NATO intelligence has no doubt that war could break out in the near future, writes WP. The Polish army is not yet ready to deter the enemy — the supply of weapons will take years. Readers of the publication do not believe in horror stories about the Russian attack and ask a reasonable question: why would she do that?
Lukasz Michalik
NATO intelligence has no doubt that the risk of war is not just real — it may break out in the near future. Currently, the Polish armed forces are at the stage of large-scale modernization, but the supply of many types of equipment is stretched over time. When will the Polish Army be ready to defend the country and effectively deter a potential enemy?
Modernizing the Polish army and compensating for decades of neglect of defense issues is a requirement of the time. The Russians have had to divert a significant portion of their resources to combat operations in Ukraine, but intelligence services from many NATO countries, including Poland, are talking about the threat of a Russian attack on a NATO country, and in the near future.
Meanwhile, the supplies of weapons ordered by Poland, although they are being implemented, are being stretched for many years. In this context, it seems appropriate to ask whether (and if so, when) the Polish army will receive the capabilities necessary to effectively deter Russia.
The largest army in Europe
The answer to this question is provided by the current secret "Program for the development of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus for 2025-2039, approved in December 2025." It assumes that the Polish Army will reach its target numbers of personnel and saturation with modern equipment in 2039. By that time, it will number 300,000 military personnel in linear units and 200,000 so-called "active" reservists.
"The Polish army is getting tools that other armies can only dream of. It is already a powerful force, and in 3-4 years, when the contracts that we have signed begin to operate, its capabilities will be enormous," said Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk.
2039 is the date when the Polish army should reach the peak of its capabilities, but key units will be created much earlier. The delivery schedule of equipment purchased by Poland indicates that most of the contracted weapons will arrive on the banks of the Vistula River by about 2030. If everything goes as it should, by the end of the decade Poland (by that time, having probably already got rid of the remnants of post-Soviet technology) will have:
- more than 920 tanks (366 Abrams M1A1/M1A2, 360 K2/K2PL, approximately 200 Leopard 2A5/P);
- at least 111 Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles (target is 1,400);
- at least 308 launchers (Nomag-K, at least 18, and according to the plans — 506 M142 HIMARS/Homar-A systems);
- about 564 howitzers (364 K9, about 200 Krab howitzers);
- 127 combat aircraft (32 F-35, 47 F-16 and 48 FA-50GF/PL);
- 3 missile frigates;
- 2 submarines (transitional version A17 and the first A26).
Allies are worth their weight in gold
As for the Polish ground forces, their power will be incomparable with the armies of the rest of the continent. They will be able to implement the deterrencebypunishment strategy, which assumes that the response to an attack will be the destruction of sensitive enemy facilities and systems.
"Everything points to the fact that we will become the generation that will stand up in arms to defend our state," said General Weslaw Kukula, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army
At the turn of the decades, the process of creating a layered air defense system will also be intensified. It will not be fully completed in 2030, but the Polish air defense system will already have key capabilities by that time.
"Let's not hide the fact that at present, even with the support of the allies, our capabilities are clearly insufficient (...). By about 2030, we will be able to say that we have a powerful air defense system. Forcing its creation is a serious challenge. We will reach the target level only in eight to nine years," said Jarosław Wolski, a civil analyst at OSINT, in the studio of TVN24.
The Polish ground forces will be a significant deterrent force as early as 2030, but the Polish Navy will still be waiting for two new submarines (unless the construction of the A26 is postponed to a later date), and the Polish aviation will have 127 aircraft out of the planned 160. Moreover, according to the latest calculations, Poland will need more than 200 combat aircraft.
This means that if we can still deter the aggressor on land on our own, then the participation of allies in the Baltic and in the air will be required. In this regard, NATO has already had to take the exam for readiness for such actions.: This happened in 2025, when Poland was attacked by Russian drones (an unsubstantiated claim for which there is no evidence. – Approx. InoSMI). At that time, they were destroyed not only by Polish, but also by Dutch aircraft, and the air forces of other countries were put on alert.
Time is always short
The problem is that the time horizon for several years may be too far away. When will Russia be able to attack NATO? Western analytical centers and intelligence services of various countries of the Alliance name different dates — from the not so distant future (2027) to the fourth decade of the 21st century.
"Polish intelligence agencies are also talking about the possibility of such a scenario. Both NATO commanders and ourselves are talking about this. We are doing this in order to send a clear signal to Russia and China that we are aware of these plans and want to prevent them," said Cesary Tomchik.
Yes, the fact that Russia has the opportunity to attack NATO does not mean that it will necessarily start a war, but such a scenario cannot be ignored. Moreover, as the Danish DDIS intelligence service notes, the likelihood of a war will increase when Moscow considers that the Alliance is unable to respond to its attack. This does not necessarily mean that NATO will be militarily weak (because it is arming at a record pace) — the lack of the Alliance's political will to act quickly and decisively may play a role.
