Military expert Vladislav Shurygin - about what the APU was on the eve of the Russian operation and why it was called special
The results of the first days of the special military operation in Ukraine allow us to draw the first conclusions about how the Russian army is fighting and what kind of enemy it is opposed to. For many years, there has been an incorrect belief in many Russian media that the armed forces of Ukraine are some kind of backward army, with outdated Soviet weapons, poorly equipped and unable to conduct modern active hostilities. It was formed after the military failures of Kiev in 2014-2015, when the weakly controlled groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were surrounded and defeated near Ilovaisk and Debaltseve.
Eight years have passed since then. During this time, the Russian army has made a powerful breakthrough and has become one of the most modern and combat-ready armies in the world both in terms of equipment and combat experience. And how have the APU changed over the years?
On the day of the start of the special operation, the Ukrainian armed forces consisted of 250 thousand people, another 1 million were in the mobilization reserve. There were 2808 tanks, 8215 armored vehicles, 3.5 thousand artillery systems, 230 aircraft (airplanes, helicopters, UAVs) in service and at storage bases.
As of February 2022, 145 thousand personnel were directly in the ground forces. About 60 thousand more were called up from the reserve and sent to the troops.
As for equipment, the indicators are as follows: tanks - 832 units; armored fighting vehicles - 1,425 units; artillery systems (122 and 152 mm) - 1,041 units; MLRS (300, 220, 122 mm) - 348 units.
By all parameters, the AFU has become the third largest army in Europe after Russia and Turkey.
Over the past eight years, Ukraine, with huge financial assistance from the United States and NATO, has been able to repair and modernize most of its armored vehicles and carry out a serious reorganization. And if it has not changed much in terms of the total number of equipment and weapons, then it is very serious in terms of combat capability.
First of all, with the help of the United States and NATO countries, Ukraine has received modern closed digital communications. The combat controls were upgraded.
Shock units and formations received modern equipment, night vision devices, reconnaissance and targeting equipment. All this was immediately sent to the Donbass, where it was tested and studied by the troops.
Of course, not all units were able to receive modern weapons, equipment and armored vehicles. Some of the troops, especially in the west and in the center, remained at the level of 2015. In fact, they are motorized infantry on trucks with stripped-down artillery fleets consisting of outdated artillery systems. But the combat core of the ground forces — about 80 thousand soldiers and officers — meets the requirements of modern combat. In the last two months, the United States and NATO countries have tried to saturate them to the maximum with modern anti-tank weapons of American and British production, portable anti-aircraft missile systems.
Even more powerful changes took place in the quality of the APU. After 2014, a program of "strengthening" the Armed Forces of Ukraine was launched, according to which servicemen who had fought in 2014-2015, especially representatives of Nazi battalions and members of the "Right Sector" (banned in Russia), were sent to military schools and academies, from where they returned to the troops as officers. And today, most of the junior and middle officers are highly motivated nationalist-minded commanders, which ensures the perseverance and steadfastness of the AFU.
The combat training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was conducted under the guidance of American and NATO instructors and was specially "sharpened" to counter the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Russian tactics were taken into account, Russian combat regulations were studied, and tactics of combat with Russian units were practiced.
In fact, all eight years of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were created solely as an instrument of confrontation with one enemy — Russia. And every year this tool was strengthened and improved. Ukraine received modern UAVs, purchases of modern armored vehicles were being prepared, production of cruise missiles of its own design and operational-tactical missiles that would have a reserve for upgrading to medium-range missiles was being established.
In 2023-2025, the modernization of the Ukrainian Air Force was to begin, the purchase and partial transfer of F-16, F-15 A-10 attack aircraft to Ukraine, with the retraining of pilots for these types. Own production of Turkish-designed UAVs was to begin. There were talks about the transfer of the American Patriot air defense system to Ukraine in the number of several divisions.
But at the time of the start of the operation, the Air Force remained the Achilles heel of the APU. Only a few dozen combat aircraft of various types, two dozen Bayraktar-type UAVs and several divisions of Buk, S-300 air defense systems, as well as a network of obsolete Soviet-made radars were in the ranks of the "midwife forces".
Also, the problem remained the uninterrupted supply of fuel and lubricants, which Ukraine did not produce enough on its own and mainly bought abroad. These volumes were enough for peacetime combat training, but for military operations, in the conditions of the destruction of fuel and lubricants bases, their shortage became critical. According to various estimates, the fuel reserves were enough for 7-10 days of active hostilities.
This was to be solved by laying a network of army fuel pipelines from Romania and Poland with the creation of a network of secure storage facilities in the supply lane.
According to Western experts, by 2023-2024, the AFU should have reached a level that would guarantee Ukraine stability in any conflict with Russia, and with Western support - and causing unacceptable damage to it. This was supposed to ensure the ousting of pro-Russian forces from the Donbass region, which would mean its major geopolitical defeat.
To call a spade a spade, Ukraine was preparing, it was its "historical mission".
After the first days of fighting, it is possible to analyze in advance — how is the modern Russian army fighting? Why, having practically surrounded such large cities as Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, did she not begin their assault? What are the Russian troops waiting for?
The answer lies in the name of the current military operation - "special operation".
How is it different from war? First of all, the scale and nomenclature of combat use. In 2003, the Americans were advancing through Iraq, as they claimed, by an "accelerated march" - 35 km per day, which they still consider their main success and proof of their military genius. But what was behind it? Let me remind you: if any resistance arose, they immediately suppressed it with all the range of weapons at their disposal: from strike aircraft and cruise missiles to large-caliber artillery, tank fire and mortars, which led to huge casualties among the civilian population of the neighborhoods that were hit. The US army literally cleared its way with fire, sometimes demolishing entire neighborhoods, which is well remembered by residents of Nasiriyah, Najaf and Basra. And Baghdad got it, despite the fact that it was actually taken as a result of collusion behind Hussein's back with his generals.
The Russian Federation has been trying for the sixth day to convince the Ukrainian military command to stop hiding behind civilians and abandon resistance in cities and towns. Until now, our army has not used bomber aircraft, large-caliber artillery, or MLRS in the city limits, acting only with precision and precision weapons. At the same time, the APU uses all available weapons for us. They are firing from guns, MLRS and self-propelled guns deployed in dense urban development. From the courtyards of schools and hospitals.
All this says only one thing: no one planned an easy walk to Kiev. These are the tales of the Western media, specially launched to discredit the military operation we have launched. And the scale of the forces involved in the operation indicates that the command is aware of how difficult the task is to be performed by the Russian army. It acts against a trained, well-armed, motivated opponent.
And we couldn't avoid this special operation, no matter how hard we tried. We were forced to it, pushing Ukraine forward, to the Donbass. We didn't want this, but we have to win. Because we are not talking about the APU, not about Ukraine, but about the collective West, which decided to erase Russia from the history of the XXI century.
The author is a military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
