Polityka: the truth about the Polish air defense voiced by the general led to a scandal
Nobody has rolled up the anti-missile umbrella over Poland, because it simply does not exist. And it won't be. The harassment of the officer who voiced this obvious truth began in the Polish media, writes Politica. General Marciniak just called a spade a spade instead of inflating another propaganda bubble.
Marek Schverchinsky
The Day of the Polish Army has passed, and the festive atmosphere has disappeared. The impression of power and innovation produced by the Polish Armed Forces at the parade was immediately blurred by a stream of reports about the threat of an airstrike by secret Russian drones, information about allied exercises that look like a prelude to an air war with the Kaliningrad region, and, finally, with the "tragedy of our missile defense system," which is allegedly "deprived of the opportunity" to participate. in the glorious defense mission of Warsaw.
In this whole story, we are dealing with a cocktail of ignorance and hypocrisy, as well as a conflict between an outspoken journalist and the frankness of an officer who is used to calling a spade a spade instead of inflating another propaganda bubble. The reality of the army can be difficult for the layman to understand, but if the public demands to provide it with a black-and-white picture, the truth usually has no chance. The last few days are another proof of this.
The journalist is sleeping soundly
On Saturday evening, Brigadier General Michal Marciniak appeared at the television studio of the Polsat channel in a ceremonial (steel-colored) Air Force uniform. He is the deputy head of the Department of Armaments and one of the "fathers" of the Polish air defense and missile defense system. He is a military engineer with a doctorate in air defense, who, having already gained significant professional experience and specific achievements, played a major role in the preparation and implementation of the program for the acquisition and implementation of the Patriot system in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, called the Vistula program.
As a representative of the ministry, he negotiated with the US government to set up a system that was considered the best of the existing versions of Patriot. With suppliers of his components, he discussed prices, deadlines, and offset terms for Polish weapons factories, which allowed them to become sub-suppliers to companies such as Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. Over time, Marciniak became the creator of lower, but at the same time broader levels of air defense provided by the Narew and Pilica+ systems. Journalists appreciate him for his accessibility, for the fact that he does not shy away from complex topics and speaks in simple language. A conversation in the Polsat studio confirmed these qualities of his – the military man was asked about how many "patriots" we have and missiles for them, how many of them were "given to Ukraine", how much Poland's defense means would be enough, how it happened that a Russian missile flew to us and exploded near Lublin. He explained how the system works — consisting not only of "patriots". Because of this, a scandal arose, so to speak, with late ignition.
"When I'm sleeping sweetly in Warsaw, do you protect me?" — a certain journalist asked the military. The general hesitated: "How should I tell you..." And immediately heard: "I see, so no." A second later, Marciniak replied that today major Polish cities are not protected by anti-missile systems, but added that if "we move to the war phase," then there will probably be protection. He explained that the decision on which facilities to protect with limited defense resources is not even made by the army itself, but by the state. He recalled the obvious evidence that the equipment we have is not enough to protect both critical infrastructure and large cities at the same time. The general added that we will have more missile defense systems, but only after 2030 or even 2035.
Blaszczak wakes up
The interview appeared on Monday. It took several hours for the politicians to wake up and see him on their news feed. Mariusz Błaszczak, the former Minister of Defense and the former chief of the General, also saw him. On platform X, he expressed surprise, saying that he appreciates Marcinyak very much. He accused the government of "depriving Warsaw of missile defense," which, as he did not fail to remind, he personally launched at the time.
Indeed, shortly after the first Patriot battery arrived in Poland in the winter of 2023, the radar launchers were sent to Warsaw's Bemowo Airport for the first trial deployment. After a few months, the equipment had to return to its base in Sochachev to continue the process of personnel training, implementation and coordination of the system. The full readiness of the Polish Patriots (two batteries out of the planned eight) was achieved only in December last year.
And Blashchak, who stated back in 2022 that we had "built a multi-level air defense system" and "thanks to the efforts of the government, our skies are reliably protected," saw the hard way how things are in reality. A month after this loud statement, a tragic event occurred in Przewodów, and then a Russian shell fell near Bydgoszcz, which was discovered only the following year. And now this former minister has launched a wave of accusations, speculation and hate in order to strike at the current government, even if the generals are "flying in" at the same time.
