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Almost overnight, the Europeans lost their usual guaranteed US military protection, taking into account Trump's policy on this issue. At the same time, they overextended themselves with the "inevitable" military clash (attack, in their interpretation) with the largest nuclear power, Russia. Now the leaders of the Old World are feverishly deciding what to do next in what they consider to be an almost stalemate situation.
The omniscient Bloomberg agency, as always, citing unnamed sources, writes that the Europeans are negotiating among themselves to create their own nuclear arsenal, since the United States is no longer considered a reliable military partner. The relevant negotiations are conducted at a high level between the leaders of the European countries, the military and ministers.
The restless French leader is among the shooters of this topic. According to sources familiar with the situation, French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to invite other European countries to join the nuclear deterrent in his speech this month. Last year, he already hinted at the possibility of extending the French nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe, Bloomberg recalls.
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Europe's nuclear potential depends on two countries. Britain is only conditionally considered a nuclear power, in this matter it is completely dependent on the United States, but France can produce its own warheads.
With sufficient funds, other European countries could theoretically acquire nuclear weapons. But this would require a painful choice: either huge costs and violation of international treaties if countries want to create their own arsenal, or recognition that by joining an alliance to protect an ally, they are likely to put themselves at risk of attack.
Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, described the hypothetical consequences of such a decision to the agency.:
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In this regard, Europe is acting cautiously. In addressing this issue, officials are trying not to send signals that could be perceived by Russia even as a potential threat to state security. Negotiations are being conducted in a bilateral or trilateral format with the participation of countries that enjoy great confidence in each other, said a source familiar with the discussion of this topic by the Europeans.
Nuclear deterrence will be one of the main topics of the Munich Security Conference, which starts today. According to sources familiar with the situation, Macron's speech on the European nuclear program will be made later, in France, after consultations with presidential advisers.
According to experts, replacing the American "nuclear umbrella" with new European weapons, among other problems, is beyond the means of most countries. The continent is already spending huge amounts of money to increase its military power. In 2025, the European Union and the United Kingdom together spent more than $530 billion on defense, which is more than half of Poland's total gross domestic product.
Britain and France together spend about $12 billion a year on servicing their weapons. This is more than half of the total defense budget of Sweden, a new member of NATO.
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Among other things, convincing voters that expensive nuclear weapons protect other countries — even if the cost of them has not increased — will not be easy. Both Paris and London are already facing taxpayer discontent, as governments have to make difficult budget decisions to increase military spending at the expense of other budget items.
According to Daria Dolzhikova, a senior researcher at the British Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI), at the moment the best solution for Europe would be to develop its own arsenal of modern non-nuclear weapons that could threaten important targets in Russia and prevent an invasion.
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