The threats to global security posed by India and Pakistan are quite real
The issue of extending the validity of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States on Measures for Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, known as START-3, remains in the focus of the world community's attention at the beginning of 2021. Many experts consider this treaty to be one of the cornerstones of strategic stability. Of course, any restriction or reduction of the nuclear missile arsenals of the leading world Powers is an important step towards reducing the threat of a nuclear catastrophe. However, at the same time, the ongoing race of nuclear missile weapons of Asian states with growing economies and scientific and technical potential remains in the shadows: China, India and Pakistan, which in the coming decades may approach the totality of their nuclear arsenals to the Russian Federation and the United States.
Obviously, now it is time to take care of the involvement of these very active members of the "nuclear club"in the process of limiting and reducing nuclear weapons. Beijing makes it a condition of its possible participation in such international treaties to reduce the number of nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation and the United States to the level of China. India and Pakistan are seeking to create a reliable shield of nuclear deterrence for each other.
A particular danger from the point of view of the likelihood of an exchange of nuclear strikes is the protracted territorial conflict between India and Pakistan, which is based on the problem of the Muslim-populated Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir (now two allied Indian territories). Separatist groups and religious extremists are active there, and New Delhi accuses the Pakistani authorities of supporting them. Islamabad denies these accusations, saying that the people of Kashmir are fighting for their own rights and freedoms. Border clashes between the military with the use of artillery and small arms, terrorist attacks, and the death of local residents have become commonplace in this area. And if the previous Indo-Pakistani wars and armed conflicts were conducted with the use of conventional weapons, now the possible use of nuclear missiles is becoming more and more real.
"By 2025, Pakistan and India may have a total of 400 to 500 nuclear warheads with a capacity of up to several hundred kilotons ”
According to a number of experts, Pakistan currently has 120-140 nuclear warheads (against India's 100), which makes the country the sixth in the world in this indicator after Russia, the United States, France, China and the United Kingdom. Islamabad is constantly modernizing and improving its nuclear arsenal and has now almost completed the creation of land (missile), air and sea means of delivering nuclear charges to targets. Islamabad has the necessary capacity to build 20 nuclear warheads a year and, apparently, has already used them to their full potential. Even if these rates are not increased, in ten years, Pakistan will be able to possess the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world (350 warheads) and will significantly exceed India in these indicators. The leadership of the Islamic Republic reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, especially tactical ones, to compensate for India's advantage in manpower and conventional weapons in the event of a new large-scale conflict between them.
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine provides for different levels of response to deter a potential aggressor State from attacking. It includes warnings in the state or informal level, a demonstrative test of a small nuclear device or missile launches at its territory, the use of nuclear weapons in Pakistan against the forces of the aggressor, the use of nuclear weapons against military targets on the territory of the aggressor country, presumably in sparsely populated areas to minimize damage.
Ground-based nuclear weapons carriers of the Armed Forces of Pakistan are represented by ballistic missile launchers from the tactical level to medium-range missiles, as well as cruise missiles. Tactical aircraft with nuclear bombs was the first carrier of nuclear weapons and operates to this day. The fleet of combat aircraft is 520 units, of which 100 are Chinese-Pakistani JF-17A/B light fighters, 85 converted American F-16A/B/C/D, 80 French Mirage III and 85 Mirage V, as well as 180 Chinese F-7s. In service there are ground-based cruise missiles "Babur" in three versions, the range, according to various estimates, is 350-750 kilometers. Modification "Babur-3" is intended for its placement on a submarine of the type "Agosta-90B". In 2016 and 2018, there were two successful test launches of this rocket from a submersible platform.
The fleet of tactical and operational-tactical ballistic missiles (BR) is represented by two models. One of them is a solid – fuel BR "Nasr" with a range of 60 kilometers, weighing 1200 kilograms and carrying 400 kilograms. This BR is stated as a response to a possible Indian blitzkrieg called "Cold Start", carried out with the help of pre-deployed tank-mechanized groups of up to 10 brigades deep into Pakistani territory in order to reach densely populated territories and Pakistani nuclear facilities without the use of nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis have 24 self-propelled launchers for this type of missile, four missiles each. Another operational-tactical missile is the Abdali solid-fuel BR, deployed since 2017, with a range of 180 kilometers and a mass of about two tons.
There are 16 four-axis self-propelled launchers in service. Of the old missiles capable of carrying a nuclear charge, the Shaheen-2 solid-fuel two-stage rocket with a mass of 25 tons, carrying one ton, and a range (according to various estimates) of 1500-2000 kilometers is known. Some experts are skeptical about the claimed ability of its head unit to maneuver in order to counter missile defense.
The greatest pride among the Pakistanis is their two-stage ballistic missile "Shaheen-3" with an average range of 2750 kilometers. It allows you to hit any targets in India from most of Pakistan. So far, there have been two test launches of this missile, and it has not yet entered service.
By 2025, Pakistan and India may have a total of 400 to 500 nuclear warheads with a capacity of up to several hundred kilotons. It is very difficult to predict whether these arsenals will remain nuclear deterrent weapons or whether the parties will still risk using them in some phase of a new armed conflict. It should also take into account the high level of terrorist threat in Pakistan, the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and in the region as a whole. The country's leadership and the Pakistani security forces have to pay increased attention to security issues in the storage and transportation of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles in order to prevent their capture by militants of the Pakistani Taliban and other radical Islamist groups. it should also be borne in mind that at one time, the pakistani nuclear scientist abdul qadir khan carried out illegal trade in documentation and uranium enrichment technologies, including gas centrifuges. now iran, saudi arabia, north korea, and other countries are showing interest in nuclear technologies, so the preservation of the nuclear nonproliferation regime is also a problem.
stanislav ivanov, leading researcher at the center for international security, imemo ras, candidate of historical sciences
The newspaper "Military-Industrial Courier", published in issue # 48 (861) for December 15, 2020