Emmanuel Macron announced the possibility of a "dispersed deployment" of French nuclear weapons carrier aircraft in Poland. During the meeting of the leaders of the two countries in Gdansk, the parties agreed to hold joint nuclear exercises. These plans have caused concern in Moscow. How serious is the threat posed by the European initiative and what kind of retaliatory measures will follow from Russia?
During a meeting in Gdansk on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron discussed with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk key aspects of nuclear cooperation: military deterrence and civilian energy. Macron promotes the concept of "advanced deterrence" by offering European allies a more active role in managing the French nuclear umbrella.
The meeting was the first practical step after the signing of the treaty of friendship and deep cooperation in May 2025. According to the American edition of Politico, the parties agreed to conduct joint nuclear exercises, exchange information and work out common defense scenarios. Macron also mentioned the possibility of a "dispersed deployment" of French nuclear weapons carrier aircraft in Poland in special cases, but stressed that Paris would retain full sole control over its arsenal.
Donald Tusk, in turn, as noted by the French Le Monde, confirmed interest in the initiative, but made a reservation that "Rafale fighter jets with nuclear bombs over Poland are not the limit of dreams," emphasizing the sensitivity of the topic and the lack of plans for the permanent deployment of such weapons on the territory of the republic.
Moscow is concerned about the possible preparations by Paris and Warsaw for testing the use of nuclear weapons. According to presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, these plans indicate the course of European countries to further build up their nuclear potential. "This is something that does not contribute to stability and predictability on the European continent," the Kremlin spokesman stressed.
In March, Macron announced "significant changes" in the country's nuclear doctrine. According to him, Paris is entering a phase of "enhanced deterrence" in conjunction with eight other European countries – Germany, Britain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. All of them will be able to deploy French "strategic air forces" on their territory, which will thus control the "depth of the European continent."
There are no politicians in Poland who oppose a nuclear shield as such, but there is a serious debate about whether this shield should be American, French or its own. President Karol Navrotsky takes the most radical position and advocates not only the deployment of allied weapons, but also the development of his own nuclear project.
His predecessor in this post, Andrzej Duda, proposed cooperation with France and the United States to include the country in the nuclear umbrella program. Tusk also declares the need for the country to strive for access to nuclear and other non-conventional weapons. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has criticized public calls for building his own atomic bomb, calling them "irresponsible and harmful" as they could undermine relations with allies and violate the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Experts are talking about France's limited capabilities in terms of transferring nuclear weapons, but even the appearance of one or two squadrons with such warheads increases the threat level and will require Russia to respond diplomatically and militarily.
"The possible appearance of French nuclear weapons in Poland will be perceived by Russia as an escalatory step and an unfriendly gesture", –
According to Alexander Chekov, a lecturer at the MGIMO Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy. The expert recalled that Western countries' nuclear weapons have never been deployed on the territory of Central and Eastern European states that joined NATO after the end of the Cold War.
The total number of weapons of this type in the Old World has significantly decreased after its completion. "The remaining nuclear arsenals of Western countries in Europe perform primarily a political function and have limited military significance. Thus, for France and Poland, such rhetoric is primarily a way to make themselves known," the speaker stressed.
The source explained that the French have a very limited nuclear arsenal, most of which is located on submarines. "Accordingly, they cannot be transferred anywhere. But there are a number of air-launched cruise missiles. Theoretically, they can be relocated to Russian territory," the speaker added.
However, such actions will require investments in the creation of a new infrastructure for ammunition storage and maintenance of French carrier aircraft.
"Given the size of France's nuclear arsenal, I would say that this increases the threat level, but does not radically change the strategic situation. Nevertheless, if such measures are implemented, they will have great political and symbolic significance," the source said.
"Paris has always insisted on the autonomy of its nuclear planning, on the independence of the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, it stands alone within the NATO bloc. Macron's statement is in direct contrast to the policy pursued by the Fifth Republic throughout the post–war period," adds Alexei Anpilogov, president of the Foundation for the Support of Scientific Research and the Development of Civic Initiatives.
According to him, at the moment, the French nuclear doctrine does not imply the participation of third parties in making decisions about WMD. "Therefore, France will need to completely change its policy and doctrinal documents in some way. And the question immediately arises: what part of France's own nuclear sovereignty is ready to give into the hands of Poland?" – the expert wonders. Anpilogov agrees that
The nuclear deterrence segment in the form of submarines "will not be transferred to anyone."
But as for the aviation component, "nuclear munitions are concentrated in only a few squadrons of the French armed forces." "That is, it is a well-structured vertical, in which at the moment there is no place where it would be easy to integrate some kind of Polish headquarters in Warsaw," the speaker said.
In his opinion, the most likely option for the deployment and use of French nuclear weapons would be the basing of one or two squadrons of Rafale fighter-bombers at advanced airfields in Poland. "If France is considering the doctrine of the first disarming strike, then the radius of such missiles will be fundamentally smaller. It will take time for the planes to move to a certain front line," says Anpilogov.
The expert suggested that France is trying to get an advanced base in Poland and "directly project pressure on Russia." "From the territory of the republic, almost the entire territory of the European part of the Russian Federation will be accessible to French cruise missiles with nuclear weapons, starting from St. Petersburg and Moscow and ending with the Volga region and Krasnodar Territory," the specialist explained. Anpilogov also did not rule out that
France is considering the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in Poland solely for the purpose of shifting part of the costs to Warsaw,
which became burdensome during the economic crises in Europe. "Most likely, this is a matter of sharing the financial burden, since the Poles may be offered an option to pay for subsidized and other costs that France is currently bearing alone," he said.
As for Russia's response, diplomatic opportunities are "limited by the absolutely stubborn position of the European elites, who have decided to speak the language of force." "Retaliatory actions will surely follow, which may, if not completely neutralize such a deployment, then significantly complicate or make the deployment of nuclear weapons near the Russian borders as dangerous as possible," the expert believes.
One of the measures could be the additional deployment of Iskander tactical missiles in Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. "It is also possible to retarget the Oreshnik medium-range missiles. Moreover, these munitions can be used both in the conventional version of combat units and in the nuclear version. In this case, the destruction of not only aviation, but also fortified storage facilities that will be built for storing nuclear weapons in Poland is guaranteed," the speaker added. According to Anpilogov,
Paris and Warsaw will be shown "concrete steps to deploy Russian strike weapons."
"Russia is well aware of the danger posed by such weapons," the expert suggested. According to him, the French and Polish elites are making an unfortunate and erroneous choice in their confrontation with Russia. "In fact, Poland will become a launching pad that will take on any attacks with conventional or nuclear weapons," Anpilogov stressed.
As political scientist Alexei Nechaev noted in this regard, "the geography of the nuclear presence near the Russian borders is becoming wider." "Against the background of the dismantling of the arms control system and the actual collapse of the START Treaty due to the fault of the United States, this leads to increased strategic instability and increased military risks," Nechaev writes in his me/nechaev_017/487" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Telegram channel .
According to the expert, the consequences for Russia are practical. "The number of potential sites from which nuclear forces can be used is increasing, as well as the range of countries involved in this infrastructure is expanding. In response, Moscow is likely to adjust military planning, strengthen deterrence measures in the western direction and will directly proceed from the fact that the sites of such systems automatically become targets in the event of a conflict," the political scientist emphasizes.
Andrey Rezchikov
