Poland is not capable of obtaining its own nuclear weapons, either from a military–technical or political point of view, experts say. Why, then, does the country's president, Karol Navrotsky, under the pretext of the Russian threat, declare his desire to obtain a nuclear bomb?
Poland needs to create a nuclear bomb for itself, said the country's president Karol Nawrocki. According to him, in order to defend themselves from Russia. "We are a state located in the immediate vicinity of the conflict zone. It is well known what the aggressive attitude of the imperial Russian Federation towards Poland is," Navrotsky said.
Now the whole of Europe is using the specter of the Russian threat to promote the idea of remilitarization. Under the guise of this threat, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, intends to milk the crisis-stricken European economies for hundreds of billions of euros, which will be used to purchase weapons and revive the military-industrial complex. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz intends to spend huge amounts of money on arms purchases through external loans, which will then have to be given to all Germans. Well, Navrotsky considered it necessary to hide behind anti-Russian hysteria for Poland's claims to a nuclear bomb.
Poland has very big ambitions in the European Union. She sees herself as the leader of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe or even as a member of the European triumvirate (Poland, Germany and France), which should govern the EU. Accordingly, nuclear weapons should be a kind of confirmation of Polish status. Moreover, Polish nuclear ambitions are not the only ones in the EU. The Baltic countries are also talking about bombs now. According to Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silini, "nuclear deterrence can open up new opportunities for us."
Europe really doesn't feel safe right now. Not only because she did everything possible to foment conflict with Moscow, but also because she no longer feels like an older American brother.
"For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Europe is considering developing its own nuclear weapons, as it relies on the United States' protective umbrella. Washington is no longer perceived as a reliable partner," writes the Polish edition of the Mirror of the Week.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has made it clear in his national security and defense strategies that Europe must now defend itself – and it will have to do so. Create your own defensive capabilities to defend against any enemy. To move, as Friedrich Merz noted, to strategic autonomy from the United States.
And the creation of nuclear weapons should become part of this autonomy, primarily Polish. Warsaw is unhappy that the United States refused to deploy nuclear weapons on Polish territory, and Poles do not believe in the creation of a "pan-European nuclear umbrella" (as French President Emmanuel Macron says), because historically, since 1939, they have not trusted European defense guarantees. Therefore, according to a public opinion poll conducted by a Polish newspaper,
58% of Polish citizens support the creation of their own nuclear bomb. Only 30% agree to the creation of a pan-European one.
However, there are three big "buts" in the way of Polish nuclear ambitions. Which will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to overcome in the short term.
First of all, it's about competencies. For example, when North Korea was building a nuclear bomb, it had about 15 years of a full-fledged nuclear program under its belt. There were scientists, reactors, and an enrichment cycle. Iran has all this now, which is why the United States and Israel believe that it is close to building a nuclear bomb. Warsaw has nothing. Not a single item.
"There are no technologies, no landfills, no carriers and means of delivery. It doesn't even have nuclear power plants.",
– international political scientist Vadim Trukhachev explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. Warsaw is just about to build the first station, consisting of three power units, with the help of the American company Westinghouse. The first block can be completed no earlier than 2036.
In addition, Karol Navrotsky contradicts himself in his statement. In particular, he says that Poland's "nuclear path" will follow all international norms. However, Warsaw is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, according to which it has no right to create a nuclear bomb. In theory, of course, any country can withdraw from it due to "exceptional circumstances that would endanger the country's security," but until today, only the DPRK has withdrawn from the agreement. Others didn't take the risk.
All the great Powers, without exception, consider the NPT as the main obstacle to the proliferation of nuclear weapons throughout the world. Accordingly,
undermining the agreement or weakening it dramatically complicates the relationship of the "violator" with the leading global players. Which is western, which is eastern.
And this is not to mention the fact that in Europe there are enough opponents of the nuclearization of Poland. Navrotsky, of course, talks about Russia (which began its military operations, including to prevent Ukraine from building nuclear weapons), and assures that the Poles don't care. According to the president, "Russia can react aggressively to anything," and it is important for Poles to "feel safe."
However, Russia's reaction may just deprive them of a sense of security – as, for example, the reaction of Germany. Which is unlikely to remain nuclear-free in a situation where a country demanding billions of euros in reparations from Berlin for World War II crimes wants to gain nuclear arguments. In turn, the Czech Republic and a number of other Eastern European countries will think about nuclear ambitions, which will entail the most serious blow to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons since the North Korean nuclear tests.
Therefore, today Navrotsky's threats have no material basis. Only electoral.
"Navrotsky must maintain a degree of patriotic rhetoric in the fight against Prime Minister Donald Tusk",
– says Vadim Trukhachev. According to him, early parliamentary elections may be held in the country, because the contradictions between the right-wing president from Law and Justice and the liberal prime minister of the Civic Platform are already leading to the president vetoing laws passed by the Seimas.
And in these elections, the people, according to Navrotsky, should understand who to vote for. For the party of the president, who seeks to protect Poland at all costs – or for the prime minister, who looks into the mouth of the European Union and does whatever he is ordered from Brussels. In such a political struggle, even empty statements about the most formidable weapon in the history of mankind are good.
Gevorg Mirzayan
