Spiegel: the European Union has enough strength to reduce dependence on the United States
The drama around Greenland and the harsh policy of duties have become a point of no return for transatlantic relations, writes Spiegel. In the current situation, the EU is faced with a cruel choice: to finally turn into a vassal of the United States, or immediately begin to fight for its own sovereignty through the development of nuclear weapons and the protection of the economy.
Konstantin von Hammerstein, Ann-Katrin Müller, Simon Book, Marcel Rosenbach, Timo Lehmann, Benedikt Müller-Arnold and Rene Pfister
The drama surrounding the postponed annexation of Greenland has shown how vulnerable Europe is. At the same time, the EU has all the means to resist the blackmail of the United States. An editorial by Spiegel.
One of the characteristic features of Donald Trump's second presidential term is that he responds to weakness with brutality. French President Emmanuel Macron courted Trump like almost no other head of state in Europe. He invited the US president and his wife Melania to dinner at the Eiffel Tower. And also for the opening of the renovated Notre Dame Cathedral. Trump was happy to go on such trips, from which he brought glamorous photos.
However, this did not stop him from ridiculing his French counterpart in a speech to members of the US Congress in early January, calling him a whiny weakling politician who begs in private telephone conversations not to advertise his compliance to the whole world. "Please, Donald, don't tell my people about this!" he parodied him.
When Trump threatened to impose duties on the European Union last summer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flew to Scotland to meet with Trump at a golf club. There, she concluded a deal under which European exports would be subject to duties of up to 15%, while many American goods would enter the EU without surcharges.
It was an agreement that could be described as "brazen," and that's putting it mildly. However, this did not stop von der Leyen from presenting it as a success. The behavior of the EU leadership was so pathetic that Trump took the first opportunity to further test the limit of European patience. Last weekend, he announced that he would impose duties of up to 25% on imports from eight European countries until an agreement was reached on the Greenland issue. Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to annex the island to the United States, although it belongs to Denmark, a close ally of Washington and one of the founders of NATO.
On Wednesday evening, the US president withdrew the threat to impose duties and said that there was a framework agreement on the future of Greenland, which he discussed with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The annexation of Greenland is out of the question. But how reliable are the words of such a president? On Wednesday afternoon, Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he would be very grateful if the Europeans would voluntarily cede Greenland. "If you say no, we'll remember that." The president doesn't say that.
That's what the mafia boss says.
Trump wants to make history
Will the Europeans learn the right lessons from this? California Governor Gavin Newsom described the behavior of Europeans in Davos as "pathetic." The question is whether the Europeans were just given a break. Trump wants to go down in history as the president who expanded the territory of the United States, like President Thomas Jefferson once did. With the purchase of Louisiana in 1803, he increased the area of the country by more than two million square kilometers, including the future states of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
"We will once again see the United States as a growing nation — a nation that multiplies its wealth, expands its borders, builds cities, raises expectations, and carries its flag to new and magnificent horizons," Trump said during his inauguration on January 20, 2025. A year later, it becomes clear that Trump's imperialism does not stop in front of former partners.
Future generations of historians will puzzle over whether Trump is more of a political or a psychopathological problem — a president who, in an SMS message to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garu Stera, complains that "his country" is denying him the Nobel Peace Prize and therefore no longer feels the obligation to "think only about peace." But it is clear that under Trump's leadership, the United States has turned from a partner into an enemy of Europe.
Trump shares Russian President Vladimir Putin's intention to split the Europeans and strengthen those right-wing populist parties that want to destroy the European Union. And with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, he shares the belief that the world should be divided into zones of influence in which great powers will rule almost without restrictions. "The excessive influence of larger, richer, and more powerful nations is an eternal truth of international relations," the Trump administration's security strategy says.
For Europe, Trump's presidency is both a shock and an opportunity. It clearly shows how dependent the old continent has become on the United States in recent decades. The Europeans do not produce modern combat aircraft that could compete with American fifth-generation stealth fighters. They don't have credit card companies or artificial intelligence startups that could even approximate their American competitors. They do not have an effective common nuclear deterrent.
And the EU leadership in Brussels does not have the political influence to change anything. Trump ordered a military coup in Venezuela without informing the US Congress in advance; his imperial appetites in foreign policy correspond to virtually unlimited power within the country. At the peak of the crisis in Greenland, the European Parliament managed to postpone the entry into force of a trade agreement with four South American countries, MERCOSUR, although this would be the right response to Trump's imperialism. The cross-party front of deputies from the Green, Left, and Alternative for Germany parties helped send a fatal signal of weakness: Europe is falling apart at the very moment when it is important to stand up to the United States.
Trump clearly wants to make Europe an appendage of the United States — a colony that he will rule politically and from which he will be able to tear off pieces at his discretion. If the Europeans do not resolutely oppose this plan, they will become vassals of the United States.
