Washington threatens Jakarta with sanctions for partnership with Moscow
Indonesia seems to be becoming the first major state to abandon full-scale military-technical cooperation with Russia. The litmus test was the Su-35S, which has been under negotiation since 2014. In November 2018, the parties signed a contract for 11 fighter aircraft with an estimated cost of about a billion dollars, but it has not yet entered into force due to inconsistencies in the financial scheme and delivery schedule.
The reason is Washington's political pressure, backed up by the threat of economic sanctions. Congress passed, and the US President signed ,the " Countering America's Adversaries Act." According to him, measures have already been introduced against a number of Chinese structures and military and political figures (for the purchase of S-400 and Su-35S), as well as Turkey (S-400), Egypt, India and other states are next in line.
According to some Jakarta officials, the deal has not been canceled, but only postponed indefinitely. Other figures show a desire to buy Western analogues instead of "dry goods".
Finding an alternative
At last year's meetings with the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, the topic of combat aircraft was also raised. According to the newspaper La Tribune, it was about 48 Rafale fighters, but in December, Ms. Parly clarified that "negotiations on this issue have made significant progress," but we are talking about 36 machines.
The head of the Indonesian military Department, Prabowo Subianto, also held consultations with the Americans. The request for the F-35A was rejected: Washington is not ready to deliver them earlier than in nine years. Therefore, according to the ambassador to Washington, Muhammad Lutfi, they offered to look at the fourth – generation fighters-the F-16V and F-15EX.
Indonesian buyers liked the latter better. Speaking at the annual staff conference on February 18, Indonesian Air Force Chief of Staff Air Marshal Fajar Prasetyo said six F-15EXS would arrive in 2022, followed by two more-eight in all.
Based on the very modest allocations for defense, the simultaneous purchase of Russian, French and American fighters is not possible. Most likely, they will buy one thing. In fact, Indonesia once again faces a choice, not only for financial and economic reasons, but also for political reasons.
Maybe the Su-35S is inferior to foreign aircraft in terms of tactical and technical characteristics, the cost of purchase and maintenance? Not at all. Numerous comparative studies in this area, carried out by independent experts, give preference to "drying". It is favourably distinguished from its Western counterparts by its price parameters. Its main advantage over the "Eurofighter" and "Rafale" is a large dimension, which means an increased range and combat load.
Geography of choice
"Drying" is good for the defense of a long coastline. And this is very important for Indonesia – the largest island state in the world, within the borders of which there are about 13 thousand islands with a total area of more than 1.9 million square kilometers, located at the junction of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Among the straits of particular importance is the Malacca Strait, through which up to 100 thousand ships pass annually and from a quarter to half of the global maritime trade turnover. Further development of shipping will increase the value of the Sunda (Sunda) and Lombok Straits.
At the turn of the century, the country chose the basic Su-27 as the main type in the long-term formation of the fleet of the air force. In comparison with the most advanced model of Western aircraft, which was part of the Indonesian Air Force – the American F-16A light fighter, the advantages of the "sushek" were as follows. Increased (by 50%) range, high (up to 8 tons) combat load and a wide range of weapons. Russian aircraft were supplied with air–to-air missiles (R-73E, RVV–AE), air-to-ground missiles (X-29 and X – 59) and anti–ship missiles (X-31A), while American aircraft were supplied with only air-to-air missiles (AIM-9L).
Deliveries began in 2003. The then head of the military department spoke about plans to purchase 180 fighters of this family in order to form ten squadrons. However, in fact, only five single-seat Su-27SK and 11 "spark" Su-30MKK were purchased.
To date, these models have been discontinued in favor of the more advanced Su-35S, which represents a further development of the basic Su-27. It has successfully passed all types of tests, including military ones, as well as combat testing during the counter-terrorist operation in Syria. This explains the high interest on the part of the Russian Defense Ministry and our partners in military-technical cooperation. More than 100 vehicles entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces, 24-with the PLA Air Force. A pair of contracts with foreign buyers for the supply of 30 aircraft in 2020-2021 and 32-34 – in 2022-2024 are being executed. In short, the assembly line at the plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur is loaded with orders for several years ahead.
Maybe Jakarta is not satisfied with the settlement scheme? But Moscow agrees to a very convenient way for the customer to offset a significant part of the cost of new equipment by supplying traditional export goods – rubber and palm oil. So what is the real reason for the actual refusal of our partner from the practical implementation of the next transaction?
Ways of development
The largest island nation with a population of 270 million, Indonesia is looking for a development path that would put the country on the path of prosperity, using its huge geographical and demographic potential. Today, the underdeveloped economy of the fourth most populous country in the world provides it with only the 16th place in terms of gross national product (about $ 1.1 trillion) and the 119th in terms of income per inhabitant.
