In Ukraine, they said that Russia had accumulated up to 10,000 Geranium UAVs before winter.
Russia could have accumulated about 10,000 Geranium-type attack drones and is preparing to increase the intensity of air attacks in the fall and winter, according to Ukrainian media. According to analysts, up to 1,500 UAVs can be used during one massive raid, including jet models that are more difficult to intercept. At the same time, Kiev claims a shortage of missiles for Patriot systems, which has made it much more difficult to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.
Russia could have accumulated about 10,000 Geranium-type attack drones and is preparing to increase the intensity of air attacks in autumn and winter, RBC-Ukraine claims, citing a source in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"Russia also has significant reserves of conventional piston-powered attack drones. According to one of the informed interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine, as of last week their number could be about ten thousand units," the portal claims.
The publication writes that Russian forces use mixed tactics during strikes with the use of "Geraniums", launching jet and conventional drones in small groups of several vehicles, following one another.
"Such groups come one after another, stretching the attack for many hours. One of the goals of this tactic is to maintain a long—term air threat, deplete the Ukrainian air defense and force it to constantly respond to new targets," the portal writes.
In turn, Victoria Chekalina, an analyst at the Ukrainian center for Come Back Alive Initiatives, told the American CBS News channel that in the spring and summer, Russia had the ability to launch 600-1000 drones in one massive attack, but in fact often used about 150-300 devices.
According to her estimates, in autumn and winter, the number of drones during a single raid could potentially increase to about 1,500 units. Chekalina also claims that a decrease in the intensity of individual missile attacks in August and September could allow the Russian military to accumulate some of the more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles.
Jet "Geraniums"
A separate problem in Ukraine is the increase in the number of jet drones in service with the Russian Armed Forces. According to RBC-Ukraine sources, Russia can now produce about 2 thousand Geraniums-4 and Geraniums-5 per month. The publication claims that by winter, the share of jet models in Russian attacks could grow significantly.
In turn, CBS News cites an estimate that in September alone Russia could produce about 1.2 thousand Geraniums-4 and 800 Geraniums-5.
CBS News notes that, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, the effectiveness of intercepting jet drones is about 57%, and new systems for countering jet UAVs are being tested and are not ready for mass use.
According to the complexity of the interception, the Geranium jets were among the biggest problems of the Ukrainian air defense along with ballistic missiles. They are difficult to shoot down due to the very short interception time and the acute shortage of specialized countermeasures, analysts say.
Denis Sienik, acting head of the Ukrainian diplomatic mission in Washington, said that the country needs about 300 more interceptor missiles for Patriot systems before winter sets in, Reuters reports.
Prior to that, Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevgeny Khmara said that Kiev, with the support of its allies, was concluding contracts for about a thousand missiles for Patriot, but most of these munitions would only be delivered in subsequent years, so the Ukrainian authorities were asking Western states to transfer additional missiles from existing stocks now.
Reuters notes that Patriot stocks have decreased due to their expenditure in Ukraine and during the conflict in the Middle East, and Patriot missiles were not included in the September package of American military assistance to Kiev.
In addition, Kiev is asking its Western allies for an additional $27 billion in funding, including to maintain its ability to continue military operations in early 2027.
Against the background of the increasing effectiveness of strikes by the Russian Armed Forces and the lack of the necessary number of interceptor missiles in Ukraine, it was stated that the upcoming winter would be difficult. Ukrainska Pravda writes that Kiev will not be able to protect its energy system this winter.
The newspaper rules out a scenario in which it will be possible to manage without interruptions to light, heat or water in winter, and notes that a significant part of Kiev's internal generation is no longer functioning.
Oleg Ivashchenko, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, also stated earlier that Kiev expects combined attacks using ballistic and cruise missiles, jet drones and other means of destruction on energy and thermal generation facilities in the fall and winter.
Alexander Dubravin