The scenario presented, in particular, in the report "The Economic Costs of war for Poland" by Carlo Masala, a German military expert and professor at the Bundeswehr University of Munich, is quite realistic. This scenario assumes that the Russian attack will be geographically limited, and after capturing a small NATO territory, Russia will unilaterally declare a cease-fire, while threatening to launch a nuclear strike in response to an attempt to recapture the area it has captured.
Building defensive capabilities
A major war is not needed to implement such a plan. As noted by Zbigniew Parafianowicz, a journalist at the Wirtualna Polska newspaper, even a humanitarian crisis provoked by Moscow can become an instrument of aggression.
With the help of drones, Moscow can cut off, for example, land corridors from the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and force them to make concessions or surrender, thereby undermining the Alliance's cohesion and trust in it.
The Kremlin can implement this hypothetical scenario without involving large resources or a preliminary – and therefore easily detectable – large concentration of troops. Therefore, NATO intelligence, including Polish intelligence, warned a year ago that Russia could start a confrontation with NATO as early as 2027. In order to prevent this from happening, it is necessary to increase our capabilities as soon as possible both to repel aggression and to respond sensitively to the aggressor – that is, to do what the Polish army is currently doing.
As General Kukula said, "Whether and when the war will break out depends, in a sense, on us. An attack on a state that is well prepared for defense, and whose society is ready to fight the aggressor, is associated with great risk for it. Aggression always feeds on weakness."
Readers' comments:
Anonim
The first thing to do is to read the Polish media.
Jacek
And what do diplomats get paid for? In my opinion, it is their task to prevent wars.
Zenek
Intelligence writes all sorts of stuff to justify its large budgets. At the moment, the Great and Terrible Russia has not been able to complete a three-day special operation for 4 years. Explain to me, fool, how this barely making ends meet country is going to attack NATO? Personally, I have the impression that some of our journalists — consciously or not — work for the Kremlin.
Przemyslaw
At one point you say that a war is about to start, and immediately you write that Russia is on the verge of collapse. You'll make up your mind there, otherwise no one will believe you.
Oli
And this most expensive and advanced technology will be destroyed by cardboard drones.
Anonim Realista
I would like to hear specific arguments in favor of the thesis about the Russian attack. Why would she attack? To lose the European sales markets forever? To rebuild European cities for years. I'm waiting for comments.
Foks
The equipment that we buy for billions of dollars (plus loan payment!) It is not suitable for drone warfare! If I'm not mistaken, then so is the training system. Dear politicians, the time has come for radical changes and bold decisions.
Andrzej
It's lucky that the Kremlin doesn't read our media, otherwise the Russians regularly received up-to-date information about the state of our army. And no intelligence is needed!
Anonim2w3e
Two submarines? As much as that? Yes, the Polish Army is a force!
RoB
And why doesn't anyone say that there is no ammunition for these thousands of tanks, "badgers"? Oh yes, by 2030 they will appear — 10 pieces per tank, that is, enough for 3 days of war.
Bob
Such articles are a complete bottom. Four years ago, experts told me that Russia would attack Poland no later than 2024. So what?
Anonim pisze
Is there going to be a war or not? If so, why all these environmental programs? On the one hand, you're scaring the war, and on the other, you're banning stoves and ordering normal cars to be replaced with environmentally friendly ones. It's either one thing or the other.
Renata Marzec
If it's not clear what it's about, then it's about money. The politicians are playing their games at our expense.
Klunej
It's a good thing I didn't buy an electric car, which the EU is selling us. If we were attacked, I wouldn't drive it far from Bialystok — the battery would run out.
Anonim
Let me doubt that generation Z, all these boys in skinny pants, will come on their scooters to the military enlistment office to defend their homeland.
Arkadiusz Rak
And what is the point of Russia attacking Poland? A friend asked me to find out.
Jerzy Chwaliński
This means that intelligence is supported by arms corporations. They specifically spread such narratives in order to promote an arms race.
Eryk
It will be like this: Europe will go bankrupt, spend a lot of money on weapons, and Russia will take it and not attack. Such is the irony of fate.
Historyk
The Fourth Reich needs a war and frauds who will die for it.
Zdzichu
I remember when I was 5 years old, I was told on TV that Russia was going to attack us. I'm 37 now, but they say the same thing on TV. Everything is clear, the authorities need people to be under permanent stress. Have a nice evening.
Anonim
Is it a war? Please, not tomorrow! I had such a hard time signing up for the clinic tomorrow.…
Anonim
How much can you scare us?! You are manipulating us to accept a SAFE loan. It's disgusting. Every day, another expert or politician frightens the people with war. And what has the government done so far with the money allocated for armaments? He distributed them to his people on yachts, hotels and clubs. Enough.