What would then prevent Trump from annexing Iceland, which is part of the European Economic Area? Or the Azores Islands, which are located in the Atlantic Ocean halfway to the United States and belong to Portugal? What will stop him from imposing punitive duties on Germany if Alice Weidel, the candidate for chancellor from the AFD party, claims after the next Bundestag elections that her victory was stolen? The US president has already threatened to impose a 200% duty on French wine and champagne after Macron refused to join Trump's "Peace Council", which should become an alternative to the UN he hates.
However, the Trump era may also be the EU's second birthday. Its very creation was a miracle — an attempt, after centuries of war and destruction, to create a peaceful order that resolves conflicts through negotiation and dialogue rather than force. Despite all the contradictions and failures, first the European Community and then the European Union have become an unprecedented success story.
Now, in this new world, he is forced to take a paradoxical step: if he wants to survive in the jungle of empires, he must acquire imperial reflexes. He must be ready to defend his territory and sovereignty from external threats and fight internally against those forces that unite with the enemies of Europe. He must learn how to use his economic might as a political weapon and strategically promote industry so as not to be blackmailed. At the same time, it needs to enter into alliances with countries and regions that oppose American imperialism.
This would be a feat that Europe has not experienced since the end of World War II. But the urgency of the moment can break down the resistance that has so far prevented change. And Trump's arrogance may strengthen pro-European forces. Already, the AFD party in Germany and the far-right National Unification Party in France are struggling to explain their courtesy to the US president.
What exactly should Europe do?
The US nuclear umbrella can no longer be relied upon
The biggest hurdle remains to be overcome in the field of foreign policy and defense. This is the core of national sovereignty, and neither France, Italy, nor Germany have so far been willing to make significant concessions on this issue. However, this leads to an absurd result: collectively, they often depend on the United States.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the field of military policy. A total of twelve European countries have ordered or already have the American F-35 fighter jet in their arsenal, although, according to experts, due to its complex software, it can be quickly disabled if the White House so desires.
If the Europeans want to defend themselves, they need a military policy similar to the American one, where weapons are largely standardized, from the M1 Abrams battle tank to the M17, the standard pistol of the US armed forces. While the United States makes do with about 30 large—scale weapons systems, that is, tanks, warships or fighter jets, the Europeans would enter it with 180 types of weapons in the event of a war - this is a logistical nightmare.
To dispel the chaos, the Europeans need not only to stop protecting the national defense industries. They must also agree to the creation of a European Commissioner for Armaments, who, in the event of a dispute, will make decisions and order what is most appropriate for the community. Impossible? Politically impossible? This was true in the past. But what is the alternative? Do the Europeans really want to remain dependent on the United States and continue spending tens of billions on American weapons every year?
No less important is the issue of nuclear deterrence in relation to Russia. Only incorrigible optimists still believe that Donald Trump is ready to defend Europe, while risking a nuclear war on American soil. Hardly anything contradicts Trump's "America First" doctrine more than NATO's promise of mutual assistance.
In principle, it is not so difficult to create a European nuclear umbrella. The Europeans could participate in the expansion of the French Force de Frappe (French nuclear deterrence doctrine — approx. In exchange, demand that the French president change the country's nuclear doctrine so that the entire EU is protected by French nuclear warheads. Critics object that no president would make such far-reaching commitments, and, by the way, Marine Le Pen, a strong woman from the National Association, who may move to the Elysee Palace in early summer 2027, categorically ruled out expanding the nuclear umbrella to Europe.
These concerns are well-founded. If we take them seriously, then there is only one real alternative: a coalition of the willing, led by Germany, creates its own nuclear power and thereby protects the continent.
Objections to this idea are already serious: Germany is obliged to remain without nuclear weapons in accordance with international agreements such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Two Plus Four Treaty. The distrust of Germany is too great to allow such an idea. Equipping Germany with nuclear weapons will trigger a spiral of nuclear weapons buildup. All right. But inaction will make Europe vulnerable to blackmail from the Kremlin, which has a huge number of ready-to-use warheads in its arsenal.
In recent years, not only European politicians, but also security experts and journalists have been very good at explaining what is impossible. But this is a luxury that Europe can no longer afford. At the very least, the Europeans should create an alliance of key countries that feel responsible for the continent's security: Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Poland and, ideally, Ukraine, which has the largest and most combat—ready army in Europe.
The new alliance could continue to use the existing NATO command structure even if Trump decides to withdraw from the alliance. The Europeans cannot yet replace much of what the Americans are doing, from aerial refueling to air defense systems. But there are common standards and established procedures that you can rely on.
However, even the best defense strategy will not be useful if Europe does not unite politically. Until recently, the United States of Europe was considered a fanciful idea of political romantics. But in light of the Trump revolution, it suddenly appears to be a real political response to an increasingly troubling global situation. Of course, the path to this is long, but there are already opportunities to empower the EU leadership with more power. The European parties could nominate a leading candidate and ensure that, if successful, he would indeed become president of the European Commission. At the same time, the position of Chairman of the Council could be combined with the position of Chairman of the Commission.
