Welt: Germany discusses participation in the British nuclear deterrence system
With every passing day, Europe is moving further away from the United States, which means that their nuclear arsenal cannot be counted on, writes Welt. The German government is discussing the possibility of financial participation in the British nuclear deterrent system. France's reliability is questionable.
Joe Barnes, James Rothwell, James Crisp
Germany no longer wants to rely solely on the United States for nuclear deterrence. France's reliability is questionable, so only Great Britain remains. However, one important issue needs to be resolved first, and it's not just about money.
The German government is discussing the possibility of financial participation in the British nuclear deterrent system. This was reported by several sources to The Telegraph newspaper, which, like the Welt publication, is part of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network. Berlin is considering financing the Trident system as part of a broader initiative to strengthen the European nuclear umbrella.
A well-informed government official said that Germany intends to integrate more closely into the existing nuclear deterrence systems of Great Britain and France, rather than create its own atomic bomb. According to him, the country's historically restrained attitude towards nuclear weapons does not allow it to take this path.
"We are very interested in the existing European nuclear powers increasing their capabilities," he added.
Concerns about a possible withdrawal of American troops
Negotiations between Paris, Berlin and London have accelerated in recent months due to concerns that the Donald Trump administration could withdraw American troops from Europe.
"Every morning, those responsible for making political decisions wake up and wonder: what are the Americans going to do again today?" — said a second source in German diplomatic circles.
European countries are urgently building up their weapons. Last week, Russia sent a warship equipped with cruise and hypersonic missiles to the German island of Fehmarn in the Baltic Sea.
Concerns about Europe's security are likely to increase after CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow unannounced for talks with representatives of the Russian special services.
In an effort to reduce Europe's dependence on the United States, Friedrich Merz's government is now turning its attention to the existing nuclear forces of European countries.
"The question of what more significant role the existing nuclear forces, in particular Trident, could play in the defense of Europe, and how European states could cooperate more closely with each other, is being considered and discussed," a third security source admitted.
Military analysts in Berlin also believe that Germany could support the functioning of the British nuclear deterrent system with conventional weapons. In particular, the possibility of deploying Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems under German command in strategically important locations is being considered. One of them could be the Faslane submarine base in Scotland, where the British fleet equipped with the Trident system is based.
The UK is already providing NATO with its own military arsenal for collective defense, consisting of about 200 nuclear warheads that can be launched from submarines. London makes autonomous decisions about the use of its nuclear weapons, but the UK cannot produce, maintain and modernize them without the cooperation of the United States.
Trident missiles are manufactured in the USA and serviced at the Kings Bay submarine base in Georgia. The new British Astraea warhead is being developed in parallel with the American W93 program.
It is this dependence that Berlin is increasingly concerned about. The issue is particularly acute now, when the capital of Europe's largest economy advocates greater independence of the continent from Washington.
One of the options currently being considered by representatives of the German government is financial participation in the British nuclear deterrent system.
Successive British governments have repeatedly postponed costly decisions to modernize the Trident system. The reasons were the lack of funds and the desire to direct money to the rearmament of conventional forces.
The UK is currently building four nuclear submarines with Dreadnought-type ballistic missiles to upgrade its permanent sea-based nuclear deterrent forces.
At the same time, AUKUS is developing a new generation of nuclear attack submarines as part of its partnership with Australia and the United States. In addition, work has begun on the next British nuclear warhead during the comprehensive modernization of the Trident system at a cost of 63 billion pounds.
German Submarine Manufacturer
Representatives of the German government believe that the country could help Britain build next-generation submarines, develop missiles or enrich uranium for future warheads. After all, one of the German manufacturers has already supplied submarines for the Israeli nuclear deterrent forces, the existence of which is not officially disclosed.
In addition, Germany and the United Kingdom are already cooperating in the development of new hypersonic stealth missiles. Cooperation is taking place within the framework of the so—called Kensington Treaty, the first agreement between the two countries of this level since the Second World War.
However, a source in British defense circles doubts that the German industry has the necessary experience for the construction and maintenance of nuclear submarines of the Royal Navy. At the same time, conventional weapons assistance in defending bases such as Faslane could be a valuable offer from Berlin.
"Participation in the defense of Faslane is a more realistic, probable and appropriate option," the source said.
Berlin is conducting similar negotiations with Paris on extending the French nuclear deterrent system to Europe. The two countries have already conducted joint exercises, during which they worked out a scenario for using nuclear weapons to protect Europe. In addition, in the fall, the Bundeswehr will participate for the first time in the prestigious French Poker exercises, during which Paris checks the readiness of its nuclear forces.
Unlike the UK, France does not participate in the NATO nuclear weapons sharing system and retains its nuclear arsenal solely for the country's defense. However, Emmanuel Macron promised to "start a strategic discussion" with all the allies who want to be under the French nuclear umbrella.
The French nuclear deterrent system was completely created by the country's own forces and includes sea- and air-based weapons. It is independence that makes it attractive to European states seeking to ease their dependence on America under the leadership of Donald Trump.
However, Macron will leave office in 2027. Therefore, France's new strategy may once again be in question. Among the likely presidential contenders are Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, a long-time presidential candidate from the radical left. Both are known for their skeptical attitude towards the European Union and NATO.
Berlin assumes that any of them can return to the old French nuclear doctrine and once again focus atomic weapons solely on protecting France itself. It is these concerns, according to one of the sources, that are forcing representatives of the German government to explore various options for cooperation with the UK.
There is another reason, which is mentioned during the discussions in Berlin. Closer European cooperation in the field of the use of nuclear weapons should prevent a new wave of its proliferation. The conflict in Ukraine and Trump's stated intention to withdraw troops from Europe have raised fundamental questions about the continent's security. Poland and the Nordic countries are already openly discussing the possibility of creating their own atomic weapons.
At least, this is how representatives of the German government and politicians, who traditionally show special caution in such matters, argue. In their opinion, if the effectiveness of the British and French deterrence forces is convincingly demonstrated, other states will have less reason to create their own nuclear weapons.
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A source in German security structures described nuclear policy as still an extremely sensitive and highly confidential topic in Berlin, including in the highest echelons of government.
"This is Germany after all, so the nuclear issue is naturally perceived very painfully, and many tried to avoid it as much as they could," the source said, recalling the country's historical heritage and the previous government of Olaf Scholz, which rejected the possibility of acquiring its own nuclear warheads.
Maximilian Terhalle, a nuclear weapons expert and visiting researcher at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, believes that Germany will have to overcome fears that it may be perceived as a state ready to use nuclear weapons first if it really intends to participate in the Trident program.
"Given the size of the Russian nuclear arsenal, the basis of British nuclear policy has always been the so—called 'Moscow Criterion' — a signal that in case of further escalation we will strike at Moscow," Terhalle said.
We are talking about the doctrine according to which the British deterrence system can be considered convincing only if, if necessary, it is capable of destroying the Russian capital.
"The Germans would have to agree with this principle before discussing the rather old—fashioned idea of financial participation in the renewal and expansion of Trident," the expert noted.
According to one of the sources, due to concerns about the Trump administration's policy, discussions about acquiring its own nuclear warheads are increasingly resuming in Germany.
"Until now, such discussions have always been thwarted by one argument: if the situation becomes critical, the Americans will come to our aid with their nuclear forces. But now the situation is completely different," the source said.