The weak economy hinders the development of the national armed forces, primarily through the purchase of high-tech military equipment. For example, the air Force has only fifty supersonic fighters-in addition to the "drying" they have another 33 American F-16. This is much less than the neighboring countries – Australia, Singapore and Vietnam, not to mention China. And taking into account the quality of specific aircraft, weapons of destruction for it and the training of personnel, there is even a lag behind Malaysia. For other types of high-tech weapons, the situation is even worse.
If war breaks out, you can win by trying to take advantage of the demographic potential of the country, which allows you to put a large part of the male population under the gun. However, the possession of such an army does not guarantee success, because geographical conditions are much more conducive to the actions of aviation, fleet and rapid deployment forces than poorly armed infantry. The country has a large army – almost 400 thousand soldiers, and with the police and other forces to maintain order-more than a million.
Defense spending
The Ministry of Defense has long raised the question of the need to rearm the army, but the topic of increasing the share of defense spending above the current figure of 0.7% of GNP is not understood by politicians. There will be nothing to plug the holes in the budget, and there, look, not far from the unrest of the broad masses of the working people and the aggravation of the national question. After a twofold increase in the military budget in 2005-2011, it stabilized in the range of $ 7-9 billion. The plan for the current year is 9.2 billion rubles.
Over the past decade, Indonesia has not conducted large-scale purchases of foreign military equipment. Basically, the defense budget was spent on the development of its own military-industrial complex, including through the expansion of licensed production. Small purchases abroad were made with an eye to the subsequent organization of the production of such equipment on their territory. In particular, we are talking about the acquisition of 16 supersonic T-50 combat training aircraft from South Korea under a contract for $ 400 million, related to Indonesia's participation in the development of the KF-X light fighter based on this UBS (with the subsequent purchase of 50 units).
In short, if the government keeps the share of defense spending at 0.7% of GNP, then we should not expect large purchases of high-tech military equipment in the West. The client's solvency will not allow it. The only real way to make a deal is to soften the financial and economic conditions of the supplier, provide long-term loans and installments, accept traditional export goods as payment, etc.
Friendship with America
Jakarta strives to establish good relations with the whole world in search of technologies and investments for the development of the economy. The United States, with its "global" products and huge domestic consumption, is important to local consumers and suppliers. But in terms of military-technical cooperation, Indonesia has a negative experience of interaction with the United States.
At first, things went well. In 1982, Jakarta acquired 18 F-5E/F light fighters, and in 1989, 12 more modern F-16A/B fighters. However, starting in 1992, Washington began to gradually curtail military cooperation. By the decision of the Congress, assistance in training the Indonesian military under the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program was discontinued. The reason was the actions of a group of police and soldiers in their confrontation with the population of East Timor.
When the case in the rebel province came to the use of aircraft against the separatists, the United States imposed an embargo on technical support and the supply of spare parts. The sanctions regime was in effect from 1999 to 2006. For this reason, the entire fleet of F-5E/F and F-16A/B aircraft gradually lost its airworthiness, it had to be mothballed.
Since there were no other types of fighters in service with the Indonesian Air Force, the country became defenseless from air strikes. The process of gradual lifting of restrictions began only in November 2005. In view of the need to eliminate the consequences of the devastating tsunami, the United States partially lifted the ban on the sale of spare parts for aircraft.
Perspective
Under Barack Obama, free deliveries of certain types of weapons were practiced. Donald Trump called for the abolition of such practices. It's not clear if Biden will get things back on track. Therefore, if the question of the supply of the F-15EX seriously arises, the Americans are unlikely to go for relief, because this is a new model that has just entered production. More likely is the resumption of F-16 deliveries "out of stock". The planes are old, and it seems reasonable to float them abroad instead of recycling them. For Indonesia, this is a good temporary solution.
In the fall of 2019, the Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Air Force, Yuyu Sutisna, told about plans to form a pair of additional squadrons on the F-16, which requires 32 aircraft. However, a single-engine light-class fighter is able to solve only part of the tasks of the country's Air Force. A simple increase in the size of the F-16 fleet will not give a full-fledged replacement for the Su-35S-heavy class vehicles with a large combat load and range.
In Jakarta, they do not give up our fighters, but in fact they do not give up the contract. At the same time, a dialogue is underway with Europe and the United States in order to find an acceptable alternative. That's just it does not work-Western aircraft is much more expensive. Therefore, instead of 11 Su-35S, we are talking only about 8 F-15EX, and even have to pay extra.
The Indonesian story is far from over. However, even now it serves as an example of how a large state with a high demographic resource, but a weak economy, is forced to listen to the shouts from the White House. Jakarta is unlikely to go against the will of Washington, fearing US sanctions and their impact on the pace of development of the country's economy.
Vladimir Karnozov
Vladimir Aleksandrovich Karnozov-military analyst.
