Andrey Patrakov: "If we extend the life of such an aircraft, all the safety risks will come to the surface"
The vague prospects for the production of new domestic aircraft make it increasingly necessary to turn to the past. In the latest news, Russia is preparing to extend the service life of AN—28 aircraft developed back in the USSR from 40 to 50 years. The relevant certification work was ordered by GosNII GA, subordinate to Rosaviation.
The contract value is more than 6 million rubles, and the deadline for its completion is December 15, 2028. Who became the performer was not disclosed.
After learning this news, I immediately started looking at the An-28 accident statistics. In July 2021, an An-28 of SiLA Airlines (Siberian Light Aviation), operating a flight from Kedrovy to Tomsk, made a hard landing due to the shutdown of both engines, all passengers and crew survived. Shortly before, another Antonov An-26 crashed during a passenger flight Petropavlovsk—Kamchatsky — Palana. None of the 28 on board survived.
"After two plane crashes in a row involving An aircraft It's time for Russia to stop using them," said Yuri Slyusar, then head of the United Aircraft Corporation.
According to him, the IL-114−300 was supposed to replace the entire Antonov family. The start of its serial production was scheduled for 2023. However, the car received a certificate for this very serial production only in June of this year.
As a result, it was decided to carry out certification in a short time and extend the life of the aircraft, which, in fact, has already exhausted its flight reserve. There is one more point: we cannot make any constructive changes to the An-28 and AN-26: the O. Antonov Design Bureau remained in Ukraine.
Security experts are skeptical about the An-28 and An-26 revival project. Andrey Patrakov, the founder of the RUN AVIA flight safety service, shared his thoughts on this issue.
— The commission can extend the service life of the aircraft if desired, but what next? The AN-24 had its airworthiness certificate extended, but the result was its crash near Tynda on July 24 last year.
The plane crashed into a hill while landing at the airport of the city of Tynda. All 48 people on board were killed — 42 passengers and 6 crew members. Officially, everything was blamed on pilot errors, but airplanes of the last century have hopelessly outdated safety standards.
"SP": Maybe they want to recycle and modernize the An-28 aircraft?
"That's impossible. We have no design documentation left for this aircraft, the Antonov Design Bureau is now based in Ukraine.
But it is the designer who designates the maximum airworthiness period of the aircraft. There are versions that the deadline for the An-28 was 45 years. Now they want to take airplanes into the sky, which are even older.
Even if you don't operate the aircraft, keep it in a hangar, after some time, and after 40 years for sure, the wiring will start to "crumble", the rubber will deform, the wires will become bare.
At the same time, in order to change the wiring, the entire aircraft must be disassembled and then reassembled. It is difficult to do this, economically impractical, and impossible, given the cost of the contract for certification work — about 6 million rubles. This is not enough to upgrade the fleet of all or even several An-28s.
If we extend the life of such an aircraft, all the safety risks will come to the surface," the flight safety expert believes.
The topic of the An-28's return to service did not arise by chance. We still have a dead end situation with regional aviation: the Baikal project is essentially frozen. In fact, we are talking about the bankruptcy of the Ural Civil Aviation Plant, where Baikal was supposed to be produced. The Ministry of Industry and Trade appealed to the Moscow Arbitration Court with two claims against UZGA JSC for a total amount of about 4.8 billion rubles.
The Baikal project has been developed by UZGA since 2019, but its launch dates have been repeatedly postponed. In 2025, it was reported that the Ministry of Industry and Trade was considering options to freeze the development of Baikal or transfer the project to another company due to "dramatic errors" in the design.
But the issue of regional aviation had to be solved somehow. That's when they remembered about the An-28. It is worth recalling: the AN-28 is a multi—purpose light aircraft for short takeoff and landing, designed to carry up to 18 passengers on local airlines, as well as cargo with a total weight of up to 1,750 kg and mail. It is also used for patrolling, geological exploration and search and rescue operations.
The AN-28 made its first flight in 1973. According to the registry of the Federal Air Transport Agency, six An-28 units are currently in operation in Russia — in the airlines Siberian Light Aviation (SiLA) and Aviation Search and Rescue.
How justified is the return of this aircraft to service? SP has contacted Sergey Detenyshev, Chairman of the Board of the Association of Small Aviation Enterprises, for comment.
— In conditions when the manufacturing plant of the Baikal regional aircraft is virtually bankrupt, they began to look for ways out in a hurry. And then they remembered about the An-28. To extend the life of this machine, in my opinion, means to recognize: "Let's fly on such planes until they start to fall apart in the air."
I would like to note that GosNII GA, subordinate to Rosaviation, is not able to calculate the "safety margin" of this aircraft in the absence of technical documentation.
And she's in Kiev. But the warranty period of use depends on vibrations, bends of the structure and many other components that only the creators know.
In addition, there are things that simply "age" time: this is, for example, the oxidation of aluminum wires; the duralumin from which the aircraft is made can crack.
SP: GosNII GA has allocated 6 million rubles for certification work on the An-28. This amount looks somehow suspicious against the background of the billions that are being invested in our domestic aviation industry...
— I believe this amount will be used exclusively for paper certification and audit.
"SP": How do you assess the prospects for the operation of the "oldies" An-28?
— It is clear that this decision is made out of desperation. There is no breakthrough in regional aviation today. On the other hand, compared to the Baikal, the car, although old, is more spacious — it carries twice as many passengers. And the An-28 itself is twin-engined, unlike the Baikal. In my opinion, they didn't go into the details much.
In general, this is a difficult step to follow: instead of removing barriers to small aircraft that are "rushing into battle" in the literal and figurative sense, we are acting on the principle of "forward to the past."
Irina Mishina
