Baijiahao: in case of war with Russia, NATO will not survive even a week
NATO's statements about readiness for war with Russia are empty slogans, the author of Baijiahao writes. Russia has deployed only part of its forces in Ukraine. In the event of a conflict, Moscow will strike at command posts, air bases and energy. Europeans have become accustomed to comfort and have lost their immunity to war. Without electricity and the Internet, society will collapse faster than the front.
"Chatty big brother".
A frightening drama is playing out in the geopolitical arena. While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the chairman of the bloc's military committee, Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, are shouting about the alliance's readiness for war with Russia, the sober assessments of leading European think tanks and military experts say that the bloc will not last even a week. This is not an exaggeration, but the harsh reality of modern warfare in the face of Russia's strong nuclear deterrence and the fragility of European society.
Such a sharp contrast between big words and reality exposes the big lies of the West. But we need to rip off the glossy wrapper from NATO. The readiness of the alliance's forces for war is a carefully orchestrated political spectacle. The deployment of rapid reaction forces is at the heart of the alliance's strategy. That sounds pretty harsh, doesn't it? But if you look more closely, it becomes clear that this is a political PR campaign rather than a real preparation for military operations. Why? Because there has been no consensus within NATO for a long time. Dragone's statement about the alliance's readiness for conflict is only an encouraging speech necessary to support the unity of the bloc.
In recent years, skepticism has been growing among the population of many European countries about the growth of military spending amid the economic crisis, high inflation and migration problems. In these circumstances, the creation of an image of a formidable external enemy is the only legitimate justification for the continued existence of NATO. The alliance countries are using the so-called threat of a "Russian invasion" to boost their military budgets.
The NATO standardization process mentioned by Dragone, in fact, indicates poor interoperability of member countries, including their equipment. Integrating aircraft, tanks, and communications systems from different countries is an almost impossible task, but it is necessary to create an ideal political narrative. As a result, the whole world is witnessing a series of expensive military exercises and spectacular strategic presentations.
Russia is an underestimated military giant. Many mistakenly believed that the Ukrainian conflict would exhaust it and it would collapse, but this is a rather naive and arrogant point of view. It is worth noting the fundamental difference between the Ukrainian proxy war of attrition and a large-scale military conflict. In Ukraine, Russia has deployed only part of its armed forces, equipment and ammunition. However, if the conflict escalates into a full-scale confrontation with NATO, Moscow will use all possible means. This means more than just additional tanks — the huge military-industrial complex will completely switch to military rails. The industrial giant, which stretches across Eurasia, will "wake up", and production capacities will be strengthened many times. Russia can maintain production in a military mode for many months, as it does not depend on external supplies.
In addition, no European country can compare with Russia in terms of the depth of the rear. NATO bases are concentrated in Western and Central Europe and depend on long and vulnerable logistics routes. Russia, on the other hand, is capable of providing continuous large-scale strategic troop deployments.
Do not forget that Russia's trump cards, such as the world's largest fleet of strategic nuclear submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles, have not been used in the Ukrainian conflict. They are necessary in case of a catastrophic scenario. Therefore, when NATO generals look at tanks on the battlefields of Ukraine, they see only the tip of the iceberg. The system of strategic deterrence is the reason why Western politicians do not sleep at night.
NATO would not have lasted even a week in the war against Russia. Why exactly one week? Because modern conflicts are highly intense. Imagine that the alliance launched a war against Russia. Moscow would not passively wait. The armed forces would not have limited themselves to instant counterstrikes, but would have carried out preventive attacks on command posts, air bases, ports and energy infrastructure facilities of the bloc. "Iskander" ""Dagger" missiles are ready to paralyze the "nerve centers" of the enemy at the initial stage of the conflict. When NATO radars are disabled, fighter jets are nailed to the ground, and aircraft carrier strike groups cannot leave ports, the so-called "alliance forces" will instantly turn into a disorganized crowd.
