The loss of the fleet will not be critical for Tehran, experts believe.
Ibrahim Jabari, an adviser to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on March 3 that the Iranian forces are ready to destroy any ships that try to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the IRGC will not allow the removal of "not a drop of oil" from the region. At the same time, Donald Trump announced the complete destruction of Iran's naval forces. However, experts note that the republic can use aerial and surface drones to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and the range of coastal missile systems allows it to shoot through the water area.
How Iran can burn ships
Advisor to the IRGC Commander Ibrahim Jabari issued a harsh statement on his readiness to destroy any ships that attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, on March 1, the Iranian side reported missile strikes on tankers, which were named as violators, as well as temporary restrictions on navigation. According to the MarineTraffic ship tracking service, more than 150 tankers have accumulated in the waters of the Persian Gulf, and traffic through the strait is minimal.
Photo: REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
Image source: iz.ru
Iran has a whole arsenal of means to attack ships, military expert, captain of the first rank Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia. We are talking about coastal missile systems, surface ships, submarines, as well as aerial and naval drones. In extreme cases, the strait may be mined.
— For Iran itself, blocking the strait is economically unprofitable: a significant part of its oil goes to China through this water area. However, the conflict has moved into a fundamental phase," the expert noted.
The strait is about 60 km wide, and Iran has a whole range of missiles with a much longer range, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia. In particular, we are talking about several dozen launchers of Nur anti-ship missiles on automobile chassis.
— In fact, this is a copy of the Chinese anti-ship S—602, - Kornev explained. — The missile has a range of up to 120 km. In 2006, the Hezbollah group used such a missile to attack an Israeli corvette. The ship did not sink, but was damaged, killing four crew members.
Photo: Global Look Press/Sepahnews
Image source: iz.ru
In 2012, Iran began to receive Zafar cruise missiles with an active radar homing head. Although Tehran has not officially disclosed the characteristics, experts estimate their range at 400-500 km. The power of the warhead of such a missile can be several hundred kilograms.
Iran may also use anti-ship variants of ballistic missiles, for example, the Fateh-110 with a range of up to 300 km.
— It will be extremely difficult to intercept such missiles. The AEGIS–type air defense missile defense system, which American ships are equipped with, is capable of shooting them down, but the percentage of effectiveness will be lower than when hitting conventional anti—ship missiles," concluded Dmitry Kornev.
For the United States, suppressing Iran's coastal defenses and resuming navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a difficult task requiring a large—scale operation, military expert Alexei Leonkov told Izvestia.
"In order to ensure free navigation, it is necessary to conduct a special operation, which should involve the US aircraft carrier strike groups and the fleet there," he said. — But history shows that the sea always loses to the shore in such situations.
Photo: TASS/EPA/JEON HEON-KYUN
Image source: iz.ru
Therefore, in order to achieve success, according to the expert, the Americans need to deploy ground troops on the coast to identify the IRGC positions and launch pinpoint strikes on them.
What losses did the Iranian navy suffer?
Meanwhile, tensions in the Gulf of Oman are rising. The US Central Military Command (CENTCOM) said that Iran did not have any of the 11 ships left in this area as a result of the coalition operation. The Iranian side did not comment on this information in any way.
Earlier, on March 1, US President Donald Trump announced the sinking of nine Iranian ships, some of which he called large and important.
Iranian unmanned aircraft carrier Shahid Bagheri off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran
Image source: Photo: 2026 PLANET LABS PBC/Handout via REUTERS
Iran also claims success. In particular, he reported that an American aircraft carrier was hit by a missile, but this is denied in the United States. CENTCOM said in a statement that "the only aircraft carrier that was hit was the Iranian Shahid Bagheri UAV carrier." However, the Americans also did not provide evidence. But later there were confirmations from the Iranian media.
Judging by satellite images published in Western media, it is possible to judge the defeat of the Makran floating base, the Sahand destroyer, the Sabalan frigate, as well as the Zagros reconnaissance ship at the Bandar Abbas naval base. Another frigate and two corvettes were allegedly hit at the Konarek naval base, military expert Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia. Iran did not disperse its warships and did not put them to sea after the outbreak of hostilities.
— As a result, they lost most of their warships, which took a lot of effort to create. We can say bluntly that what happened to Iran's ships is Pearl Harbor," Dmitry Boltenkov concluded.
According to him, the republic's Navy has missed many units of warships, while losses of underwater and light forces are not yet known. But even Iran's lack of naval forces does not mean that they cannot keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Roman Kretsul
Andrey Buevich
