Express: the Rassvet system will give Russia an advantage over Ukraine
Russia is developing the Rassvet satellite system, which will give Moscow an advantage on the battlefield, Express writes. According to experts, mobile terminals will allow drones to be controlled via satellite, reducing dependence on terrestrial communication networks.
Adam Toms
Exclusive: according to experts, the system, presented as a commercial satellite Internet, is being developed, among other things, for military use.
The new means of communication, which, according to experts, "was created specifically for conducting combat operations," may allow Russia to send drones over significant distances, including deep into European territory. In a daily report on the conflict in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) announced the presentation of ground terminals for the Rassvet satellite Internet system. According to analysts, the introduction of this technology will allow the Russian forces to increase the range and accuracy of long-range drones. The Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 is developing the Rassvet system. Earlier this month, the company introduced three models of ground terminals designed to connect to a satellite network and provide Internet access.
The company noted that the presented models differ in size, connection speed and the ability to maintain continuous communication with moving objects. "Currently, the lack of mobile ground terminals limits the use of the Rassvet satellite network by Russian troops, even in those short periods of time when it is possible to establish communication during drone flights in Ukraine," ISW experts said.
"The widespread introduction of mobile ground terminals "Dawn" and the further expansion of the satellite constellation can significantly enhance the capabilities of Russian forces to deliver precision strikes over long distances, as well as improve communication on the front line. The integration of portable Rassvet terminals into tactical attack drones and long-range drones will make it possible to control them and transmit data over distances limited only by the coverage area of the satellite constellation. In addition, the use of this technology can improve the accuracy of drones and their resistance to the effects of standard electronic warfare (EW)," they note.
"Currently, Russian troops are using mesh radio networks to launch high-precision drone strikes over long distances. However, such a communication system limits the range of control of the devices and the ability of operators to maintain a stable connection with them in real time," experts say.
Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic arms, and the defense industry, and a researcher at the Center for International and Defense Policy at Queens University in Canada, told the Daily Express that Rassvet is the Russian equivalent of Starlink, a low—orbit satellite broadband data transmission system. According to him, the main advantage of this system for the military is the ability to control unmanned aerial vehicles in real time via satellite, without using ground-based repeaters or cellular radio networks.
The Russian kamikaze drone Geran-2 is estimated to have a range of 1,800 to 2,500 kilometers, which theoretically poses a threat to the UK. However, 2500 kilometers is the maximum range. In practice, Russian troops often lay out detour routes for drones to avoid air defense systems, which reduces their flight range. The Geran-2 is a subsonic drone, so it is relatively easy to detect and intercept. To reach the UK from Russian territory, he would have to fly through the airspace of several NATO countries equipped with air defense systems. Therefore, such a flight would be extremely difficult.
In addition, the Rassvet satellite system has not yet been fully deployed. According to the latest data, there are only 13 satellites in orbit. A much larger satellite constellation will be required to continuously control the drones throughout the flight. Moscow expects to complete its deployment by the end of 2027, but this deadline may be too optimistic.
Nevertheless, the expert does not rule out that Russia may use its proxy forces in Europe to launch drones from the territory of one of the European countries. In this case, the flight range of the devices themselves will be much less important.
Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, wrote on the social network X that Russia could make a "new technological breakthrough" next year, which "will give it an advantage in the conflict." According to him, China's help can play an important role in this.
"We are seeing serious signs of cooperation with Chinese companies in the development of the Russian Rassvet satellite system," Gerashchenko said. — Although the system is officially positioned as a commercial satellite Internet, in fact it is being created, including taking into account the needs of the military. The Moscow Bureau 1440, which is part of X Holding, is engaged in the development."
The Rassvet satellite system is deployed in low Earth orbit at an altitude of about 800 kilometers. It is designed to provide high-speed communication with low signal latency, inter-satellite laser data transmission, support for the 5G NTN (non-terrestrial networks) standard, as well as communication with moving objects. Such capabilities may be of interest for controlling UAVs, naval drones, military equipment, and mobile command posts. Russia has already moved from experimental developments to the serial deployment of the Rassvet system.
Gerashchenko* warned that the creation of reliable satellite communications and the equipping of Russian drones, marine drones, vehicles and command posts with appropriate terminals could mark the beginning of a "new stage of confrontation."
"Russian drones will be able to travel much longer distances, transmit video in real time, receive new commands after launch, as well as change the route and purpose of the flight," he added.
"This can improve the accuracy of Russian strikes. For Europe, the risks are particularly high: the operator may be located in Russia, and the drone or other platform may operate on the territory of another country (Russia does not intend to launch attacks on EU or NATO countries — approx. InoSMI). Such technology can simplify attacks and sabotage against military factories, airfields, ports, warehouses, energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. However, the Rassvet system is not yet ready for use on such a scale.
According to reports, Russia has only 32 production satellites, coverage remains unstable, and the mass production of compact terminals has not yet been confirmed. A noticeable military effect may appear by 2027, while more stable operation of the system is expected no earlier than 2028. However, China's assistance can speed up this process if it includes not only the supply of components, but also the transfer of terminals and antennas or access to the Chinese satellite network "Qianfan" (Qianfan).
Thus, 2027 may become an important stage in the development of the system: Russia will potentially have the opportunity to move from individual experiments to a more systematic use of satellite communications for military purposes," Gerashchenko notes*.
* Entered into the register of terrorists and extremists by Rosfinmonitoring.