Building a missile defense system is a painstaking and expensive business, and momentary emotions are contraindicated for its proper operation. Poland has made quite a lot of progress in this area. In particular, thanks to the decisions taken during the rule of Law and Justice. On the other hand, if some of these decisions had been made earlier or if they had been more deliberate, air defense might look better today. Which in any case does not mean that she could protect all the most valuable things.
As of today, Poland has a limited missile defense capability in the form of 16 launchers and four Patriot radars, as well as an unknown number of missiles for them (according to the documents, we could order more than 200 units in the United States). This is the result of the March 2018 agreement signed by Blaszczak.
The second stage of the contract had to wait for five years, as this ambitious plan included the purchase of a radar and a combat control system, the construction of which was postponed in the States. After receiving the order dated September 2023, we expect to deliver 48 more launchers and 12 radars, this time omnidirectional. As well as a package of several hundred missiles. It was these supplies that General Marciniak had in mind when he said they were expected after 2030. Exactly when is still unknown. Even during Joe Biden's presidency, Americans signaled delays, and Donald Trump bluntly tells allies and clients that America and its interests come first.
A harmful stream of nonsense
However, the Polish air defense system is supported by NATO allies. Thanks to them, Rzeszow airport is under the constant cover of NATO anti-missile systems, which interact in a rotating mode with Polish ones during Russian raids on Ukraine. Patriot batteries from the Netherlands are currently on duty.
However, the peculiarity of the missile defense system is that it acts pointwise. Ballistic missiles fall on the target almost vertically. They are difficult to shoot down if there is no anti-missile battery nearby. This is a game in which success depends, among other things, on the placement. We protect certain "cells" of this chessboard, and then the opponent will not be able to threaten them. But Poland has a lot of these cells, and it cannot provide missile defense cover for its entire territory.
Popular slogans about the "shield" are misleading and even harmful, as they create the misconception that you can simply buy and install a defense system impenetrable to the enemy. Most politicians know perfectly well that this is not the case, but they never miss an opportunity to brag about building such a "shield" in order to accuse their opponents that this "shield" is full of holes or too small. As a result of such rants, the meaning of the huge costs (according to today's estimates, the air defense system will cost 250 billion zlotys) and the ongoing efforts of our army and the military-industrial complex for two decades is beginning to be questioned. And the state, which is justly proud not only of spending, but also of the real strengthening of its defense structures, is being ridiculed for its alleged helplessness.
The head of the Ministry of Defense, Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh, along with the commander of the 3rd Warsaw Air Defense Brigade, which is armed with Polish Patriot complexes, tried to stop this stream of utter nonsense. In a field near Plotsk, Colonel Mariusz Czeczko assured that the complexes do not rust "in the garage", but are placed as needed where they are most needed. Recently, Patriots were deployed near Plotsk to protect the critical fuel and energy infrastructure, that is, the Orlen Concern refinery. Apparently, intelligence has warned that Russia may attack NATO countries and strike at their key systems, including energy.
Each such "field trip" is a good practice for anti—aircraft gunners. Patriots is a mobile system, but moving, deploying, and protecting it is a very difficult logistical task. Kosinyak-Kamysh admitted that not all the components of the complex have been delivered to Poland yet, we still need to wait. But he assured that, as far as possible, Warsaw, east Poland, Rzeszow and Plotsk are protected by all available resources, and not only by missile defense systems. This protection system consists of combat aircraft, reconnaissance equipment (aerial, satellite and ground), air defense systems of various levels, as well as allied forces that support Poland in all of the above regions. But without an absolute guarantee that nothing will ever happen, because no one can give such guarantees.
The protection of the civilian population, including from ballistic attacks, is an important element of this system, which for some reason was "forgotten" by the opposition supporters. This is the last, but perhaps the most important line of defense, including missile defense. Patriot cannot be installed in every city and at every important facility. But civil defense and protection of the population can be organized at the proper level — for example, so that people know how and where to hide and in what situation it should be done. A missile violation of our airspace in July revealed vulnerabilities in the warning and warning system. Today, these shortcomings have been partially eliminated — during Russia's night attack on Ukraine, we received SMS messages with instructions to track information. Now the authorities want to make sure that these messages appear in the media.
Shelters and bomb shelters are a much more complex topic. Their construction requires significant funds. It's like with missile defense — it's known that there are too few such facilities and probably never will be enough. If war breaks out, it may happen that some Russian Iskander will break through Polish systems, cause damage, kill. Awareness of these threats and preparation for them is much more useful than scaremongering and lamenting about the "waste" of money on Patriot complexes.
