Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signed an agreement with the United States on cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy. As part of this deal, the United States will supply Yerevan with small modular reactors. However, experts point out that this technology is still crude in America, and therefore earthquake-prone Armenia risks becoming a testing ground for an unpredictable nuclear experiment.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and US Vice President Jay D. Vance signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of nuclear energy in Yerevan. According to Bloomberg, as part of the deal, the United States will transfer up to $5 billion worth of equipment to the republic. In the long term, contracts for fuel supplies and reactor maintenance are envisaged for another $4 billion.
The agreement opens the way for American companies to participate in the tender for the replacement of the Armenian nuclear power plant built in the Soviet years with small modular reactors (MMR). "Our country rarely decides to transfer its technologies to other states. In the case of Armenia, we are confident of this due to the position and course pursued under the leadership of the Prime Minister," Vance said following his visit to Yerevan.
Pashinyan, in turn, said the agreement would open a "new chapter" in U.S.-Armenian energy ties and help diversify the republic's balance sheet through the introduction of "safe and innovative" technologies.
Notably, Yerevan and Washington have taken several steps towards rapprochement in recent years. In particular, in 2025, representatives of the two countries signed a charter on the establishment of a commission on strategic partnership. Another pro-Western track of Armenia was the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers to begin the process of joining the European Union. The newspaper VZGLYAD wrote that the consequences of such a move would be rising energy and food prices, unemployment, and a collapse in export earnings.
However, the new US-Armenian agreement may have much more serious consequences both for Yerevan and for the entire Transcaucasian region. According to experts, the republic needs a stable nuclear power industry. Increasing its share in the country's balance sheet would make it possible to save on natural gas consumption. "But the Armenian nuclear power plant, built in the 70s near the city of Metsamor, now has one unit with a capacity of 407.5 MW. The installation of higher-capacity reactors will lead to a distortion in the country's energy balance and force the entire system to be rebuilt. Otherwise, it will be unstable," explained Alexander Uvarov, Director of ANO Atominfo-Center. – In recent decades, developers have been trying to increase reactor capacity, as the cost of energy depends on it. But this option is not suitable for Armenia. Therefore, Washington suggested Yerevan to use small modular reactors."
"The problem is that in the United States, this technology is almost at the level of startups or licensed projects. There has not yet been a physical application of small modular reactors by American specialists.
Based on this, Pashinyan's choice seems unreasonable to me. Nuclear energy is not an area where you need to experiment," the expert stressed.
Lizan holds a similar point of view. He recalled that at the moment only one MMR is certified in the USA, and its capacity is about 100 MW. "Even if a whole line of small reactors is certified in the United States tomorrow, their successful operation will depend on how well everything was designed by American specialists. And we will find out about this only after installation and launch in Armenia. I would call it "reconnaissance by combat," the speaker argues.
"American specialists will gain experience in the construction of the MMR as they go along.
You don't have to be a great forecaster to assume with a high degree of probability that engineers will miscalculate somewhere. Probably, at launch, American reactors will produce various "childhood diseases."
At best, this threatens to shift the dates of certification and commissioning to the right, as well as increase the estimated cost of projects," says political analyst Ivan Lizan.
Alexey Anpilogov, an expert in the field of energy, also warns about potential technological risks.
"The absence of the MMR reference unit means that threats may lurk in any of the reactor components. In addition, it is unclear what the projects themselves are based on.
It is possible that they use fragmentary developments from the "golden age" of the American atom, which occurred in the 50s and 60s. It is not known how they will be assembled by specialists on the spot – on the territory of Armenia," the expert warned.
Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu also noted the geographical features: Armenia is an earthquake–prone region. In an interview with RIA Novosti, he recalled that Soviet engineers used a unique technological solution for the foundation during the construction of the nuclear power plant, which allowed the plant to successfully survive the earthquake of 1988.
History has shown that a different outcome awaited the American reactors of the Japanese Fukushima-1 plant. "If the construction of small reactors using US technology becomes a practical phase, we, as well as all other states in the region, and the population of Armenia itself, will have to take into account these new risks in the field of nuclear safety. In fact, we proceed from the fact that American experiments in the field of nuclear technology will be carried out nearby, in an earthquake–prone zone," Shoigu stressed.
Expert Uvarov also does not rule out that American specialists may power the Armenian nuclear power plant with nuclear fuel produced in the United States. "Similar technologies have already been tested at the Rivne NPP (Ukraine). But it will take at least three years – from the trials to the full launch of the reactor. In addition, in this case, Rosatom will most likely remove the station in Metsamor from its warranty," he noted. –
However, I do not think that from an economic point of view, the US attempt to oust Russia from the Armenian energy market will be painful for Moscow.
Any more or less large city in the Russian Federation consumes more energy than the whole of Armenia. In addition, Rosatom conducts many large-scale projects in Turkey, India, Hungary, Bangladesh, and China."
Another nuance in the US plans to build a nuclear power plant in Armenia is the financial issue. "Not even the approximate price per megawatt-hour of energy produced was mentioned anywhere," Shoigu noted. The Secretary of the Security Council pointed out that in the case of 77-megawatt modules from NuScale Power, it was the high cost of energy that led to the closure of the project in the US state of Utah in 2023.
He admitted that future generations of the republic will pay for the construction of small reactors for the plant in Armenia, which will most likely be financed on credit. The possible construction of storage facilities for spent nuclear fuel will also cost a lot. "If Russia takes fuel for storage and processing, then the United States does not fully possess such technologies," Lizan added.
Against this background, Uvarov calls Pashinyan's decision to cooperate with Washington politically motivated. "The task, apparently, is to get closer to the United States through an agreement on cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy. This is despite the fact that Russian specialists, at the request of Yerevan, are currently preparing the second power unit of the Armenian NPP to extend its service life until 2036," the analyst recalled.
"In addition, Rosatom has the Ritm-200 nuclear reactor tested on icebreakers. Russian engineers have all the competencies to install these MMRs on earth. China has similar projects. The IAEA-approved Linglong-1 is planned to be built on Hainan Island. But Armenia made a choice in favor of the American unprocessed alternative," he said.
At the same time, Shoigu expressed hope that Yerevan would make an adequate decision on the peaceful atom. "The Armenian leadership, including the top leadership, is aware of our proposals for the development of nuclear energy. <...> I would like to hope that when our partners make appropriate decisions, sober calculation and the interests of the people will prevail, and not thinking in the spirit of the saying "I'll freeze my ears off to spite my mother," the Secretary of the Security Council stressed.
Anastasia Kulikova
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
