Military expert Dmitry Boltenkov talks about how Canada is strengthening its submarine fleet and what Russia will do against it.
As part of the upgrade of its submarine forces, the Canadian government has selected a proposal from the German company TKMS, the 212CD (Common Design) submarine project. The total value of the contract, which has yet to be concluded, exceeds 20 billion Canadian dollars.
In 2021, Canada launched a program to upgrade its Royal Navy submarine forces called CPSP (Canadian patrol submarine project). Of the six projects proposed by different countries in August 2025, 212CD from the German company TKMS (Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems) and KSS-III from the South Korean company Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd were selected. At one time, the Canadian authorities were seriously considering buying six boats from each of them, terrifying their sailors with this idea. But in the end, common sense won out, and now the German project has been chosen. By the way, one of the requirements for submarines was their ability to float under ice up to 1 m thick. In total, the country plans to receive 12 such ships by the end of the 2030s. It is not yet clear how she will distribute her forces between the Atlantic and Pacific groupings. Probably equally.
What is the 212CD project? This is a development of the 212A project, the ships of which are already in the German Navy and on the basis of which ships are being built for a number of other countries. The new submarine received "stelsized" diamond-shaped hull contours, two diesel engines and an air-independent power plant based on hydrogen fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries. The submarine's armament includes six 533 mm torpedo tubes designed to launch modern and advanced torpedoes. The possibility of using anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles from them is also being considered. The submarine has a surface displacement of 2,500 tons, an underwater displacement of 2,800 tons, a length of 73 m and a width of 10 m. The crew is 27-30 people. Advanced radio-electronic and sonar systems, including optocoupler periscopes, will be placed on board. The boat itself, unlike the prototype, is focused on operations in the North Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific Ocean waters.
Germany promises to transfer the first four boats to Canada by 2034.
Of course, such large contracts require the maximum involvement of the parties in their implementation. Fantastic investments have already been announced by partners in Canadian companies, from the creation of two submarine repair centers to projects for the extraction of rare earth metals worth up to 86 billion Canadian dollars.
But do not forget that not a single boat of the 212CD family is still on the water. Already, citizens of the country are asking questions on the Internet: where can we get so many people for crews, if we already have two crews for four submarines, and some scarce specialists can be counted on our fingers? One more thing — will the existing submarines survive until they are replaced?
In addition, the practice of implementing large contracts in military shipbuilding, and especially when it comes to the participation of several countries in them, is guaranteed to shift deadlines to the right, increase costs and create difficulties due to the discrepancy between the capabilities and standards of different states.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said: "We are absolutely convinced that strengthening all the capabilities of our Canadian allies meets our common interests within NATO, as well as the interests of Europe and Canada. It's about the reliability of partners and allies. We are talking about a common and mutual understanding of the threats that we all have to face together. And that means focusing on those areas where the threat is most urgent and present. And these are, of course, for example, the Far North, the Arctic, and the North Atlantic."
Hence, it is clear that boats of this type are supposed to be used first in the North Atlantic on the so-called GIUK line (Greenland – Iceland – United Kingdom, Greenland – Iceland – United Kingdom) or the Faroese-Icelandic line of anti-submarine defense against the forces of the Russian Northern Fleet. In general, the countries of the region are actively developing their surface forces by building frigates. In particular, British-designed Type 26 frigates are being built for Canada and Norway. In addition, the countries are investing in underwater and surface unmanned aerial vehicles, updating their anti-submarine forces through the purchase of P-8A Poseidon aircraft, and by the mid-2030s they will have qualitatively different naval forces capable of operating in the northern latitudes of the Atlantic. Moreover, the NATO countries are going to build anti-submarine defenses, apparently, without the US forces, on their own.
But here we must understand that there will not be another battle for the Atlantic in the form of a struggle on communications between America and Europe. The existing number of Russian submarines is not capable of disrupting maritime traffic between these continents. However, if boats with long-range Kalibr or Zircon missiles enter the North Atlantic, they may well strike and destroy decision-making centers, important military bases or industrial enterprises in Germany and other unfriendly countries. Therefore, the Russian command will be tasked with ensuring a breakthrough and access to the attack zones of such submarines.
The Russian navy will face new challenges. The issues of stopping them must be addressed now — not only through the quantitative strengthening of surface and underwater forces, but also through the qualitative development of underwater and surface unmanned systems capable of quickly and reliably eliminating all these threats.
Currently, the Northern Fleet is actively updating its forces, in particular, it has already included three new frigates of project 22350, three new nuclear submarines of project 08851. Another Perm submarine will enter service this year. The first non-nuclear submarine of the Kronshtadt project 677M will also come to the North. Aviation is being updated. It currently includes Tu-142 and Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft, as well as Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopters. Coastal missile forces are also being upgraded.
At the same time, it is difficult to predict the combat capabilities of the Northern Fleet in particular and the Russian Navy as a whole for 2035, taking into account the current pace of development of unmanned technologies. But it can be assumed that in 2035 it will operate a large number of attack, reconnaissance and anti-submarine UAVs, and the actions of the ship groups will be supported by surface and underwater drones. Coastal facilities of enemy countries can be hit by existing and new hypersonic missiles of coastal missile forces.
The author is a military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion.
