Jauhari, signed an agreement for 42 F4 modification aircraft. Of these, 30 will be single, the rest will be educational "sparky". The ceremony was held in Jakarta with the presence of the heads of defense departments of the two states.
"We plan to purchase 42 Rafale aircraft," Prabowo Subianto said at the time. Why are we "planning", because the deal has been signed? It turns out that it is still limited to six aircraft of the first batch. French Defense Minister Florence Parly explained that the "strategic partnership" between the two countries is still being established: previously, the Fifth Republic did not carry out large shipments of weapons, military and special equipment to the archipelago state. "We will gradually move forward on the path of deepening our ties in the field of defense," Parly said.
Shortly after the ceremony in Jakarta, the Embassy in Paris issued a statement: "As a country with an advanced defense industry, France can become a strategic partner of Indonesia in its efforts to upgrade arsenals and accelerate the development of the national defense industry sector. This will help local industry become part of the global production chain. Accordingly, during the discussion on the future cooperation between our countries through military-technical cooperation, our Defense Minister paid great attention to the development of local industry."
The Rafale deal involves a turnkey solution, includes a full package of pilot training services, as well as logistics support at several air bases and a training center with a pair of flight simulators. The local industry is promised "significant investments both in the aviation sector and other important areas of cooperation through a wide portfolio of dual technologies mastered by Dassault and its industrial partners, such as Safran Aviation Engines and Thales.
"This contract begins a long–term cooperation that will allow Dassault to quickly increase its presence in the country," said Eric Trappier. He expressed confidence that Rafale would show "full compliance with all operational needs of the Indonesian National Army Air Force, which continues to actively contribute to the defense and sovereignty of its republic."
The Indonesian military had the opportunity to get acquainted in detail with the samples of aircraft in 2020, when several Rafale aircraft from the French Naval Aviation landed at the Sultan Iskandar Muda air base in Aceh Besar province. Under the guidance of foreign instructors, local pilots even performed several familiarization flights on the Spark.
Outwardly, everything looks quite decent. However, there is reason to believe that Indonesia is forced to enter into military-technical cooperation with France, trying to minimize the risks and consequences of actually refusing to continue military-technical cooperation with Russia. Jakarta is intimidated by the Americans, afraid to contradict them, fearing economic sanctions that the White House may impose through CATSA (the Law on Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions of 2017) and new ones adopted in connection with the events in Ukraine. Despite the impressive growth before the pandemic, the country's economy - especially high-tech industries - is still poorly developed, which is reflected in the low incomes of the population and the size of the state budget, strong dependence on foreign financial institutions and investors.
The decision on military-technical cooperation with Russia, made at the turn of the century, was explained by the desire of Jakarta to expand international relations, use our equipment, technology and investments to strengthen sovereignty, the armed forces and national industry, especially its defense sector. In terms of their flight characteristics, primarily the "range - combat load" ratio, as well as price indicators, the Su-27SKM and Su-30MK turned out to be much better than the American F-16A/B light class aircraft. This fact was confirmed during the simultaneous operation of the above-mentioned types in the Air Force of the National Army of Indonesia for almost 20 years. Meanwhile, neither the USA nor Western Europe could offer anything better than the F-16, at least for an acceptable price.
Closely observing the development of the military-technical cooperation of Russia and Indonesia, Washington drew attention to the enthusiastic reviews of local pilots about our equipment and the plans of the defense department for its further purchases. In an effort to reverse the trend towards strengthening Russian-Indonesian cooperation, then US President Barack Obama not only lifted economic sanctions imposed on the country in connection with the events in Aceh, but also provided packages of free military assistance, including sending old F-16A/B out of stock from US Air Force warehouses. Newer and more modern F-16C/D were delivered at reduced prices, as a result of which the total fleet of this type of vehicles increased to 50. Having accepted American handouts, the government in Jakarta nevertheless declared the Su-35C the "best choice" of the main type of combat aircraft for the long-term development of the National Army Air Force. Plans were being made for a huge batch in addition to the ten previously acquired Su-27SKM and Su-30MK.
