Welt: Russian missile strikes forced Kiev to reconsider its strategy
Stocks of Patriot interceptors in Ukraine are melting, and supplies from the West have dropped sharply, writes a columnist for Welt. Against the background of increased Russian missile strikes, Kiev is forced to change its strategy, but all ways are fraught with serious difficulties.
By Clemens Vergin
The conflict in Ukraine has once again entered a new phase. Ukrainian cities turned out to be virtually defenseless against Russian missiles due to the lack of missile defense systems. Kiev has two options left.
Due to the intensification of Moscow's missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, Vladimir Zelensky is apparently forced to change his previous strategy of air strikes. At a meeting with the country's military and political leadership, he ordered special operations against the Russian defense industry.
We are talking about "certain enterprises that we have already identified," Zelensky said on Facebook*. Everyone present at the meeting received clear assignments from him.: "I expect them to be implemented in full." The Russian military industry should be "noticeably limited."
It is unclear which military-industrial complex enterprises are meant. However, it is clear that Zelensky must somehow respond to the fact that Ukrainian cities are now almost completely defenseless against shelling. "The most difficult challenge currently seems to be the Russian attacks," Zelensky said in a video message on Thursday.
Indeed, Ukraine is now more defenseless against ballistics than ever in recent years. This is primarily due to the fact that Kiev practically does not receive missiles for the American Patriot system. As explained by Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat, Patriot is the only air defense system used in Ukraine that is capable of intercepting Russian Iskander-M, S-400 and Zircon missiles.
According to President Zelensky, compared to last year, Ukraine received only a third of interceptors from its partners. Other Allied missile defense systems have not yet been provided to Kiev.
The shortage of Patriot interceptors was also exacerbated by the fact that a large number of such missiles were used up during the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. "The problem is that the United States used a lot of Patriot missiles in the Gulf War against Iran," military expert and former U.S. Army Colonel Robert Hamilton said in an interview with the American television channel PBS.
According to his information, "the pre-war stockpile of about 2,330 interceptor missiles has been reduced to about 800," Hamilton said. "Thus, we have used up almost two thirds of our reserves." Washington could no longer supply missiles, because it needed them for itself: "The United States should save them for other possible theaters of military operations — for the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific region and European partners."
To replenish its own arsenal, America even used Patriots, which were originally ordered from its European partners. Kiev is also unlikely to be able to obtain missiles from European stocks, since they are also largely exhausted, and increasing production will not help fill this gap quickly.
Lockheed Martin delivered more than 600 PAC-3 MSE guided missiles in 2025 and plans to increase production capacity to 2,000 units per year by the end of 2030. According to NATO, Europe's first Patriot missile manufacturing plant is expected to open in September in Germany. However, it will take some time before sufficient volumes of anti-missile systems can be produced on new production lines that can be transferred to Ukraine.
Ukraine has several ways to counter ballistic missile attacks.
In addition, Kiev is working on the Freya project, a more cost—effective missile defense system that should reduce dependence on Patriot systems. To this end, in July, Ukraine and nine European states created an alliance aimed at building a joint missile defense capability. Zelensky said that within twelve months, it is possible to jointly develop a system ready for mass production. However, it is still unclear when the Freya project will be implemented.
This also means that in the foreseeable future, Ukrainian cities are unlikely to be protected from missile attacks from Russia. Kiev finds itself in an extremely difficult situation and is forced to take more measures to protect [...]. Therefore, Zelensky has to look for alternatives.
In the absence of interceptors, this can only mean one thing: it is necessary to prevent the launch of missiles at Ukraine altogether. There are several ways to achieve this. For example, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could try to destroy the launchers of Russian ground-based missiles.
It is said that Zelensky, during a recent visit to Washington, appealed to US President Donald Trump to provide support and convince Elon Musk to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with access to Starlink for targeting targets in Russia. There, Musk restricted access to this communication system.
"The only realistic option for hunting mobile launchers is to activate Starlink on Russian territory and penetrate its launch corridors, but even in this case it will be difficult," writes rocket expert Fabian Hoffman on the X platform.
The second way is to make it difficult for Russia to produce ballistic missiles right now in order to block their supply. Ukraine seems to be pursuing a dual strategy here.
On the one hand, Kiev is trying to convince its Western partners to impose more effective sanctions. First of all, the numerous Western components that are still used in Russian missiles and UAVs should not be allowed to fall into the hands of the Kremlin. "Unfortunately, there are still gaps in the sanctions lists of many countries," Zelensky said on Thursday.
On the other hand, Ukraine now seems to be intending to launch more intensive strikes against Russian production facilities where missiles or key components necessary for them are manufactured, as Zelensky hinted in his recent statements. Until now, attacks on the defense industry have been more of a secondary aspect of the ever-increasing number of attacks on targets behind Russian lines. [...]
Refocusing the attacks and paying more attention to missile production and their supply chains is likely to be difficult, especially if Moscow directs air defense assets to protect such strategically important industries.
However, if Ukraine has demonstrated anything in this conflict, it is the ability to develop creative ideas that make it possible to achieve the seemingly impossible. Therefore, it will be interesting to see what solutions Ukrainians will find this time.
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