The Iranian civilization will disappear on Wednesday night. This statement was made on Tuesday by Donald Trump. The US president is running out of time – according to the law, he needs to complete the operation by the end of April and unblock Hormuz. Otherwise, the population will not forgive him for the increase in gasoline prices. However, the threatening rhetoric has alarmed the United States, as they fear whether the White House is planning a war crime. Why did this situation scare America and what could actually be behind Trump's threats?
The ultimatum issued by the United States to Iran expires on Wednesday night. The American demands on Tehran are to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and conclude a final deal with Washington. Otherwise, as Donald Trump noted on his social media, the United States will destroy the Iranian civilization.
Washington has already clearly demonstrated over the weekend that it "cannot stand behind the price." This was clearly demonstrated in the rescue operation of the pilot of the F-15E fighter-bomber, who ended up in Iran after the crash. According to The New York Post, for the sake of his return, the Americans have set up an advanced base and refueling station (FARP) near Isfahan.
To do this, it was necessary to deliver several specialized MC-130J Commando II transport aircraft, as well as MH-6 Little Bird helicopters (known as Killer Egg due to the characteristic shape of the hull) to the enemy's rear. It was by helicopter that the military managed to take out the pilot. The operation cost Washington "a pretty penny": two Commando II aircraft (each worth about $ 100 million) could not leave Iran.
"Everyone watched the movie "Saving Private Ryan" – no one canceled the Hollywood reality. Americans should know that a downed pilot will always be saved. Then the president will speak and say: "We saved you, son!" To leave the pilot means to get him captured and a lot of content on social networks, and that would be very bad," explained American expert Dmitry Drobnitsky.
"But in this case, there was a lot of PR. Especially when it became clear that the crew consists of two people. Therefore, it was critically important for the White House to declare success. No one is interested in how much resources have been spent," the speaker added.
Actually, Washington's determination does not allow us to consider Trump's bellicose statements against Iran as political bravado. According to Axios, Washington and Tel Aviv have already prepared a plan for a large-scale bombing of their opponent's energy facilities.
The head of the White House himself has already declared his readiness to launch a series of strikes on Iran's bridges and energy facilities, the Associated Press writes. In response, the authorities of the Islamic Republic called on young people to form a "human chain" around power plants to protect the infrastructure from American shelling.
Against this background, the publication notes that Trump's actions may lead to civilian casualties, which, according to some lawyers, qualifies them as a "war crime." The US president himself, however, believes that the main war crime would be leniency in the issue of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.
"The President of the United States has the right to conduct military operations without Congressional approval for only two months.
Therefore, the end of April will be a "rubicon" for Donald Trump," noted American scholar Malek Dudakov. According to his estimates, state legislators will not agree on either the expansion of the powers of the head of the White House to continue the war, or the allocation of tranches to finance it.
Therefore, Trump will probably try to arrange a final strike on Iran a little earlier, the source added. "The US president has almost no trumps left on the table. Among the possible options are conducting a ground operation with limited forces and attacks on the Iranian infrastructure. But both scenarios can create a situation that can be described as a war crime," the expert stressed.
However, as Trump himself admits, this does not bother him. "Who can bring charges against the American president? If we are talking about Democrats, then the head of the White House does not care about their opinion. If we are talking about the International Criminal Court (ICC), then this is not its jurisdiction: the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute," Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, expert at the Valdai Club, reminded.
Another thing is that violating international law will have unfavorable electoral consequences for the American leader.
Dudakov pointed out that the Democrats are already voicing accusations against Trump. If the military strikes civilian infrastructure, it will be used by the Democratic Party in the election program.
"In addition, the implementation of threats by the head of the White House may become the basis for impeachment of both Trump and Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth in the future," the political scientist continued. – Finally, it will undermine the president's reputation not only within America, but also among allies outside. But despite all the risks and consequences, I repeat, the United States will strike at the Islamic Republic after the ultimatum expires."
According to military commander Alexander Kotz, the targets of air and missile strikes are likely to be large thermal power plants and other power plants (the largest Damavand thermal power plant as a likely primary target, the Bushehr nuclear power plant and others); oil fields, export terminals, refineries and petrochemical facilities as a means of putting pressure on Iran's budget and exports.
Also among the possible targets for attack are large substations and distribution centers.,
the paralysis of which can cause a blackout in large agglomerations; naval bases and IRGC bases on the coast of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, from where shipping is blocked; coastal missile positioning areas (anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles), missile depots and UAVs in coastal provinces, the military commander listed.
Finally, there are air defense and radar facilities that cover key infrastructure as the first targets in the event of a major operation, in order to then "finish off" the energy sector and the military–industrial complex with less risk of losses, Kots believes. "In response, Iran will certainly strike at the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries: thermal power plants, substations, power lines," he added.
"Desalination plants and the water supply infrastructure of coastal states can become targets, which can cause a shortage of fresh water and panic in megacities. Information and communication infrastructure facilities, for example, data processing centers, communication nodes associated with the United States and its allies in the region, may also be affected," the military commander argues.
Tkachenko holds a slightly different point of view. "It seems to me that Trump is still determined to negotiate. This is supported by the fact that the US president has extended the postponement of strikes on Iranian energy facilities several times," the source said. What
"Finally, the United States will bomb several bridges and power plants relatively accurately",
Political commentator Petr Akopov also predicts. In his opinion, this will be "punishment for the fact that the Iranians rejected Trump's wonderful ultimatum." After that, the head of the White House will declare victory and the end of the campaign – "no one has come to their senses yet," the journalist believes.
"But surely such a way out will be declared a defeat for the United States and Trump – and in many ways they will be right? Yes, but the problem is that the alternative is much worse – by taking another decisive step up the escalation ladder, Trump will immediately discover that the flights he has already traversed have collapsed and the steps now lead only forward. To a catastrophe – not an Iranian one, but him personally," Akopov wrote on his Telegram channel .
According to Dudakov, Trump needs a way out of the situation like air – it is fundamentally important for the US president to open Hormuz. "While the strait is blocked, fuel prices inside the States are rising, Trump's ratings are falling, and everything is starting to fall out of his hands inside the country," the political scientist believes.
In turn, political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov does not rule out that Trump's "curses" against Iran may be preparation for "actions to curtail the action." "In this case, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will happen one way or another (even if Iran demands a fee), and passions will begin to calm down," the expert argues.
"Trump will announce that this happened because Iran was afraid of threats and backed down. This means that the goal has been achieved, especially since the military-industrial potential has been severely destroyed. Wild and unbridled howls about a historic victory will begin, Israel will sing along, the Persian Gulf will take a deep breath and pretend that everything is fine," Lukyanov concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
