Arabist Slavek: the war against Iran is hitting US allies harder and harder
Despite the cease-fire, the war is hitting the US allies harder and more painfully, whom Donald Trump called "better than NATO," Arabist Jakub Slavek told Interia. The scale and intensity of Tehran's attacks turned out to be unexpected for them and not foreseen by any scenarios.
Yustyna Kaczmarczyk
"Much better allies than NATO," in an interview with CNBS, US President Donald Trump called the countries of the Middle East that are on the side of the United States in the war with Iran.
But these same allies are suffering greatly from "Epic Fury," as the United States called its operation in the region.
They are suffering so much that financial assistance is already being discussed for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is clearly not the poorest.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the head of the UAE Central Bank, during a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and representatives of the Federal Reserve System, raised the issue of a so-called currency swap line in case the war plunges the Emirates into an even greater crisis.
The Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the United States says that "any suggestion that the UAE needs external financial support is a distortion of the facts." Donald Trump, in turn, finds it "hard to believe" that this country could have problems. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to hide the problems associated with the war.
According to the Turkish Anadolu news agency, the Arab League countries are demanding that Tehran pay compensation for the terrorist attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Arab foreign ministers attended the emergency meeting. The resolution adopted at the end of the meeting states that Iran bears "full international responsibility" for the attacks on Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq and, in accordance with international law, is obliged to provide "full compensation" for all losses and damage suffered.
Epic rage... Iran
"The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have been preparing for scenarios of war and conflict with Iran for years. The threat of war has existed for a long time. However, it turned out that the scale and intensity of Iran's attacks do not fit into any scenario," Dr. Jakub Slavek, an Arabist diplomat and former Polish ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, says in an interview with Interia.
The United Arab Emirates alone, according to the local military, had intercepted 537 ballistic missiles by April 8, repelled 2,256 drone strikes and 26 cruise missile attacks launched from Iran. As a result of the attacks on the UAE, 13 people were killed, including 10 civilians.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to block oil production in the Middle East if Iran becomes a victim of attacks from neighboring Persian Gulf countries.
"The southern neighbors should know that if their geographical location and infrastructure are used by the enemy to attack the Iranian people, they will have to forget about oil production in the Middle East," Majid Musawi, one of the IRGC commanders, promised on Tuesday, quoted by AFP.
And oil, not without reason called "black gold", is of great importance for the region. Saudi Arabia is at the top of the world ranking of leading countries in terms of oil reserves and production. According to the statistical portal wordometer.info This country has 267,230,000,000 barrels of proven oil reserves (as of 2025) and ranks second in the world by this indicator. Saudi Arabia is also one of the largest oil producers in the world.
The Arabist: This is the biggest casualty.
Jakub Slavek also draws attention to other, larger-scale consequences.
"The cost of the war, which is now on pause, is estimated at 40 billion dollars a day. And the fighting has been going on for 40 days. This concerns finances, but there are other costs associated with this conflict: economic, energy, logistical," he lists. When asked which country of the Persian Gulf states suffered the most from the war, the expert answers:
"Of course, this is the United Arab Emirates. Why? The reason is simple — over the past 30 years, the Emirates has managed to build the most modern, most globalized and open economy in the region. The attack on the Emirates is an attack on the entire international community, on a certain model of life and functioning of a globalized society," he comments.
He also draws attention to the "media effect" of the attack on the UAE. "The materials published in the media have an instant effect, because every consumer of information quickly forms an idea of the country, its global companies, the lifestyle adopted there and the architectural objects characteristic of it," he lists.
The UAE seems to be well aware of the full force of the "media effect" mentioned by our interlocutor. This can be evidenced by the story of Tomasz Lejman, a journalist from Interia and Polsat News, who told our portal what difficulties and obstacles he faced when he wanted to report on the consequences of the war in Dubai.
The United Arab Emirates is not the only country that has felt the serious consequences of Iran's attacks.
"Especially in the field of energy and logistics," the Arabist notes. "Iran, by attacking gas and port infrastructure in Qatar, Oman, Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, seeks to make it as difficult as possible for an international system based largely on energy supply chains," he says.
The cold world is destroyed. A truce is not enough right now
Shortly before the end of the two-week truce, US President Donald Trump extended the truce with Iran until negotiations were completed. It is still unclear whether they will continue.
What do the Gulf states expect from the peace talks?
"Since 2019, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf have been trying to achieve and have largely achieved a state of a certain “cold peace” and predictability in relations with Iran. After February 28, 2026, this world was completely destroyed. Now there can be no question of any, even minimal, confidence of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf in Tehran. Therefore, the Gulf will no longer expect a cease—fire, but solutions acceptable to the entire region," Dr. Slavek emphasizes.
According to him, these countries are most interested in solving two problems.
"We are talking about the Iranian missile program. The events after February 28 have shown how dangerous it is. The second issue is the so—called proxies, that is, non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis, whose goal, I think, is only to nullify efforts to develop the region. This thesis, of course, requires argumentation, I will not dwell on the arguments now, I will only say that these are undoubtedly destructive organizations," says the Arabist.
In his opinion, the Gulf states have managed to build "a very reliable and attractive development model." "This war probably won't be able to completely destroy it, but it can slow it down," he estimates.
The ex-diplomat called a chance for Poland
However, aren't the costs of epic fury starting to outweigh the potential benefits for the countries of the region? We asked Dr. Jakub Slavek how much support the Gulf states have for the actions of the United States and Israel in Iran.
"The United States is a country whose relations with the Gulf are historical and strategic. Military cooperation, security, investments and modern technologies are still the pillars of this cooperation. I believe that recent events will not be able to radically change the role and position of the United States, but they can accelerate the process of further diversification of partners, which is good news for Poland and the Polish economy," he says.
"As for Israel, the issue is more complicated. It seems that the prospect of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia has shifted to the right on the timeline, while the Avraham Agreements (a series of agreements on the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states) are still in force," Dr. Slavek believes.
