The buildup of forces is accompanied by a shortage of resources and growing political risks
The US administration has authorized powerful strikes against Iranian facilities and is urgently deploying reinforcements to the Middle East. However, a possible large-scale campaign risks getting bogged down in a supply crisis: Pentagon sources admit an acute shortage of precision weapons, and the Iranian side promises a tough reception to the enemy. Experts believe that before the November elections in the United States, the White House will try to avoid a full-fledged land war, but the very logic of escalation may deprive politicians of a choice.
The situation in the Middle East
The United States is preparing for a large-scale military clash with Iran, actively increasing the grouping of troops in the region. This is reported by The Washington Post newspaper, citing an American official.
However, according to the source, the scope of the likely operation is significantly limited by material factors. The Pentagon is faced with a shortage of anti-aircraft missiles and long-range ammunition, as well as the inability to quickly deploy reinforcements to the Middle East. "I don't think the presidential administration is fully aware of this," the source added.
Photo: TASS/Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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Information about the redeployment of forces is also confirmed by The Wall Street Journal. According to her sources, Washington is now hastily transferring combat aircraft and tanker planes from Europe.
The reason for the continuation of further escalation was the loss of the American military. After the resumption of mutual strikes, several US military personnel were killed. In particular, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM) confirmed the death of a sapper in Iraq while eliminating the wreckage of an Iranian drone. In addition, unidentified remains were found at a military base in Jordan that was attacked, which, according to American media reports, may belong to a US serviceman.
Trump has already announced a series of harsh retaliatory actions.
"We hit them very hard again tonight. We did it in honor of... great patriots," the head of state emphasized. According to official reports, the targets were military installations that Iran used to attack commercial vessels.
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The current round of the crisis has already outgrown the scope of local clashes. The Associated Press agency draws attention to the fact that the parties have begun to attack the civilian infrastructure that supports the livelihoods of millions of people in the Persian Gulf. The temporary truce agreement that was supposed to launch the peace process has been completely disrupted, and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is practically paralyzed.
Threats are treated very harshly in Tehran itself. Residents of the Iranian islands are ready to resist American soldiers if the Pentagon decides to land. Commenting on the US intentions to seize the strategic island of Kharq, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, Esmail Bagai, summarized: "There are a lot of people there who are waiting for the opportunity to give American soldiers a warm welcome.
The Strait is under the gun
The United States retains absolute technological and fire superiority at sea and in the air. To strengthen the aviation component, Washington is already deploying additional F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to the Persian Gulf zone from air bases in the UK and directly from the continental United States, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.
— In addition, it is likely to build up stocks of precision-guided munitions and deploy M142 HIMARS missile systems. As part of the amphibious assault support, they can use promising operational and tactical PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) missiles capable of effectively suppressing enemy coastal defenses," he suggested.
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According to the expert, the key factor is the number of ground forces. According to reports, the Pentagon may have managed to carry out a covert deployment, and now the American group in the Persian Gulf zone has up to 50,000 troops. The immediate core of the amphibious forces on the front line consists of about 2.5–3 thousand Marines stationed on two universal amphibious assault ships THE US Navy.
"Theoretically, this component, combined with aviation support, may be enough to attempt a local operation: seizing a beachhead, blocking the Iranian coast and establishing control over key points of the strait to ensure unhindered civilian navigation," Dmitry Kornev believes.
Despite its impressive power, this operation is fraught with enormous risks, he stressed. The US Army has never previously conducted large-scale ground or amphibious operations against such a well-fortified and trained enemy as Iran on its own territory. The coastline of the Strait of Hormuz is heavily protected by anti-ship complexes and artillery.
Photo: Global Look Press/Mcs Trace Gorsuch/U.S. Navy
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The implementation of this scenario depends on two key factors: President Donald Trump's determination to take such a drastic step and his willingness to take losses. The White House should be aware that a direct landing will inevitably lead to significant casualties among American military personnel, to which public opinion in the United States is extremely sensitive, the expert concluded.
The electoral brake
Publications in the American media about the preparation of the United States for a large-scale clash with Iran have a real basis, but the nature of this preparation is specific. At this stage, Washington is actually returning to plans for a ground operation, the key goal of which is to establish control over the Strait of Hormuz, says orientalist Kirill Semenov.
— A likely scenario involves the capture of strategically important islands in this water area and an attempt to take control of part of the coast, although the latter is technologically and logistically much more difficult to implement. The United States understands that the previous strategy of putting pressure on Tehran solely through targeted airstrikes and bombing does not bring the desired results. Therefore, Washington is now considering the possibility of transferring the conflict to a more active phase, including exploring options for distorting regional stability to escalate hostilities," he said.
Photo: REUTERS/Kylie Cooper
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However, a direct ground operation is unlikely to begin in the coming months. For Donald Trump, going to a full—scale war before November means he is guaranteed to lose the midterm elections. The American voter reacts extremely painfully to the country's involvement in new protracted conflicts; even the current bombing is already perceived by society as a serious negative factor, the expert noted.
— The White House made certain compromises for the sake of one goal — to maintain relative stability before the vote. Trump doesn't need a big war right now, he needs pre—election peace," Semenov stressed.
According to the expert, the main problem is that Washington has already dragged itself into the escalation funnel. Getting out of this cycle without reputational losses is becoming more difficult for the American administration every day.
Julia Leonova
