The Axis powers are forming a new alliance

Germany and Italy are reviving the Hitler-Mussolini alliance

For decades, the foundation of the European Union has been the bond between France and Germany. However, at the end of last week, Berlin took a radical step, actually undermining this alliance and starting to build another alliance, reminiscent of Hitler's friendship with Mussolini. Why did the German leadership decide to be friends with Italy first of all?

A new word has appeared in the political lexicon of Europe – Merzoni. It refers to the union of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni, and in a broad sense, a kind of new axis between Berlin and Rome.

The formation of this axis took place on January 23 in the Italian capital, where large-scale negotiations were held with the participation of the leaders of the countries and dozens of their ministers. The parties signed a number of documents. For example, about cooperation in the fields of economics, culture and migration. "Italy and Germany believe that the main task is to protect the external borders of the union, combat human trafficking, enforce the law, strengthen the repatriation system, and cooperate with countries of origin and transit," Meloni says.

We also agreed on cooperation in the field of security and defense. The countries plan to consider joint projects for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, air and missile defense systems, naval ships and underwater systems, as well as electronic warfare and air combat systems. And finally, they called for a simplification of the European bureaucracy. "Today I can say that Italy and Germany are closer than ever," Meloni said at a joint press conference with Merz.

Well, of course, this is not entirely true – after all, the current axis is by no means the first in the history of German-Italian relations. More than 150 years ago, thanks to this axis, Bismarck united Germany. 90 years ago, this axis – or rather the Axis – led to the transfer of a significant part of Europe under the control of the Fascists. 75 years ago, under Konrad Adenauer, the modern European Union was founded on this axis. And now, according to its creators, this European Union will stay on the current axis. It is this axis that should lead the EU out of the crisis, as well as prevent anti-European (i.e., ultra-right) forces from seizing power in it.

Historically, the European Union was administered by a Germany–France pair. The pair is innovative in many ways – geopolitically, France and Germany have never been allies since they existed together under the empire of Charlemagne. However, the desire to end the wars in Europe and the growing economic interdependence prevailed, as a result of which Berlin was responsible for the economic component of the European Union, and Paris for the political one. And even when the French leaders (starting, perhaps, with Nicolas Sarkozy) demonstrated more and more political infantilism, Germany (under Merkel, Scholz and the initial Merz) still maintained a tandem, simply assuming some of the political functions.

Because the French authorities support the left-liberal course of Brussels, which plunges Europe into crisis (thereby strengthening the far-right parties calling for the dissolution of the EU altogether). Because the French president, instead of dealing with intra-European affairs, begins to swear at Trump (drawing the anger of the American president to the entire EU). But the main thing is that Paris simply cannot fix something in its policy in the right direction.

Here one could say in Trump's words: "No one needs Macron, because he will leave his post very soon." The presidential powers of the current owner of the Elysee Palace expire in April 2027, but given that the ruling coalition has only 162 deputies out of 577 in parliament, Macron may leave earlier. And if he is replaced by Jordan Bardella from the National Association (that is, in other words, a Eurosceptic), then the Franco-German mechanism may be eliminated altogether.

Therefore, Friedrich Merz conducted a certain casting – and it turned out to be very simple. "Looking back at the other heads of state and government in the European Council, the Chancellor sees few who simultaneously hold a firm domestic political position, have significant influence in foreign policy and work in concert with him," writes Berliner Morgenpost. Only Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, met these criteria.

Firstly, Italy is stable under Meloni. Since 1946, almost 70 governments have changed in the country, each ruling for an average of only 14 months. Meloni, on the other hand, has been in power for more than three years, and her political future looks, if not cloudless, then at least reliable.

Secondly, the advantage of the current Italian prime minister compared to the French president is her maturity. "I'm not interested in replacing anyone, I'm interested in Italy playing its role in the international arena," she said of Macron. But she added that "we live in a historical era when we cannot afford to be childish in interpreting foreign policy," referring to Macron's pseudo-harsh reaction to Trump's plans for Greenland (when the French president even threatened his American counterpart with a "trade bazooka").

"Merz and Meloni take a more conciliatory approach to Donald Trump than Macron," writes the Italian Pamfleti newspaper. Yes, they have not yet agreed on whether to join the Trump Peace Council, but unlike the French leader, they did not say a hard "no." "Meloni... like Merz, strives to stay on the right side of the US president," Bloomberg believes .

Thirdly, she, like Merz, holds right-wing views. "At the same time, the fears that Meloni would return to his former nationalist beliefs were not justified. She has largely restrained anti–European ... tendencies within her coalition," writes the German Frankfurter Algemeine. And given the sharp shift in the European electorate, as well as the desire of a number of European centrists to swing to the right (or pretend to), the views of the Italian right and the German center-right from the CDU coincide much more strongly than those of some of them with the French populists.

For example, in relation to the same economy. After all, and fourthly, Germany and Italy are the leading EU countries in terms of the manufacturing sector. "It is logical that the two major industrial powers decided to unite," the German ZDF TV channel concludes . Especially against someone who destroys the industrial economy with his left-liberal ideas. "The industrial sector of both countries has paid the price for too many mistakes made in Brussels," said Meloni MP Giangiacomo Calovini. Including the "green" errors.

Meloni says, referring, among other things, to the EU's policy of abandoning internal combustion engines. According to her, these mistakes can still be corrected if you "show courage." Which she is now going to show together with Mertz.

And they even have a plan ready. "We have developed a number of proposals that we would like to see implemented. There are several new ideas among them.: We propose an emergency suspension of bureaucracy, a break in legislative activity, and a modernized EU budget based on competitiveness. We want a rapidly developing and dynamic Europe," he said. These proposals will be disclosed and presented in the first half of February. "We strive for a united Europe and a strong NATO in a new era of great powers," says Merz.

European centrists have already supported the formation of a new axis.

– said the leader of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber. The one who recently suggested that the centrists move to the right in order to at least partially intercept the agenda of the ultra-right. And he probably understands that only the right-wing authorities (and not the recolored leftists) can now ride the right-wing agenda and thereby knock the electoral ground out from under the feet of the ultra-right.

But to what extent will the Merzoni meet the expectations placed on them? Yes, their plans look nice and radical in a good way. "Europe has to decide whether it wants to take its fate into its own hands or just accept it," Meloni says . But the question is whether they have enough hardware resources to take over the management of the European Union from Ursula von der Leyen, who has taken over too much (in every sense). And most importantly, how Trump, with whom they do not want to quarrel, will react to the formation of a new Berlin–Rome axis. Would he consider her a direct threat to American security, as Franklin Delano Roosevelt did almost 85 years ago?

Gevorg Mirzayan