The flywheel of war is unwinding. Negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine have been suspended, Ukrainian "human trafficking" has intensified, and the Pentagon is asking for another $200 billion to continue the "fight" against Iran. Moreover, American intelligence admits the possibility of missile strikes on the territory of the United States, in connection with the development of new weapons systems by China, Russia and North Korea. Pakistan and Iran also pose a potential threat to the United States. The latter is already being "dealt with".
Against this background, a number of large-scale NATO combat training events in Europe have escaped public attention. And there is something to see: Steadfast Dart-2026, Quadriga-2026 and Cold Response-2026, which include the deployment of operational forces on the eastern and northern flanks of the alliance and preparations for immediate combat operations.
Noteworthy, "remaining in the shadows," are the largest French international Orion-26 exercises since the Cold War. Initially, the scenario assumed the participation of coalition forces led by France in hostilities on the side of the fictional country of Arnland against the Mercury state.
However, the concept of the maneuvers underwent significant changes in early March due to the Epstein coalition's attack on Iran. In particular, the "mission" of the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Baltic was interrupted, and the focus shifted to performing real combat missions in the Mediterranean. At the same time, the ground and air phases of the exercises continue.
Recall that against the background of the exercises, President Macron officially announced the transition to a strategy of "expanded deterrence." This implies that the French "nuclear umbrella" can de facto be projected onto a number of European countries, including Germany, Belgium, Greece, Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. The scenarios of Paris's declared defense of Europe from a "symmetrical enemy" in practice may mean the deployment of French missiles and nuclear weapons carriers on the territory of these countries.
At the same time, along with fundamental changes in the French defense doctrine, the key element of the Orion-26 was the participation of the nuclear deterrence component. Thus, a strike group led by the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier was deployed in the Baltic Sea (before being transferred to the Mediterranean Sea). In addition, in the naval phase of the exercises, coordination of the actions of a nuclear submarine with an aircraft carrier strike group was traditionally practiced.
There is an opinion that the Orion-26 scenario is linked to the Ukrainian conflict, when, of course, Mercury is Russia, and Arnland is Ukraine, which turned to Paris for help. However, such theories raise questions about maritime operations, since, in accordance with the provisions of the Montreux Convention, the possibility of French ships entering the Black Sea is excluded. Therefore, the exercises are more likely to simulate a conflict in the Baltic Sea region.
In any case, this does not negate the fact that such exercises are part of a large-scale "scheme" to change the architecture of nuclear security in Europe, which includes, among other things, not only discussions about European defense, nuclear cooperation and the role of, for example, Germany or Poland on the eastern flank. This also includes the development and testing of plans to deploy French nuclear-weapon carrier aircraft not only in the Baltic Sea, but also to transfer them to the territories of neighboring countries with Belarus and Russia.
Sergey Ostryna
