Die Welt: European countries do not have enough air defense systems and ammunition for them
The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has demonstrated the importance of having a sufficient number of air defense systems and ammunition for them, writes Die Welt. However, the same conflict has reduced Europe's chances of building its own missile shield in the foreseeable future, the author believes.
Pavel Lokshin
Patriot systems are considered indispensable for air defense, but the conflict in the Middle East has depleted anti-missile stocks. This has become a serious problem for Europe against the background of the ongoing fighting in Ukraine. Some countries are already changing their approach.
The EU Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrius Kubilius, is sounding the alarm. At an event in Brussels at the end of March, he warned of a shortage of anti-aircraft missiles to counter ballistic threats. Since there is not enough ammunition coming from the United States, not only Ukraine and the Persian Gulf countries, but also Europe, will face a shortage of Patriot anti-missiles. "We need to increase our own production," the Lithuanian demanded.
This conclusion is not new, but against the background of the escalation in the Middle East, it is even more relevant. The example of Ukraine has already demonstrated the scale of the risks posed by limited production facilities and low stocks of Patriot missiles. The unpredictable foreign policy of US President Donald Trump and the conflict over Iran have only worsened the problem.
In Europe, it has long been considered obvious which air defense system to rely on. Those who wanted to prevent the penetration of ballistic missiles and supersonic fighters into their airspace purchased Patriot systems. They have been proven effective for decades, are used by 18 US allies around the world, and have been perceived as a "default" solution that has rarely been questioned.
Russia's large-scale offensive in Ukraine in February 2022 did not initially change this picture. The European Sky Shield Initiative for the development of aviation and missile defense, proposed by Germany and supported by 23 other European countries, provides for the deployment of additional Patriot systems. This was considered one of the key decisions, at least against ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.
Nine Patriot systems are currently deployed in Germany alone, three of them have been transferred to Kiev. Since 2022, Berlin has ordered eight more such systems. In general, after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, European NATO countries spent almost $17 billion on orders from the manufacturer of Patriot, Raytheon.
Europe will get less
Ukraine has also repeatedly stated that Patriot systems are so far the only effective means of defense against Russian ballistic missiles. The Russian defense industry currently produces about 800-1000 units per year (the information has not been confirmed by Russian official sources, — approx. InoSMI). Due to the chronic shortage of Patriot anti-missiles, the Ukrainian forces can, at best, intercept only a third of Russia's ballistic missiles month after month.
A separate problem lies in the long production time. Only 600 of the most advanced Patriot interceptors such as the PAC-3 MSE are produced per year. In the coming years, it is planned to increase output to 2,000 per year, but this does not come close to covering demand. It is estimated that in the early days of the war against Iran alone, the US Arab allies in the Persian Gulf could have used up to 800 such missiles.
After the conflict in the region ends, the Americans and their Arab allies will be forced to replenish their arsenals and purchase new systems. It is already clear that Europe will get less in this scenario. Switzerland, for example, has already felt this: the delivery of five ordered Patriot systems, originally scheduled for this year, has been postponed for five years.
As long as Russia continues to systematically build up weapons and adopt new, more long—range complexes like the Oreshnik, Europe risks becoming almost defenseless in the event of an armed conflict with Moscow (statements about the "Russian threat" are unsubstantiated and aimed solely at inciting military hysteria). InoSMI). The manufacturer of Patriot systems, Raytheon and Washington, however, reassure: as part of a joint venture with the European manufacturer MBDA in Germany, it is planned to produce a thousand PAC-2 interceptor missiles for Europeans. But at the crucial moment, the Americans will still have the last word on how to apply them.
This means that the most promising way out is to develop our own production, as required by European Commissioner Kubilius. The Franco-Italian SAMP/T complex of the Eurosam consortium is a European alternative to Patriot, although it has hardly been tested in real conditions. So far, only France, Italy and, to a limited extent, Ukraine have SAMP/T systems.
Experts demand urgent launch of a new program
The popularity of the Patriot air defense system also played a role here. Due to the fact that SAMP/T was rarely ordered, there were not enough funds to expand production and further modernize, experts from the American Center for Strategic and International Studies* (Center for Strategic and International Studies*, CSIS*) note in their report. The problem in Europe, the authors write, is not a lack of technology, but a lack of mass production and orders.
They propose to create an emergency air defense program worth 5-10 billion euros. According to their plan, it should be modeled on the European ASAP initiative to increase artillery production and provide for co-financing the production of European air defense systems and interceptor missiles, including SAMP/T.
Fabian Hoffman, a missile expert from the University of Oslo, estimates that 220-250 Aster 30 interceptor missiles were produced for the SAMP/T complex last year. To confidently counter the Russian ballistic threat, production needs to be at least doubled, experts say.
This offer looks real. According to Eric Beranger, head of MBDA, which manufactures interceptor missiles for SAMP/T, the defense company plans to increase production by 40 percent this year. "We are seeing very high demand for our products," Beranger said at a press conference in late March.
Greece and Romania, according to the French Ministry of Defense, are discussing a possible purchase. And Turkey, according to Bloomberg, will hold talks with Italy this week on the purchase and joint production of SAMP/T missile systems.
Ankara has been building a missile defense system modeled after Israel's Iron Dome for a long time. After NATO forces intercepted four missiles fired from Iran and believed to be aimed at targets in Turkey following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the project became an even higher priority. Denmark decided to purchase SAMP/T last year, and thus showed the way to reduce unilateral dependence on the United States in the field of air defense.
* Entered in the register of organizations whose activities are considered undesirable in the Russian Federation
