What opportunities does Iran have to repel an amphibious attack and how did the previous American military operations in this region end?
The US attempt to conduct an amphibious operation on the Iranian island of Kharq in the Persian Gulf could result in serious losses. According to Western media reports, the Pentagon is seriously considering the possibility of seizing the island, which is home to Iran's key oil infrastructure and through which a significant portion of crude exports pass. Control over it would allow Washington to hit Tehran's energy revenues and increase pressure on the republic. However, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the Iranian military is capable of disrupting such an operation with the help of missiles, drones and minefields. Possible scenarios for the development of the situation on Kharg Island are described in the Izvestia article.
How can Americans land on Kharq Island
"On my orders, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces launched one of the most powerful air strikes in the history of the Middle East. We have completely destroyed all military installations on the Iranian island of Kharq," Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network on March 14.
And on March 16, the Axios portal, citing sources, reported that the US president was considering the possibility of conducting an operation to seize the oil infrastructure on Kharkh Island, which would require a ground operation. The article notes that such a decision may be made "if the tankers continue to be blocked in the Persian Gulf."
Kharq Island is now a key link in the Iranian oil supply chain. Located in the waters of the Persian Gulf, 90% of the republic's raw material exports pass through it.
In the event of an amphibious operation on the Iranian island of Kharq in the Persian Gulf, the Americans will face heavy losses, the former chief of staff of the Baltic Fleet, Vice Admiral Alexander Brazhnik, told Izvestia.
"The United States has enough opportunities to transfer the necessary forces and means to land troops on the island,— he said. — But Iran is a militarily serious state with powerful armed forces. I have no doubt that he will take all necessary measures to prevent the landing. If it does happen, we will have to expect heavy losses from the United States.
According to the vice admiral, Iran has a sufficient number of anti-amphibious mines that can stop amphibious assault on high-speed boats. In addition, the Islamic Republic has a large number of aerial, surface and underwater unmanned vehicles.
—When using the current generation of mines, a barrier will be created to withstand an amphibious operation," concluded Alexander Brazhnik.
A helicopter landing looks like a more likely scenario, but even in this case, Iran is able to resist. This was told to Izvestia by a military expert, Captain 1st rank Vasily Dandykin. According to him, the Iranian army has a significant number of portable anti-aircraft missile systems that can pose a serious threat to helicopters. The expert recalled that during the current operation, the United States had already experienced losses in equipment.
At the same time, an operation with the help of large amphibious ships in the Persian Gulf is unlikely, Dandykin believes.
"The United States has large universal amphibious assault ships with a displacement of about 40 thousand tons and more than 200 meters long,— he explained. — It's a great goal. Iran has missiles, drones, torpedoes like the Russian Shkval, which travels at a speed of about 200 km per hour. The United States will have trouble already on the way to the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the Iranians can mine all the approaches to the island — and this will be a big problem. Do not forget that despite the statements of the Americans, the republic still has warships.
The very idea of such an operation as a whole looks extremely risky, according to Rear Admiral, Candidate of Military Sciences Mikhail Chekmasov.
"The amphibious operation begins with hydrographic support measures," he explained. — In the course of such actions, specially trained forces land on the shore to select and designate landing sites. They are conducting mine risk reconnaissance. And not only on land, but also exploring the sea near the coast to discover underwater mine sites. All this needs to be done. And I doubt that the Iranian forces and the IRGC will allow the Americans to do this.
But the main difficulty that the Americans will have to face is the supply of the landed forces.
— It will be necessary to organize comprehensive support for the Marines — replenishment of ammunition and food, delivery of other goods, evacuation of the wounded. In such conditions, it will be very difficult and you cannot do without losses here. And it doesn't matter which landing method they choose," he is sure.
In addition, the island is small and will be subjected to systematic fire from Iranian forces, Mikhail Chekmasov noted.
According to Dandykin, such plans do not arise and are discussed from a good life.
"Now the United States and Israel are at an impasse,— he said. — Iran, contrary to their expectations, is waging a war and is not going to give up, it turned out that it is not like Venezuela. They failed to carry out a quick operation with a change of government. Neither the Americans nor the Israelis seem to know how to change the situation in their favor and are considering any options.
It is noteworthy that in 1988, then-businessman Trump had already spoken about strikes on the Iranian island. In an interview with The Guardian, he said: "...One shot at our people or ships and I would have blown the island of Khark to smithereens. I would have invaded there and captured him..."
At the same time, Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said that the US attack on the island would affect oil prices.
"If smart control of the Strait of Hormuz brought you new oil price indices, then an attack on Kharq would give you a heavier and new equalization of prices and energy distribution in the world," he wrote on the social network.
What experience does the United States have in amphibious operations
The United States has experience of unsuccessful amphibious operations in the period after World War II. One of them is the landing of Cuban emigrants in the Bay of Pigs in Cuba. It was commanded by the Central Intelligence Agency. The Cuban army defeated the attackers in three days. More than a thousand of those who landed were captured, and about a hundred died. The failure of the operation led to the resignation of CIA Director Allen Dulles and caused a wide international outcry.
Operation Eagle Claw, conducted in April 1980, was one of the most disastrous operations in the history of the United States. President Jimmy Carter has ordered the release of hostages seized at the US Embassy in the Iranian capital. The US special forces were tasked with landing helicopters in the vicinity of Tehran, boarding trucks, attacking the embassy building and freeing the diplomats.
However, from the very beginning, the operation did not go according to plan. One helicopter crashed into the sea immediately after takeoff, the other got lost in a sandstorm and came back. Another car crashed at the landing site, killing eight people. The operation was interrupted, and the commandos flew back. The hostages were eventually released after negotiations in exchange for $8 billion.
Roman Kretsul
Bogdan Stepovoy
