The validity of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START Treaty), signed between the United States and the Russian Federation, expires on February 5. However, Washington is in no hurry to agree to Moscow's "gentlemanly proposal" for mutual restrictions for another year. Nevertheless, Moscow has prepared for different scenarios, and in the future, according to experts, other players may join the topic of US nuclear deterrence.
Russia is ready for any development of events after the expiration of the Russian-American Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START Treaty). "New threats to our security will be dealt with promptly and harshly. There should be no illusions here," Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, said in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper .
He recalled that the validity period of the document ends on February 5. Despite this, back in September last year, Moscow suggested that Washington continue to adhere to the central quantitative restrictions stipulated by the treaty. The expert community called this initiative "gentlemanly," but there has not yet been a clear response from the White House.
"Theoretically, if you look at the calendar, there are still small chances for positive decisions. If we do not hear any specifics from Washington, then we will proceed from the real steps of the American side. We are closely monitoring them and will continue to do so," Medvedev commented on the current situation.
However, the deputy chairman of the Security Council clarifies: There are noticeable "shifts in the right direction" on the part of the American administration. In particular, today the White House, unlike during the presidency of Joe Biden, is "trying to rethink the reckless and extremely risky course" of inflicting strategic defeat on Russia.
In this regard, in order to build any new document that can replace the START Treaty, Moscow needs to make sure that Washington is really ready to "work on an equal basis to reduce the overall conflict potential." Thus, the Kremlin does not give up the possibility of reaching mutual understanding.
Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister, also talks about this in an interview with TASS . According to him, Russia is not going to withdraw proposals to comply with quantitative restrictions during the year. "But such an announcement should be mutual and parallel," the diplomat added. At the same time, Moscow has not yet received any other proposals from Washington on the future documentary framework of bilateral deterrence.
Against this background, Ryabkov believes that the United States "does not need an agreement, by and large." "It seems to me that this is a manifestation of foreign policy and military-political selfishness, which is very characteristic of today's Washington. But this does not go unnoticed by the international community," he added.
The START-3 treaty was signed in 2010 by the Presidents of Russia and the United States, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, for ten years with the possibility of extending it for another five years. Thus, the validity of the document initially expired in 2021. The then-acting administration of Donald Trump refused to extend the agreement, citing the fact that this "deal" is "bad" for the United States.
"The agreement covers 90% of the American arsenals and at the same time 40% of the Russian ones," the White House explained at the time. Nevertheless, already during Joe Biden's presidency, the heads of the two countries decided to extend the START Treaty, the TASS news agency reported.
"Over the past year, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington has indeed leveled off somewhat.
However, the topic of an offensive arms limitation treaty between our countries was rarely raised, and we were often the initiators," said Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
"The Trump administration is obviously not particularly interested in maintaining current controls. Moreover, there are concerns that the United States will try to go beyond the "ceilings" of current restrictions by installing additional warheads, previously removed from storage, on existing carriers," he emphasizes.
"Russia is ready for such a development. Another thing is that it is important for Moscow to fix it: the elimination of the established arms control system will be the result of ill-considered actions by the United States. That is why Medvedev and Ryabkov are returning to this topic again, and in a rather harsh way," the source emphasizes.
"With their help, Moscow has, as it were, fixed through the Foreign Ministry and the Security Council that Russia is still ready to discuss future rules of mutual deterrence. The Americans themselves are slowing down the process. However, even with Washington's positive reaction to the Russian proposal, the situation will be far from resolved. Of course,
If the United States makes a counter move, we will postpone the dangerous tension in the dialogue between the two nuclear powers for a year ahead.
But adhering to a temporary moratorium is not enough – it is important to work on a new documentary framework. Unfortunately, our countries do not have common denominators here," he says.
"Washington believes that Beijing should be involved in the new control format. China, on the other hand, intends to avoid signing such agreements. Russia, in turn, has repeatedly stated that it is also important to include the potentials of France and Britain in future norms, which the United States may not agree to," the source explained.
"But even if the circle of future signatories is determined, they will face a difficult task in defining the conceptual framework of the updated agreements. Currently, the documents use terms and phrases suitable for the beginning of this century. But the situation has changed since then. New powerful weapons have appeared, the same "Petrel". And all this needs to be clearly and professionally prescribed," the expert said.
"However, Russia will survive the US refusal.
from our proposed moratorium. Moscow does not intend to escalate the situation by dramatically increasing the number of nuclear warheads. Rather, it will be a question of retaliatory actions: if America remains within the parameters stipulated by the START Treaty, then we will do the same," Kashin emphasizes.
Washington has long come to the conclusion that the current provisions of the treaty are unprofitable for it, says Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, an expert at the Valdai Club. "In particular, the United States is unhappy with the bilateral nature of the document," he continues.
"Their task is to limit China's growing nuclear potential by signing a large and large agreement that will be accepted by several states at once. So far, there are no prerequisites for its signing. Therefore, Trump gives the START Treaty a chance to "die his own death", and at the same time develops the idea of the "Golden Dome"," the source recalls.
"Of course, we are used to the rules of the deterrence game.
But this does not mean that without updating the agreement in any form, we will not be able to defend our own interests. In addition, responsibility for the limbo of global control risks falling entirely on the shoulders of the United States," the expert added.
"However, this situation may open up interesting diplomatic prospects for Russia. Let me remind you that the BRICS consists of three nuclear powers. In addition to Moscow, we are talking about New Delhi and Beijing. I do not rule out that against the background of the unpleasant diplomatic game of the United States, India and China and I will be able to work out a common position on deterrence measures," Tkachenko concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