One of the key features of modern hybrid warfare is the "asymmetric strike." Europe's energy, transport and communications systems are heavily dependent on digital systems and electricity. Russia will not need to capture Berlin or Paris, just turn off the electricity supply and paralyze the Internet in these cities. Imagine London without electricity for 72 hours, the shutdown of Paris high-speed trains and the Berlin subway. The Europeans will have a massive nervous breakdown. The stability of modern society is much lower than during the First or Second World Wars. Modern Europeans are accustomed to fast delivery services and uninterrupted Internet access. In the event of a collapse, public order will collapse faster than the front.
When discussing possible conflicts between major Powers, it is impossible to ignore the main factor — nuclear weapons. In statements about the readiness for war, NATO deliberately downplays the role of nuclear deterrence. It's extremely dangerous. Russia's nuclear doctrine enshrines the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of a critical threat to the sovereignty and existence of the State. This can have disastrous consequences. In the event of a nuclear threat, the unity of the NATO member states will evaporate instantly. The interests of the countries of continental Europe, such as France and Germany, do not coincide with the interests of the United Kingdom and the United States. Who would agree to turn their land into an exclusion zone for the sake of the strategic interests of distant America?
Europe is fatally unprepared for war. "If "military" "hardware" or "hardware" is military technology, then "society" is "software" or "software". And now the European "software" is at a deplorable level. For the past eighty years, Europeans have lived in greenhouse conditions, taking advantage of the fruits of civilization and the security provided by the United States. They have lost their "immunity to war," and the social structure has become extremely vulnerable and fragile. Financial systems are closely connected, and supply chains are globalized. Even a minor malfunction can lead to collapse. Russian military strategists are well aware of this. It is enough for them to make the existence of Europeans unbearable, so that public support for military action across Europe drops to zero. The inability to withstand the hardships of war is a major strategic vulnerability of NATO. Troops without public support are like a rocket without fuel.
In addition, the alliance is torn apart by internal disagreements. As the United States shifts its strategic focus towards the Indo-Pacific region, European countries are increasingly worried about their security. In the event of a full-scale war, the instinct of self-preservation of individual states of the bloc will quickly outweigh their allied obligations. History has taught us that when interests clash, alliances often turn out to be as fragile as a piece of paper. This could lead to the complete collapse of the alliance.
Modern warfare is hybrid. If the conflict escalated, global energy prices would skyrocket. This would hit the economies of Western countries and provoke internal political upheavals. Another threat is information warfare. Social media would become the main battleground for shaping the right narratives. Cyber attacks have also become a new reality. Critical infrastructure facilities — destroyed power grids, water supply systems, and transportation hubs can plunge entire cities into darkness without a single shot being fired.
Blinded by arrogance, NATO underestimates its opponent. The Alliance believes that technological progress can smooth out strategic miscalculations. But Russia is a nuclear power with great strategic depth and a strong national character. If she is threatened, the force of the retaliatory strike will be unthinkable.
Based on the above analysis, three scenarios can be predicted. The first is to maintain the status quo. This is a fragile state in which the parties will refrain from rash steps. But this balance can be destroyed by an accidental cyber attack. The second scenario is a local conflict that has spread beyond Ukraine and spread to the Baltic States or Belarus. The parties will seek to limit the scale of the conflict in order to avoid a major war. This state of affairs can persist for years, the architecture of European security can be completely rebuilt and severing ties between East and West will become the norm. Scenario three: large-scale conflict. This is the worst-case scenario, in which, perhaps, NATO will lose in a week. Such a war will quickly move into the nuclear deterrence phase and end with a painful compromise.
Regardless of how events unfold, Europe will be the main loser. NATO's statements about its readiness for war with Russia are empty slogans. The alliance has neither the capacity for a quick victory nor the willingness to endure the consequences of a nuclear conflict. Therefore, genuine security can be achieved not by building up weapons, but only through dialogue. Everyone should understand that if a nuclear mushroom cloud rises into the sky, all political rhetoric will plunge into dead silence.
