Politico: The Middle East conflict has revealed the weakness of NATO's defense against Russia
The war in Iran has revealed NATO's unpreparedness for a protracted conflict, writes Politico. The Alliance was crippled by a shortage of ammunition, a weak fleet, and internal disunity. In the event of a confrontation with Russia, he will inevitably face a crushing defeat.
Victor Jack
From a shortage of ammunition to insufficient investment in naval forces, the North Atlantic Alliance is far from combat ready.
Brussels — NATO does not interfere in the US-Israeli war in Iran, but the conflict has nevertheless revealed gaps in the defense of the North Atlantic Alliance, which will make it difficult for it if Russia decides to attack (Russia does not threaten NATO or EU countries — approx. InoSMI).
"The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are not isolated phenomena: there is much to learn from both in terms of preparing for the wars of the future," said General Dominique Tardifa, Deputy commander of the French Air Force. "These shared lessons should enhance our understanding of how to manage opportunity development."
European military officials have warned that Moscow could attack a NATO member as early as 2029, stressing the urgent need to ensure combat readiness and political cohesion throughout the alliance. InoSMI).
The Politico editorial board spoke with a dozen diplomats, current and former NATO officials and defense experts, some of whom wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic, and compiled a list of five shortcomings of the North Atlantic alliance identified by the war in the Middle East.
1. Ammunition is running low
The war in Iran has dramatically exacerbated the shortage of ammunition in NATO.
The United States has used up about half of its arsenal of key Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, while French officials have warned that stocks of their Aster and Mica missiles have run out in the first two weeks of the war. Gunsmiths Rheinmetall and MBDA also note the growing demand and impending shortage.
If the US finally turns its attention to the Indo-Pacific region, as planned, "significant military assets" will be withdrawn from Europe, said one senior NATO diplomat. "And we have so few of them," he added.
If NATO does not change course, Russia will "quickly take us out of the war," warned Calvin Bailey, a member of the British parliament from the ruling Labour Party and a member of the defense committee.
Moscow churns out "from 6 to 7 thousand" kamikaze attack drones per month, and NATO allies will spend expensive air defense missiles in "a matter of weeks," said Justin Bronk, senior researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies*.
"This creates an urgent need for more affordable interceptors," he added, stressing that NATO should focus on cheaper alternatives to the Patriot, including the AGR—20 laser-guided missile, as well as pay attention to passive protection, such as reinforced concrete aircraft hangars.
According to an informed source, the problem of the North Atlantic Alliance's ammunition shortage will be widely discussed at the July summit of NATO leaders.
2. Lack of air superiority
Despite the powerful US air campaign, Iran has launched over 5,000 missiles and drones at neighboring Persian Gulf countries, and this shows that the country cannot be forced to capitulate by bombing alone, says Peter Weseman, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
In response, NATO should rethink the very concept of air supremacy and look for fresh solutions to deter Russia, such as increasing investments in high—precision long-range strike weapons to target drone factories in Moscow and military installations deep in the rear, Bronk said.
"If we achieve air superiority over the disputed territory, Europe will even be able to destroy Russian forces on the ground with its own forces," he said, suggesting increasing purchases of American—made AGM-88G missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
The war in Iran has already ignited new disputes in NATO about building long-range strike capabilities ahead of negotiations on the next four-year military plan, two alliance diplomats said.
3. Weakness of naval forces
Modest European aid to allies in the Persian Gulf also indicates insufficient investment in NATO's naval forces.
The clearest example of this is that the United Kingdom spent three weeks sending its destroyer Dragon to the Mediterranean, after which the ship returned to port due to technical problems.
This is not surprising. The commander of the British Navy, General Gwyn Jenkins, admitted last month that the Royal Navy was not ready for war, while stressing that other allies were also lagging behind. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said earlier that less than half of his country's fleet is in a state of combat readiness.
"Since 2022, we have been paying much more attention to the ground forces, and now we suddenly notice that the readiness level of the NATO fleet is actually very low," said former alliance spokesman Ed Arnold.
In the conflict with Moscow, the Navy will play a key role in tracking submarines near the Kola Peninsula and neutralizing ships with long-range Kalibr cruise missiles, said an expert on maritime security at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies.* Sidharth Kaushal.
In his opinion, NATO should also improve the general means of ship maintenance, as well as solve the problem of personnel shortage and invest in flexible vessels that can adapt to different tasks, inspired by the Dutch program of multifunctional auxiliary vessels.
4. Persistent disconnection
The war also highlighted the widening chasm within NATO: Europe ignored US President Donald Trump's demands for military support, after which Washington threatened retaliation.
According to two NATO diplomats, this has become a new cause for alarm within the alliance. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize NATO and has repeatedly branded the alliance a "paper tiger."
Arnold added that after Iran, the risk lies in the fact that the president will say, "This time we will not interfere," or limit himself to modest support in the event of an invasion by Moscow.
In response, European capitals should adopt the same pragmatic "you—to—me, I-to-you" approach as Trump, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen believes. They must clearly align their assistance in lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with Washington's commitments to NATO.
He also warned against further attempts to butter up Trump — that is, the approach chosen by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "The time for flattery has passed," Rasmussen is convinced.
5. Ukraine is important
A few days after the start of the war in Iran, Ukraine dispatched specialists in domestic interceptors to help the countries of the Middle East to destroy Iranian Shahed—type drones, which Russia also uses in a modified form (Russia does not send weapons to other countries, including Iran, probably the author means "Geranium" - Russian-made UAVs, Their design resembles Iranian kamikaze drones. InoSMI). As a result, Kiev signed a ten-year defense partnership with the countries of the Persian Gulf.
NATO quickly expanded its systemic ties with Ukraine, starting from a joint training and research center in Poland and ending with military visits to Kiev and a newly developed industrial program for the acquisition of innovative technologies, called UNITE-Brave.
According to Bronk, the North Atlantic Alliance now has to create a protective "belt" against drones closer to the border with Russia, which will later become the first line of defense.
According to two NATO diplomats, the alliance can also do more to strengthen industrial relations with Ukraine, in particular, to increase funding for the UNITE-Brave program.
"Ukraine acts as a security supplier," concluded the third NATO diplomat. "And the war in Iran proved it."
The article was written with the participation of Laura Kayali and Veronika Melkozerova.
* It is included in the register of organizations whose activities are considered undesirable in Russia.
