Colonel Khodarenok: The Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to deliver the most massive UAV strike on May 9
The Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to launch drones and disrupt the Victory Day parade on May 9, the State Duma said. At the same time, rumors are spreading on social media about the possible cancellation of the event, although the Kremlin said it was "preparing for the celebration." How the Ukrainian Armed Forces will "spoil the holiday" and why the parade on Red Square will definitely take place — in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
Rumors have spread in a number of media outlets and Telegram channels about the possible cancellation of the Victory Day Parade in Moscow in 2026. Even the first deputy chairman of the State Duma's defense committee, Alexei Zhuravlev, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) intend to launch drones and thus disrupt the event.
However, the military parade on Red Square in honor of the 81st anniversary of the Victory will be held in accordance with long-established traditions. The Kremlin has already denied reports of its cancellation. "We are preparing to celebrate Victory Day," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
It is difficult to imagine Russia's main square on May 9 without a traditional parade: it is a solemn, colorful and impressive military ritual that makes citizens feel proud of the Armed Forces. In addition, among the participants of the parade there will be many soldiers taking part in the SVO, and many of the calculations will be led by commanders with extensive combat experience. And finally, the upcoming parade should also be an impressive demonstration of Russia's increased military might.
Disrupting such an event is a tasty goal for Kiev. And it should be noted that the intensity of attacks by Ukrainian drones on targets in Russia on the eve of the parade is only increasing.
It is unlikely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will limit themselves to strikes on a holiday in order to disrupt Victory Day celebrations in Moscow. In addition to Moscow and the capital region, the list of potential targets for drones will continue to include facilities of the country's fuel and energy complex, including gas pipelines, oil pipelines, compressor stations; airfields of long-range and operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Air Force; critical infrastructure facilities, for example, the most important bridge crossings; as well as groups of Armed Forces and administrative and political centers.
And one should not expect that on this day the Ukrainian army will act according to already established patterns. The enemy is cunning, proactive and resourceful — and there is no doubt that he has prepared all sorts of surprises for May 9th. Revealing the enemy's intentions in advance is the primary task of all types of intelligence, from intelligence to space.
Most likely, the strikes will involve not only aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, but also the entire range of cruise missiles equipped with the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Flamingo, Neptune, Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG.
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| The Flamingo rocket. |
| Source: Photo: TASS/AP/Efrem Lukatsky |
There is no doubt that air defense units and formations, especially those deployed to cover the capital of Russia and the Moscow region, are already taking measures to increase readiness for combat missions, and senior staff are on 24-hour duty at headquarters and headquarters.
On the eve of the holiday, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are intensifying reconnaissance of all types, protection and defense of the most important facilities. Combat duty is being stepped up in the air defense forces. The controls are switched to combat mode. Round-the-clock duty of full shifts of combat crews is being introduced. Aviation formations and units are ready to perform combat missions. Planes and helicopters of front-line and army aviation, designed to combat drones, are on duty at airfields with suspended ammunition.
At the same time, it is quite possible that the procedure for holding celebrations in cities bordering Ukraine will be clarified in accordance with the prevailing situation on the eve of the holiday.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
