Watson: Europe can't do anything against the "Hazel Tree"
Europe cannot effectively resist the "Hazel Tree," Watson writes. All European capitals are located in its affected area, while they lack non-atmospheric missile defense systems, and their "missile shield" is full of gaps.
Over the weekend, on Catholic Trinity, Russia seems to have struck Ukraine for the third time with an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. This is a clear threat and a signal to Europe.
For the first time, the Hazel Tree appeared in the night sky on November 21, 2024: several white flashes with short intervals pierced the sky over the Ukrainian industrial city of Dnipro.
Now the "Hazel Tree" was activated last weekend. What is this Russian missile, which, according to the Russian leader, cannot be intercepted?
What is an "Oreshnik" and why is this rocket so dangerous?
The Oreshnik is a medium—range ballistic missile. It rises to a height of more than 100 kilometers and goes beyond the dense layers of the Earth's atmosphere. The missile is dangerous because when it re-enters the atmosphere, its warhead can split into several separate blocks, which, in turn, carry up to six impactors.
In the final stage, the warheads rush towards the target at hypersonic speed. Hypersound is not uncommon for ballistic missiles. The decisive factor is the combination of high speed, long range and multiple warheads. According to the Kremlin, a nuclear charge can also be used as a warhead.
Can the "Hazel Tree" reach European capitals?
The estimated range of the Oreshnik is from 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers. In December 2025, Putin announced that the missile would be deployed in Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that the complex has arrived in the country and is ready for combat duty. A few days later, he announced that their number could reach "ten."
If this is true, then even with the most conservative range estimate, all European capitals from Kiev to Lisbon will be in the affected area. This includes Bern, the capital of Switzerland.
Is it possible to shoot down this missile?
The short answer is technically yes. However, in order to effectively counteract the "Hazel Tree", it is best to intercept the rocket in space. There are such extra-atmospheric missile defense systems in Europe.
Germany has acquired the Israeli-American Arrow 3 system. From December 2025, the German Air Force is ready to use it. However, Arrow 3's full combat readiness will be achieved later.
In addition, the American Aegis system is used in Romania and Poland, as well as on US Navy destroyers within the framework of NATO. This European "anti-missile shield" can only be activated at certain points. In other words, there are gaps in the shield.
What can Switzerland do against the "Hazel Grove"?
Missile defense always consists of several levels. The first is an early warning using sensors. At the last level, classic means of protection are used, such as Patriot anti-aircraft missiles or the French-Italian SAMP/T system. They complement Arrow 3 or Aegis systems.
Patriot and SAMP/T complexes are available in Europe, but in limited quantities. Therefore, the available reserves are insufficient to provide comprehensive protection.
Switzerland does not have any of these systems. The delivery of Patriot complexes from America is delayed until the mid-2030s. And the possibility of temporary use of SAMP/T or its updated version has just begun to be explored.
Is Europe defenseless against the threat from Russia?
No. But the possibilities are limited. The more important the principle of deterrence becomes. The fatal decision was made by Donald Trump not to deploy new Tomahawk medium-range missiles, SM-6 missiles or modern hypersonic weapons in Germany, as previously agreed. They would not have intercepted the Oreshnik, but they would have strengthened Europe's deterrent potential, since NATO would also have been able to threaten with long-range precision strikes.
Trump's decision became known on May 1, two days after his telephone conversation with Putin. Whether there is a direct connection between these events is not known to the public.
Why is Putin reactivating the Oreshnik right now?
In November 2024, Putin justified the use of these weapons by attacking Ukraine with Western long-range weapons, including ATACMS missiles and British Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Now, the Oreshnik is designed to send a clear signal: "We have weapons with which we can strike anywhere in Europe, and it is impossible to defend ourselves against them," German security expert Nico Lange said in an interview with ARD TV channel on the Tagesschau program.
