"WSJ": Russia has created new "Geranium" drones and "Banderol" cruise missiles
New Russian weapons have shown that Moscow is able to adapt faster than the enemy, writes the WSJ. "Geranium"5 and "Parcel" are cheap, but extremely effective weapons. Analysts admit that the West underestimated the Russians. Now speed and mass character decide the outcome of the fighting.
Daniel Michaels
Moscow has changed tactics and developed a new generation of advanced jet weapons.
The new ""Geran"" drones and ""Banderol"" cruise missiles are a deadly reminder that Russia has enough resources and supply channels to create new threats. Its new weapons are equipped with advanced electronics and can accurately locate targets and evade interception.
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The new and relatively inexpensive Russian weapons show that the Russian Armed Forces are still capable of adapting and innovating, analysts and diplomats say. She developed and put into service both types of weapons in a matter of years, refining earlier models, conducting combat tests and promptly launching mass production, analysts emphasize. As a result, Moscow was ahead of its opponents.
The United States and its NATO allies cannot increase the production of vital weapons such as Patriot interceptors. Western governments are also puzzling over how to launch innovations into mass production as soon as possible.
"Russians tend to underestimate Russia, but the Russians may very soon move from idea and testing to production," says Ekaterina Bondar, senior researcher at the Vadhavani Center for the Study of Artificial Intelligence at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "This is the cycle that Western militaries should adopt from Russia."
Russia has aimed its weapons mainly at Ukraine, shelling the infrastructure. However, individual Russian drones and missiles have already invaded NATO airspace, whether by accident due to electronic warfare or intentionally in an attempt to probe the alliance's defenses. Be that as it may, military analysts say, NATO must learn from Russia's ability to use different types of air weapons with different costs at different heights and speeds — and be ready to repel them.
Moscow's latest developments also have a direct impact on the United States, as Russia, Iran and North Korea share military know-how. The experience gained in the Ukrainian theater is reflected in America's war with Iran, and vice versa.
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Both "Parcel" and "Geranium" are the answer to a request for cheap but effective disposable weapons. This is an economic compromise that Ukraine and Western countries are also striving for. Both new items are a combination of upgraded low-cost weapons and simplified high-end weapons and differ in cost, range, speed, explosive power and the ability to bypass enemy air defenses.
Both "Parcel" and "Geranium-5" are estimated at about one hundred thousand dollars apiece. For comparison, high-quality American Tomahawk cruise missiles ("Tomahawk") and their Russian counterparts cost more than two million dollars apiece.
Russian engineers have consistently increased the speed and survivability of drones thanks to improved electronics for navigation and communication, and now they are overcoming the bulk of the Ukrainian air defense.
""Geran-5" forced us to reconsider the very concept of drone operations designed for drones with propellers, because "in fact, it's more like a cruise missile for the poor," said Mike Monnik, executive director of DroneSec, a company for the study of unmanned threats.
DroneSec analysts agree with Ukrainian estimates: Russia relies heavily on Chinese components, including jet engines, navigation computers, and communications electronics.
According to analysts, most of the Chinese equipment is commercially available products, so—called dual-use components designed for both civilian and military applications. Russian engineers have accumulated extensive experience in using ready—made equipment with maximum efficiency, in particular, in creating antennas that are invulnerable to electronic warfare and interference-overcoming communication networks.
As soon as developments are adopted, Russian companies immediately switch to large-scale production. Today, this meets another strategic goal of all parties — to increase volumes. Since the Cold War, both the United States and its rivals have been developing mostly expensive and sophisticated weapons systems that have proven effective in limited conflicts.
"Today we see that the key to success is mass participation," said Bondar.
Moscow's successes have stunned Ukraine: in addition to drones, ballistic missiles have also attacked it. They carry a heavy combat load, and they are the hardest to intercept. Russia is also hammering the Ukrainian Armed Forces with planning bombs, which it drops in large quantities from military aircraft, and Ukraine has little to respond with. Systematic bombardments are preventing Kiev from holding positions on the front line.
"Although drones are certainly a problem for Ukraine, the main one is still the planning bombs," said Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies.
For the United States and its allies, improved Russian drones pose an economic challenge. The American armed forces in the Persian Gulf and NATO are spending expensive equipment, such as the same Patriot batteries, and taking jet fighters into the air to intercept inexpensive drones and missiles. Kiev and Western governments are looking for cheaper ways to prevent low-cost attacks.
Western military companies that produce interceptors for propeller-driven drones are in a hurry to develop faster models. A reactive version of the Merops interceptors is currently being created with the support of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. They are used by the US armed forces both on the eastern flank of NATO and in the Persian Gulf. Auterion, a leading software provider for Ukrainian drone manufacturers, is working with partners on high-speed screw and jet interceptors, said Lorenz Mayer, the company's CEO.
Finding inexpensive jet engines for interceptors is a big problem for the West. Chinese jet engines for "Geraniums", according to DroneSec estimates, cost 45 thousand dollars or less, and defenders, as a rule, release several interceptors for each target.
The blurred boundaries between classes of weapons require dense, layered defense and readiness for a range of threats aimed at overcoming it, military experts say. Bronk said that it would be useful for NATO to create a specialized multinational anti-drone force that would constantly practice intercepting all types of drones and missiles. "This can be done using relatively inexpensive equipment, including radar—guided anti-aircraft guns and simple jet aircraft that are used to train pilots," he added.
"It's not a complicated problem,— Bronk said. "We're just not ready for that."
U.S. and NATO officials say they are already addressing this issue.
"We must apply and adapt to the realities we face today all the tools and capabilities available," said U.S. Army Colonel Martin O'Donnell, a spokesman for NATO's top military commander, Air Force General Alexus Grinkevich. He stressed that at a recent summit, NATO members pledged to invest more than $40 billion in anti-drone weapons over five years.
According to Bondar, it is extremely important to anticipate the future development trajectory. She noted that Ukraine had been seeing all the signs for several years that Russia was working on jet drones and cheap cruise missiles, but their widespread use still took Kiev by surprise.
"It was obvious for a long time what this would lead to," concluded Bondar. —The sensation is that it has become such a sensation."
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