Drop the cargo: will Russia return to the leaders of transport aviation exports

Why does the Ministry of Defense increase the production rate of IL-76MD-90A

Over the past four years, foreign customers have repeatedly turned to Russian aircraft manufacturers with a request for the supply of military transport aircraft, sources familiar with the situation on the international arms market told Izvestia. For many years, the USSR, and then Russia, were the world leaders in sales of transport aircraft: their volumes often exceeded even the indicators of deliveries of combat aircraft. IL-76, AN-32, AN-12 fly in dozens of countries around the world, but, despite the interest of potential buyers, now there are no such exports from the Russian Federation. Last week, during a visit to the Ulyanovsk JSC "Aviastar-SP", Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu set a task to increase the production rate of IL-76MD-90A military transport aircraft to 10 per year. Earlier, the company's management reported that the new production line will allow to produce up to 18 machines annually. Whether the decision to increase the production of transport aircraft will help Russia regain its leadership position, military expert Andrey Frolov understood.

Capacity in reserve

In May last year, the Russian Defense Ministry renegotiated a contract with the Ulyanovsk enterprise for the supply of IL-76MD-90A military transport aircraft on new terms. According to the current agreement of nine years ago, the plant will hand over a total of 13 aircraft, and from 2021 a new document will come into force — for the supply of 14 such aircraft until 2028. In addition, on December 18 last year, a state contract was signed for the supply of 10 new IL-78M-90A tankers. In total, in the coming years, the Russian Aerospace Forces should receive 37 aircraft of the IL-76/78 family.

It is obvious that the set rate of 10 aircraft per year is guaranteed to cover the needs of both the Russian Aerospace Forces and other state structures: the existing orders with such production volumes will be fulfilled within a few years. From this, we can conclude that there is a kind of "reserve" of capacity, which will allow us to fulfill export orders.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) inspects the IL-76MD-90A heavy transport aircraft

Image source: Photo: RIA Novosti/Vadim Savitsky

This assumption immediately puts on the agenda the question of the current capabilities of the Russian Federation for the export of military transport aircraft. Unfortunately, only the IL-76MD-90A is currently in mass production. The IL-112B light class aircraft is still undergoing tests, and the horizons of its transfer to the series are very far away. The development of the IL-276 medium-class military transport aircraft is just underway (the first flight in 2023 seems very optimistic), and its domestic competitor from the Tupolev Design Bureau is also far from the first flight. The situation is similar with the super-heavy transport aircraft, which exists only in the form of sketches.

Thus, at the moment, Russia can offer the market only the military transport aircraft of the IL-76MD-90A heavy class and its modifications. This situation is strikingly different from the Soviet times, when the entire line of military transport equipment was in production, which was actively exported (with the exception of super-heavy). For example, of the 955 Il-76 military and civilian modifications produced, about 100 were exported. In the case of the An-26 light military transport aircraft, 420 vehicles out of 1,400 produced were exported.

Main offer

In the 70s and 80s of the last century, the Soviet Union as a whole was the market leader in military transport aviation, supplying aircraft to countries not only in the socialist camps, but also in the third world. In the 1980s, a kind of reserve was created in order to strengthen the position before launching a new generation of cars with unique characteristics (for example, the An-70, obviously, would become a bestseller). But plans changed after the events of 1991: the market was overheated by a large number of Soviet military transport aircraft sold by the heirs of the USSR, and the market for new aircraft was divided between the United States and the European Union.

Russia in the post-Soviet period stopped exporting military transport aircraft of its own production. Contracts were signed for the supply of IL-76, which remained in reserve at the manufacturing plant in Tashkent. The limitations of such a scheme were clearly shown in 2005-2006, when the delivery of 38 IL-76/78 aircraft to China in the amount of $1 billion did not take place. The incident eventually led to the transfer of production of these machines to Ulyanovsk.

As a result, we had to be content with the supply of Il-76MD aircraft from the availability, as well as participate in complex schemes, such as, for example, a contract for the supply of the same Il-76 to China, which were literally assembled from the market in Ukraine and Belarus. Light An-26s in individual quantities were transferred free of charge to Russia's allies in the CIS.

This situation predetermined the efforts to promote the IL-76MD-90A(E) and IL-78MK-90A on the world market. In 2015, a representative of Rosoboronexport reported that Russia had received applications from foreign customers for the purchase of approximately 25-30 IL-76MD-90A. In the same year, the then head of Aviastar-SP, Sergey Dementyev, clarified that Iran, Algeria, South Africa and Kazakhstan were among the possible customers. It seems that Algeria and Kazakhstan have the greatest chances to become the first export customer, especially since in 2016 it was reported that Astana planned to purchase two aircraft of this type.

The niche of exporting upgraded Il-76MD-M vehicles purchased by the Russian Aerospace Forces, as well as the option of re-equipping the IL-76TD/MD with PS-90A-76 engines to the IL-76TD-90 variant, as was already the case with the Guinean IL-76TD, are also promising.

Russia does not refuse to supply the export version of the IL-112VE aircraft: this machine is already included in the catalog of Rosoboronexport. But, as noted above, its export plans will not become a reality until 2024-2025.

The newest Russian light military transport aircraft IL-112B during a test flight

Image source: Photo: RIA Novosti/Armen Gasparyan

The appearance of the IL-112VE is expected only in the middle of the current decade, and it will have to win a place on the market even in the CIS countries, where similar Airbus C295 aircraft are actively operated. And every year of delay significantly reduces its chances of export. The same can be said about the IL-276,which, apparently, will be offered for export closer to 2030.

Thus, it can be stated that in the coming years, the main Russian proposals on the world market of military transport aviation will be the IL-76MD-90A( E), as well as various options for upgrading IL-76TD/MD machines.

Andrey Frolov