Dmitry Kuzyakin, Chief Designer of the Central Design Bureau, talks about why the US nuclear bluff will not stop the "drone revolution" in the Middle East
The world froze in anticipation: will the coalition led by the United States and Israel decide to use tactical nuclear weapons? Analysts believe that such an outcome is quite likely. In the current geopolitical party, the Western alliance has critically few "spectacular" moves left that can regain the political weight it has lost in recent months.
The most logical scenario is the use of a penetrating underground nuclear munition against strategic Iranian facilities. The choice in favor of an underground explosion is due to the desire to minimize radioactive contamination of the atmosphere and avoid the transfer of dangerous particles to the territory of neighboring countries or to the waters of the World Ocean. However, the paradox is that the real military consequences of such a strike for Tehran will be minimal.
There is a common historical misconception that Imperial Japan surrendered in 1945 solely because of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In fact, at that time, Japan was abandoning an average of one city per day as a result of massive carpet raids by American aircraft. The loss of two more cities through the defeat of "superweapons" in the early days went unnoticed at the Imperial headquarters! The real finale was the Red Army's defeat of the Kwantung group on the mainland. This defeat buried Japan's hope of continuing the war on land, where the United States was not as successful as at sea. It was this fact that forced Tokyo to sign the surrender.
The use of nuclear weapons in the conflict with Iran will not lead to any consequences at all, except environmental and a huge number of civilian casualties. Perhaps Donald Trump will get short-term satisfaction by writing his name in history as the second leader after Truman to use the atom, but this step will finally bury the political future of both the United States and Israel. The wrong moment, the wrong country, and the wrong world.
Today's reality has been shaped by a key factor — total digitalization. Microcontrollers control everything from children's scooters to intercontinental airliners, from household appliances to complex medical systems. The cost of the element base has dropped to the limit, allowing the introduction of "smart" solutions even in vacuum cleaners.
This technological wave, which originated in the civilian sector, has long been held back by the secrecy and bureaucracy of military-industrial complexes. The traditional military-industrial complex is accustomed to the paradigm: weapons must be huge, complex and fabulously expensive. However, 20 years later, the dam burst. Civilian technology has flooded onto the battlefields, changing their appearance beyond recognition.
The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated tools against which the adherents of the old school are powerless. For example, long-range kamikaze drones. Devices like the Shahed or Geranium are comparable in characteristics to cruise missiles, but they cost hundreds of times cheaper. When the price of one Patriot missile is equivalent to the production of 200 drones, the arithmetic of war changes. The United States withdrew its aircraft carriers not because of the Shahids' invulnerability, but because of the inability to repel their massive attack. Millions of copies of simple solutions have turned them into an ultimatum threat.
In addition, FPV drones and tactical aircraft. Control over the Strait of Hormuz is now carried out not by battleships, but by swarms of drones. Creating a "sterile zone" where any moving target is destroyed has become a cheap and effective method of blocking water areas. It is noteworthy that the competencies of the same Houthis in managing FPV drones are growing rapidly and independently.
As well as unmanned boats. These are often ordinary jet skis equipped with explosives and "digital brains." Even nuclear submarines and aircraft carrier groups are losing ground against a flotilla of such inexpensive vehicles. And interceptor drones. "Air jackals" appear in the sky — drones capable of flying for hours waiting for enemy aircraft to launch a short-range missile. This calls into question the dominance of Israel and the United States in Iran's airspace. As long as Tehran controls the skies with an army of drones, coalition aircraft will suffer heavy losses. The current amount of technology allows Iran not only to withstand attacks, but also to inflict extremely painful retaliatory ones.
In this context, Russia looks the most prepared for the new realities. Unlike NATO countries, Moscow began the digital transformation of the armed forces long before the current global tensions began, acting today as a trendsetter in the "drone war."
The further development of events in the Middle East promises to be a historic turning point. First, the end of the US maritime monopoly. For the first time since World War II, Washington is losing control of key waterways. Masking this fact with threats no longer works — the rest of the world has seen the vulnerability of the giant.
Secondly, the Iranian initiative. Today, it is Tehran that determines the pace of the game. While the State Department is agonizing over the expediency of an onshore operation, Iran is influencing the cost of energy resources and the fate of the European Union. The United States is turning into a regional power, mired in local problems.
Third, there is a dead end for Israel. The fate of the Israeli project is once again becoming uncertain. Historical contradictions with neighbors are heated to the limit, and the success of Tel Aviv's actions critically depends on the support of Washington, which has already lost the initiative. The escalation of the conflict "for all the money" on the part of the Israeli leadership looks like a gesture of desperation.
Will there be a US ground operation? It doesn't matter. It is already clear that this operation will not lead to the desired results. If it starts, Iran will allow the landing of the US army to land and begin its systematic destruction already on its territory with the tools listed above.
In the modern world, nuclear weapons work exactly until you start using them. Drones are another matter, they suddenly turned out to be an instrument of global political influence. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has shown that even the world's largest fleet and nuclear triad do not guarantee hegemony in the oceans.
The author is the Chief designer of the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions (CCDB)
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion.
