So far, Tehran has limited itself to strikes, the consequences of which leave room for diplomatic maneuver and negotiations.
The seizure of the Iranian vessel by the Americans did not lead to a large-scale military escalation: Tehran limited itself to drone strikes on US warships. Meanwhile, according to experts, the republic retains the potential for a massive combined strike against U.S. forces in the region, using both missiles and unmanned systems of various classes. However, so far Iran has avoided such attacks, relying on saving resources and long-term pressure. Izvestia investigated how military experts assess Tehran's combat potential and why a large-scale clash between the parties using all types of weapons remains a hypothetical scenario.
Technological arsenal
Theoretically, Iran is capable of threatening US ships with combined strikes: massive drone launches to distract attention, synchronized volleys of anti-ship missiles (anti-ship missiles) and the use of unmanned kamikaze boats, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.
— Cruise anti—ship missiles form the basis of the strike potential, - said military expert Dmitry Kornev. — The basic model here is the Nur projectile with a range of up to 120 km, and the more advanced version is the Kader, which hits targets at a distance of up to 300 km. These systems, based on Chinese developments and deeply modernized Iranian military-industrial complex, form the main echelon of delivery of weapons of destruction.
The Fateh-110 family of ballistic missiles, which have received specialized modifications to combat naval targets, can play a key role in breaking through the defense. For example, the Hormuz-1 and Hormuz-2 models are equipped with radar homing heads, which allows them to target radiation sources. The Khalidj-e Fars missile with a range of up to 300 km uses an optoelectronic infrared guidance system that ensures the destruction of moving vessels.
Photo: Global Look Press/Iranian Presidency
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The use of kamikaze drones of the Shahed-136 type as the main means of destruction looks doubtful. These UAVs carry a relatively small warhead and have low accuracy. In the conditions of modern naval air defense, where high fire density and the ability to overcome multi-layered protection are required, the use of drones alone is ineffective.
"If we consider the scenario of a real confrontation, the success of the attack depends not on the number of simple UAVs, but on the massive use of a range of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of implementing different principles of guidance," Dmitry Kornev summed up.
Barriers to efficiency
In practice, there are a number of limitations for delivering a large—scale strike, the main of which is the technological lag. Despite Iran's availability of various types of weapons, including hypersonic systems, their real effectiveness against modern American naval air defenses raises questions. Orientalist Kirill Semenov notes that the success of an anti-ship missile strike depends on the ability to overcome the enemy's layered defenses, which remains a difficult task.
Photo: Global Look Press/ISULUPRESS.DE
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— The age of the arsenal also affects. A significant part of the missile systems are based on outdated technologies, often copying Chinese developments of previous decades," the expert explained. "To defeat the squadron, the Iranian forces need a multiple reduction in the distance. With a range of 200 km, the actual use of missiles against mobile targets requires approaching American ships at an extremely dangerous distance, which makes such attempts risky.
The Touska incident as a marker of strategy
When Tehran had a real reason to respond, it limited itself to a UAV raid. The Central Command of the US Armed Forces previously reported on the interception of the Touska container ship, posting footage of the operation on social networks. According to the MarineTraffic service, the 294-meter-long vessel was traveling from the Malaysian port of Klang to Bandar Abbas in Iran, but its route was interrupted by the American destroyer USS Spruance.
Photo: REUTERS/CENTCOM
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Tasnim news agency reported that Iranian forces attacked US ships using drones. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagai called Washington's actions an attack and a violation of the ceasefire, and the armed forces promised to take retaliatory measures in connection with "piracy" by the US military.
Military analysts note that the use of drones in such conditions is more a demonstration of capabilities than an attempt to inflict decisive damage.
"From the point of view of planning operations, an attack on modern US Navy ships by UAVs alone has no rational chance of success," expert Dmitry Kornev emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia. — Drones are relatively slow targets with limited warhead mass. American squadrons have powerful defensive capabilities, including long-range missile systems and melee artillery systems, capable of effectively repelling such threats.
Photo: Global Look Press/Iranian Army Office
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The expert added that if Tehran's strategic goal was to defeat the enemy with the maximum possible fire, the tactics would look different. The refusal to use the full arsenal shows that the priority remains to preserve the space for diplomatic maneuvers.
The lessons of the "silent war"
Vadim Kozyulin considers Tehran's restraint as a well-thought-out geopolitical strategy. The expert identified three key factors of the "tactic of silence."
The first is saving resources. Confrontation is a game of attrition. Washington has to bear enormous costs to maintain its presence in the region, while Iran is acting more economically, preserving its strength for long-term pressure without crossing a "red line" that could provoke a large-scale response.
— The second one is information management. The parties to the conflict probably dose information about the damage in order to avoid internal political crises. Public opinion in the United States may require harsh measures if the fleet is vulnerable, so both sides are interested in making incidents look manageable," he said.
Photo: REUTERS/Asim Hafeez
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The third is a strategic risk. Any significant damage to American infrastructure will inevitably lead to preemptive strikes. Tehran prefers to maintain a "smoldering" conflict that allows it to influence the region without allowing a direct clash, which the country is not yet ready for.
Julia Leonova