For almost 10 years, there was both an open and an undercover struggle between supporters and opponents of the Su-35S. The latter finally won a year ago. Then the Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Air Force, Fajar Prasetyo, confirmed the information that got into the media about the readiness to purchase 36 French Rafale aircraft by 2024 and – at the same time – 8 American F-15EX. At the same time, he refused to comment on the arguments of journalists that the appeal to Washington with requests for the F-35A and F-15EX is of a formal diplomatic nature, in order to demonstrate loyalty to the White House. In fact, the maximum that Jakarta really wanted was not to offend the States, so that they would continue to provide military-technical assistance and support, including the construction of a new military base and training center on the shore of the South China Sea.
Apparently, Washington has understood Jakarta's position. In the current geopolitical situation, it suits him quite well. The essence is the refusal to continue the military-technical cooperation with Russia for softening financial and economic conditions when concluding deals with the collective West. Whether Indonesia will buy new American fighters or not is a secondary question. Moreover, the number is small, it will have almost no effect on the income and workload of the huge aviation industry. In France, the size of the military-industrial complex is much smaller, and therefore an order for several dozen "Rafales" is very, very desirable, it will help to maintain the profitability of the production of this model at the Dassault factory.
For Indonesia, with its limited financial resources, the key issue is the price conditions for the purchase of new military equipment. Here the Elysee Palace met halfway, providing an interstate loan under sovereign guarantees for 80% of the contract amount. A similar scheme is already being used in Egypt.
The conditions are not bad, but not so good compared to the Russian ones that were provided during the implementation of the Su-27/Su-30 deal. First of all, for the price, but not only. Recall that a significant part of the payments was provided in the form of barter with the supply of traditional exports, in particular rubber and palm oil.
The USA and France compete in the market of military equipment, sometimes very harshly. This is confirmed by the example of Australia. Some time ago, this country held a number of international tenders for the purchase of certain types of weapons and military equipment. European manufacturers won two of them - for Tiger fire support helicopters and Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A submarines. However, at the end of 2020, the government decided to take all Tigers out of service ahead of schedule, hastily replacing them with American AH-64s. And last summer, it tore up the barracuda contract, instead declaring a desire to purchase nuclear submarines from the United States and Great Britain through interaction within the newly formed military-political bloc AUKUS.
This decision caused a storm of protest in Paris, they even raised - albeit in theory – the question of withdrawing from all alliances with states that had so treacherously acted in the case of submarines. Wanting to reassure the offended, but "very important" partner in NATO, Washington offered various "compensations", including promising to share high-tech design and construction of nuclear aircraft carriers.
It seems that the White House has also decided to refuse to compete with France for Indonesia's military orders, thereby tacitly agreeing to the implementation of the Rafale aircraft project, as well as others in the development of Franco-Indonesian cooperation. Having understood Washington's position, Paris and Jakarta moved on. They started negotiations on Scorpene-type submarines. If the deal goes through, it will serve as some kind of compensation to the Naval group of companies for the loss of the Australian contract for Barracudas. However, it is insufficient: instead of 12 boats, we are talking about 2-4. In addition, the displacement of the Scorpene is about 2 thousand tons against 5 thousand from the Barracuda. Armament - ancient anti-ship missiles SM39 Exocet against long-range SCALP and Tomahawk, combat information and control system - obsolete SUBTICS instead of the advanced American AN / BYG-1 based on the BIUS of underwater nuclear-powered ships.
In addition to submarines, Indonesia is also interested in A330 tanker aircraft and Gowind project corvettes with a displacement of 2500 tons. The total amount of the package is variously estimated by experts - from 10 billion to 25-28 billion dollars. This is significantly less than the severed Australian contract for Barracudas, estimated at $66 billion.
It is still difficult to say whether there will be a deal. The key issue is financial conditions. Indonesia's solvency is low, it will require a large loan with an unclear possibility of repayment even in the long term. Obviously, therefore, the discussion was conducted first on four submarines, and recently only two are being conducted. Let us repeat that Indonesia's refusal from the practical execution of the previously signed contract on the Su-35S is forced, accepted under conditions of the strongest pressure from the United States. Officials avoid clear comments on this issue, and when journalists insist, they give vague formulations such as "did not agree on the price."
Vladimir Karnozov
