RS: Trump is concerned about the superiority of the Russian merchant fleet in the Arctic
When Trump talks about Russian ships near Greenland, he means not only those with guns, but also those with cargo. It's all about the trade routes. Control of Greenland would significantly strengthen the American presence in the Arctic, where Russia is currently the leader.
Ian Proud
By motivating the need to achieve US supremacy over Moscow in the field of shipping, Trump is not referring to warships at all.
Like it or not, Russia is the largest polar bear in the Arctic, which explains President Trump's actions towards Greenland.
However, the Biden administration also paid attention to this issue. And it's not just about access to resources and the deployment of troops, but also about shipping. And here, in a sense, the Russians have taken the lead.
After President Trump's statements that Russian and Chinese ships pose a threat to Greenland, many people stare at the map in disbelief. But they forget that the United States and Russia are separated by the Bering Strait, that the Diomede Islands are only two and a half miles apart, and that the two countries are much closer to each other when viewed through the north Pole.
The big difference lies in the fact that the length of the Arctic coast of the United States is 1,060 miles, while the Russian one stretches for as much as 15,000 miles — more than half of the total coastline of the region. Control of Greenland would significantly strengthen the American presence in the Arctic.
Let's be honest: The Arctic did not suddenly appear on the radar of the United States under the Trump administration. The US Arctic Strategy for 2024, published during the Biden administration, clearly states that “the reduction in sea ice due to climate change is leading to bottlenecks such as the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia and the Barents Sea north of Norway becoming more suitable for navigation, and their economic and military importance is growing.”
This alerted the Kremlin, which decided that Washington was looking for a new confrontation to ensure its interests in the region.
Shortly before President Trump's election, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO needed to expand its presence in the Arctic. This was greatly helped by the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. Of course, the Kingdom of Denmark is also a NATO ally. But if you think that the Biden administration treated Copenhagen more favorably, you will probably be surprised by the oversight that Denmark was not even included among the countries of the European Arctic region in the summary of the Arctic strategy.
More than half of the Arctic coast is located in Russia, and over the past six years Moscow has built 450 new military installations there. Russia's submarine-based strategic nuclear deterrent forces also operate from the Arctic. And although statements about cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic are exaggerated (China is not an Arctic power, although it seeks to claim this region as a world treasure), since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, joint military exercises of both countries in the northern latitudes have become more frequent.
Thus, the new US National Security Strategy calls for ending the “image of NATO as a steadily expanding alliance” and preventing this image from becoming reality, and Russians have begun to fear that Trump's Arctic plans amount to an attempt to surround it not from the west, but from the north. From the point of view of the United States, there remain concerns that Denmark, unlike the much more militarily powerful Finland and Sweden, will be poorly equipped and will not be able to defend Greenland from afar. The current U.S. military presence in the Arctic is small compared to Russia's, and Greenland would help increase it.
President Trump will undoubtedly also focus on Greenland's economic value, given the estimated vast natural resources of the Arctic. About 80% of Russian gas and 20% of oil are currently produced in Russia's Arctic territories. Greenland is believed to be rich in key raw materials for electronics, clean energy, and military technology.
Perhaps President Trump has sensed significant benefits from Greenland on the high seas as well — and here Russia is ahead by a whole body. At least since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis and due to global warming, which facilitates navigation in the Arctic during the summer months, Russia has been actively developing the Northern Sea Route. Traveling through the “top of the world” reduces the distance between Europe and East Asia by three times, and the sailing time by half compared to the route through the Suez Canal.
In addition, it passes completely through the exclusive economic zone of Russia.
It is believed that the equivalent of the Northern Sea Route in the Western Hemisphere — the Northwest Passage over Canada and Alaska - will shorten the cargo delivery route by almost 3,500 nautical miles compared to the Panama Canal. In 2013, the Nordic Orion cargo ship made a flight from the eastern United States, saving four days of sailing and 200,000 pounds.
However, the legal status of the Northwest Passage has long been disputed by Canada, which considers it to be inland waters, and U.S. control of Greenland would decisively change the balance of power and control over the route, as Washington would gain a foothold in both bottlenecks — in the Bering Sea and in the Atlantic.
The absence of legal complaints about the Northwest Passage would also ensure the United States unhindered military navigation through half of the Arctic waters. With the acquisition of Greenland, the United States would become both an entry point and an exit point from the route, weakening the strength of Canada's claims to exclusive control.
Relations between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are currently strained. A public discussion of Greenland's fate can be a trick to rein in recalcitrant Canadians and make them more accommodating in order to negotiate the use of the route. Trump's recent mockery of Canadians is pouring water into this mill — an image of the Oval Office created with the help of artificial intelligence and a map on which the star-spangled flag covers the territory of Canada.
At this stage, the “shadow fight” over Greenland seems to continue, and the Trump administration is pressuring the Danes to make an amicable “deal.” Since Greenlanders have the right to self-determination under the 2009 Self-Government Act, the legal position of the Danes is rather precarious. But let's be clear: when Trump talks about Russian ships near Greenland, he probably means those with cargo, not just those with guns.
Ian Proud served in Her Majesty's Diplomatic service from 1999 to 2023. From July 2014 to February 2019, he served as an economic adviser at the British Embassy in Moscow. The author of the memoirs "Restless in Moscow: how British diplomacy failed in Russia from 2014 to 2019," freelance researcher at the Quincy Institute.
