Not so long ago, on January 14 of this year, the commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Igor Golub, said that the republic is preparing to purchase Russian S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems to re-equip its anti-aircraft missile forces: "We continue pre-contract work on re-equipping our divisions of anti-aircraft missile forces armed with S-300 with new S-400 and Pantsir-S systems.
This statement did not cause much resonance, but some traditionally tried to shake up the information environment with questions: "Why? Why spend the money? What's wrong with the S-300? Who will attack us? Who needs us?"
Questions, in general, are typical for the ordinary man in the street. Experts can say that in modern realities, the military security of small states depends less and less on the quantity and quality of their weapons, and more and more on their place in the system of international relations and the presence of strong allies. Is it true?
Before deciding on the place of the Republic of Belarus in the system of international relations, it is necessary to consider the relations themselves and the situation in which not only Belarus, but also the region and the world as a whole are located.
Not the most complex analysis makes it possible to assert that the processes of geo-economic and geopolitical reconstruction of the world are raging around us. The manifestations of these processes are increased terrorist activity, merciless competition in the issue of establishing control over energy and raw materials resources, and an information war that is unprecedented in scale,activity and impurity.
Unfortunately, the increase in these negative trends occurs against the background of the degradation of previously established systems for ensuring international security and the decline in the authority of the UN, the OSCE and other organizations.
It is obvious that in such conditions, the transformation of the principles of global regulation will naturally take place – from the civilized recognition of the sovereign equality of states-to the primitive prerogative of "who is stronger, is right".
The process has already started – over the previous seven years, global defense spending has steadily demonstrated continuous growth and in 2020 reached $1.93 trillion, which is almost $180 billion. more than the 2010 figure of $1.75 trillion. Naturally, the leader here is the NATO bloc. By the way, the key problem of the alliance is funding.Two-thirds of its budget is provided by the United States, and this is no secret to anyone.
This is probably why,during a meeting of the NATO Military Committee last week (27.01.21), ALLIANCE Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on the allies to further increase defense spending, invest in modern capabilities and ensure that the military is ready to respond to such challenges as "Russia's aggressive actions, terrorism and the risks associated with the rise of China."
That is, NATO has already identified its enemies for itself, and the rest are convinced by Stoltenberg's words of its peacefulness:"Our democracy, our values, and the rules-based world order are being challenged. Therefore, we must be ready to face any threats that the future may bring."
Belarus is also among those who are convinced in this way. And what about the rapid activity that NATO has deployed in the territories adjacent to the republic – in Poland and the Baltic states?
For example, within the framework of the NATO OVS operation "Enhanced Forward Presence", NATO multinational battalion tactical groups (MBTG) under the command of the United States – in Poland, Canada – in Latvia, Germany – in Lithuania are deployed to our neighbors on a rotational basis (the rotation period is six months), with full – time weapons and technical units that form these groups.
That's not all. In early January 2021, a special ceremony was held at which the 8th Cavalry Regiment of the 2nd Battalion of the US Army officially began an eight-month mission in Lithuania aimed at" deterring Russian aggression " in the Baltic region. During the ceremony, Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anushauskas emphasized that Lithuania is ready to ensure the continuity of this" forward " presence and deepen cooperation with the United States. That is, Lithuania explicitly declares its desire for the permanent presence of foreign troops on the territory of its state. We are not even talking about losing the sovereignty of the state.
In addition, plans are being hatched for the deployment of the US 5th Army Corps in Poland and the deployment of tactical missile systems. Warsaw also intends to purchase American F-35A fighter-bombers (by the way, offensive weapons).
According to available data, on the territory of Poland and the Baltic countries, taking into account the military contingent of the US armed forces stationed in these states as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, the total group currently has about 8 thousand people, about 100 battle tanks, more than 160 armored combat vehicles (BBM), about 30 combat aircraft and helicopters.
To ensure the functioning and expansion of the capabilities of the "advanced military presence group" of NATO, the prepared infrastructure of the Eastern European member states of the alliance is used. Bringing it into compliance with the alliance's standards has been carried out over the past 15 years with financial and technical assistance from the organization.To date, a number of large advanced airfields in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have been modernized, the combined capabilities of which allow them to receive tactical and strategic aircraft of the NATO Air Force.
Of particular concern is the increase in the scale and intensity of the alliance's OVS training activities near the borders of Belarus. It is not the first year that dozens of NATO tanks and armored personnel carriers have been maneuvering near the Belarusian borders, and strategic drones regularly conduct reconnaissance. Small tactical exercises on national territories grow to the level of interstate strategic exercises of the United States and NATO such as "Defender Europe" (the next "Defender" will be held in May-June this year).
Summing up all of the above, we can conclude that the measures taken by NATO and the United States to increase their presence in Poland and the Baltic States, as well as the modernization of military infrastructure, are nothing more than expanding the possibilities for creating a strike – offensive group of troops in Europe in a short time. And this is without taking into account the aspirations of Ukraine, which in 2019 fixed the strategic course for obtaining membership in NATO as a constitutional norm. Question – who are NATO and the US going to attack?
All the credibility of the statements about the defensive nature of the alliance's aspirations, aimed solely at deterring the "Russian aggressive foreign policy", along with the complete absence of danger to the Republic of Belarus, is broken by the experience gained by Belarus in 2020. The destructive participation of the" collective West "in the autumn protests allowed us to see the true faces and ultimate goals of the"democratizers" under the masks.
At the same time, Minsk is still ready for a dialogue with Western partners, but the sanctions policy and the open militarization of Eastern Europe leave no choice-we have to follow the general trends.
And now it's time to deal with the presence of strong allies in Belarus. It should be noted that there are not many of them. Within the framework of the Union State – this is Russia, within the framework of the CSTO-its members. Of course, there is only one strategic military ally – Russia.
There is a single regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia. There are plans for its use and operation in peacetime. It's all there. There is only no certainty that, if necessary, the group will have time to turn around.
As it was noted earlier, in all the countries adjacent to Belarus, there are already "defensive" NATO ICBMs and US army units (except for Ukraine, but this is probably a matter of time). The offensive group is almost created. At the same time, there is no hype around the loss of sovereignty by Poland and the Baltic states.
Why shouldn't Belarus adopt the experience of its Western neighbors? The presence of three or four battalion tactical groups of the armed forces of the Russian Federation (as the second subject of the common state and objectively the only military ally) on the territory of Belarus seems to be quite an adequate response to the presence of a NATO strike group near the Belarusian borders.
In addition, by the same analogy with the western and north-western Belarusian neighbors, in order to ensure the functioning of the Russian BTGr and increase combat capabilities, including the regional grouping of troops, it is advisable to modernize the airfield network and place a Russian air base – such plans have been considered for a long time, only a political solution is lacking.
Taking into account the risks and challenges to the military security of the Republic of Belarus, objectively assessing its economic and military potential, as well as the main trends in the development of the situation around our state, it should be stated that the moment for making such a political decision has come.
Vladimir Vujacic
