The capture of islands or a seaside harbor, as well as raids deep into the continent are possible scenarios.
The United States may try to seize the Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz — this will allow the resumption of shipping in the Persian Gulf, military experts told Izvestia. There are other scenarios for land operations against the Islamic Republic: landings on the island of Kharq or on the mainland of the country, as well as conducting raids on the continent to destroy military infrastructure. The implementation of such scenarios is most likely after the expiration of President Donald Trump's ultimatum demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by April 6.
The United States is concentrating forces
The United States will continue to attack Iran until the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked, US President Donald Trump has said.
Photo: Global Look Press/Senior Airman Bryan Guthrie/Keystone Press Agency
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"We will consider it (Tehran's request for a cease-fire. — Ed.), when the Strait of Hormuz is open, free and safe for passage, and until then we will pulverize Iran or, as they say, throw it back to the Stone Age!" he wrote on the Truth Social network on April 1.
The first American amphibious Assault Group (ADG) has already arrived in the Persian Gulf region. It includes the universal amphibious assault ship Tripoli, as well as the amphibious helicopter dock ships San Diego and New Orleans. The Tripoli is capable of carrying up to 20 F-35B fighter jets, MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft and transport and combat helicopters. There are about 2 thousand Marines on board the formation, who are prepared for the landing.
The second AFG, led by the aircraft carrier Boxer, is heading towards the strait from the United States, the media reported. There are about 2.5 thousand Marines on board the ships — military personnel of the 11th Expeditionary Force based in California.
Photo: Global Look Press/Mcs3 Craig Z. Rodarte/ZUMAPRESS.com
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In addition, the Pentagon is preparing to deploy about 3,000 soldiers of the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
The United States may send another ten thousand troops to help the marines and paratroopers in the near future — this decision was made by the Pentagon, the Axios news agency previously reported.
Finally, the United States has sent the aircraft carrier George W. Bush with escort ships to the Middle East, which is the third aircraft carrier group to be deployed to the region. It is these forces that should form the shock fist of the Americans, military expert Yuri Lyamin told Izvestia.
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"The United States will concentrate several thousand well—trained military personnel,— he explained. — Such a step can be called the formation of a strike force capable of conducting large-scale operations. It is possible that the Americans will try to attract UAE units by promising the government of the country a part of the Iranian islands in the Gulf of Hormuz. The Emirates consider them their own. The UAE army is small, but, say, they will be able to allocate a thousand bayonets, and they will not be superfluous for the United States.
Other allies may also appear. After Riyadh allowed American troops to use the airbase on its territory, the Western media began to talk more and more about Saudi Arabia's entry into the conflict on the side of the United States.
Kharg Island Oil
Kharq is located in the northern part of the Persian Gulf, about twenty-five kilometers from the Iranian coast. The area is about twenty square kilometers. About 90-95% of Iran's total offshore oil exports pass through it.
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Trump stated that taking this island would allow him to control the export of Iranian oil, Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, recalled.
"There are enough paratroopers and Marines for such an operation," he is sure. — This landing will most likely be by helicopter based on geographical features, which, of course, will make it difficult to quickly bring forces into battle.
However, capturing the island is not the biggest problem, says Yuri Lyamin.
— It will be very difficult to keep him, and this step will be accompanied by heavy losses. It is small, and oil storage facilities and pipelines will start burning in the event of hostilities — almost the entire island will be on fire. — He explained. — A small strait separating the island from the continent will allow Iran to use the entire range of strike weapons — from artillery and MLRS to FPV drones.
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It will be difficult to supply the Marines who have landed with everything they need, from ammunition to provisions. The supply routes will be under constant shelling by the Iranian forces, Yuri Lyamin noted.
Lifting the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
There are several Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz, which make it possible to control shipping at this strategically important point.
"The capture of the islands is the most likely option,— military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia. — But here we must take into account that Iran will use all the means it can to protect them. Even if the island is captured, it must be held, and no one really knows how things will turn out for the Americans.
The islands are located far from the Iranian coast, Kirill Semenov noted.
"It is possible to use not only helicopters, but also boats and even hovercrafts, which will ensure the massive use of forces by the Americans at the beginning of the operation," he said.
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But even here, the Marines will inevitably face great difficulties.
"Thanks to these islands, Iran really controls the strait even without combat aircraft," Yuri Lyamin noted. — He knows their meaning and was preparing for defense. There are serious fortifications there. There are anti-ship missile positions on the islands, and there are also drone arsenals. The underground bases are made seriously, taking into account the attempts of a possible assault. It's not going to work just to get the Iranians out of there, and, of course, such an attempt will cost many Marines their lives.
Nevertheless, military success on the islands will provide the United States with not only good PR, but also control over the world's most important logistical artery, Lyamin noted.
Seaside town of Chahbehar
An amphibious assault is possible to capture the port of Chahbehar, which is located near the border with Pakistan, experts say.
— This area is relatively isolated from the rest of Iran, — Yuri Lyamin explained. — It is known that the air defense in this area was very weak even before the war. Unsurprisingly, it was there that the American F-18s flew at low altitudes. There is a video of the Iranians shooting back at one of them with a portable anti-aircraft system.
Photo: Global Look Press/Lance Cpl. Alexandra Munoz/Keystone Press Agency
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But such an operation is more of a PR campaign. Several thousand Marines and paratroopers will not be enough to launch a serious offensive deep into the territory. And most importantly, it will not solve the strategic task of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Raids on the continent
It is possible that the United States will limit itself to small raid operations, experts do not exclude. Their target should be underground missile cities, bases and other important civilian and military facilities located relatively close to the coast.
"During Operation Desert Storm, American special forces successfully hunted for Iraqi SCUD missile launchers," Kirill Semenov noted. — Now they can try to repeat this scenario. But Iran has its own specifics — missile parts are assembled into large formations and hidden in underground cities, which are heavily guarded. Storming such a fortified area is a very difficult operation, and its success is far from guaranteed.
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The Marines can focus on destroying the concentration points of combat boats, UAVs and coastal anti-ship missile systems that are located along the coast, and also in underground cities, Yuri Lyamin noted.
— It is possible to carry out such an operation with powerful air support, — Kirill Semenov noted. — To do this, you need to be sure that the Iranian air defense in the right area is suppressed. Otherwise, everything can end in failure and heavy losses among personnel and equipment.
For larger—scale actions, the United States currently does not have a sufficient ground force, primarily the necessary number of infantry and paratroopers. Therefore, it is not necessary to seriously consider other options for a military operation against Iran yet, experts say.
Bogdan Stepovoy