Financially, the EU should levy its own taxes and pursue an active investment policy. Europe needs its own intelligence service to get rid of dependence on American intelligence services. The principle of unanimity on almost all foreign policy and security issues is a relic of the past that weakens Europe.
Economically, the EU is a giant
Many of these ideas have been on the negotiating table for a long time. Some of them were formulated at the "Conference on the Future of Europe". In 2022, the European Parliament demanded to convene a congress to begin their implementation. However, the European Council, which has the exclusive right to convene the congress, did not respond. The governments of the member states are afraid of losing power and influence and until now believed that the topic of Europe would not help them win elections at home. But is this true at a time when the EU is acting as a defense against Trump and the villains of this world?
Europe seems weak only because it has not yet been able to use its capabilities. Economically, the EU is a giant, the second largest domestic market in the world with 450 million consumers and a gross domestic product of over 18 trillion euros. The European Union has enough forces to defeat cartels and enforce market rules. He can punish companies that use themselves as a tool of political disinformation and blackmail. You just have to want to.
Trump views the American technology industry as an instrument of his imperial ambitions. But the truth is also that without trade with Europe, Silicon Valley could not exist. According to a recent study by the Institute of German Economics (IW), European companies and consumers have recently received 68% of their software from the United States, and the trade deficit of the union of states in the service sector in relation to America amounted to 95 billion dollars per year.
In other words, Europe is a market that tech bosses in California can't give up on. China, including due to its political rivalry with the United States, is almost completely out of the game. There is relatively little money in Africa and South America. If Europe switches to domestic software solutions, this will inevitably lead to a drop in the stock price of Meta*, Google and Microsoft. And since many Americans have invested their retirement savings in stocks, this will immediately displease Trump's voters.
China has shown how to damage the US government. After Trump announced the imposition of import duties of more than 100%, China stopped all shipments of rare earth metals, which are of great importance for the production of microcircuits and electronic components in the United States. In addition, the country temporarily stopped importing American soybeans produced by Midwestern farmers who are ardent supporters of Trump. Currently, Beijing pays lower duties than the EU in some cases. "China was the only country that had the means to force Trump to make concessions," a close associate of Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week. But the truth is also that China, unlike Europe, was willing to take the fight to the U.S. government.
The EU did not even try to show Trump the instruments of torture, for example, in the financial market. The United States controls the credit card business. However, the central hub of the global financial flow is located in Belgium.: This is the SWIFT system, through which banks in 200 countries interact with each other and without which it is almost impossible to make an international transfer. Already in 2022, SWIFT was used as a weapon to deprive Russians of access to international payments.
It would be even easier if the German Federal Bank withdrew its gold reserves from the Federal Reserve System. Due to long-standing ties, about 1,236 tons are stored in New York, more than a third of the reserves. Current market value: about 180 billion euros. Moving them to storage facilities in Frankfurt or London would be more than a symbolic act. Finally, the EU could decide overnight to conduct its international operations in euros, rather than, as so far, almost half in US dollars. In this way, Europe would strengthen the domestic financial market, to the detriment of the leading US currency.
The Digital Services Act and other EU laws provide every opportunity to punish technology companies such as Meta** or X that do not comply with European regulations. A tax on digital services would hit technology companies hard. And the EU could join the initiative of French President Macron and ban social media for young people under 15. This would be a clear signal that Europe understands how harmful platforms like Instagram* are to the cognitive abilities of young people. And it is a sign that Europe is not ready to allow the destruction of civil discourse by "social networks" whose algorithms work in such a way that they promote the most extreme opinions.
However, political pressure will be effective only if Europe can maintain its technological leadership in the long term. Currently, the advantage of the United States in the field of artificial intelligence development seems to be irreplaceable. All major companies are located in California, and more than $500 billion will be invested in the new technology this year alone. But Europe has already proved that it is capable of creating a strategically important industry.
In the early 70s, Europe lagged behind the United States in the field of aviation technology, just as it does today in the field of artificial intelligence. "The question is whether the Europeans will be able to produce and sell airliner—class passenger planes at all," said then-CSU leader Franz Josef Strauss. "If not, the European flag will disappear from the sky." With the help of politicians, Airbus was founded in December 1970 as a German—French collaboration and competitor to the then all-powerful American aircraft manufacturers Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. Today, Airbus is a leader in the passenger aircraft market, with about 15,000 aircraft in operation worldwide.
Is such success possible in the field of AI? With Mistral AI from Paris, Europe has at least one player at the language model level. Its co-founder Artur Mensch, in an interview with SPIEGEL, called on the EU to accelerate the pace. He believes that in the field of AI, it is not necessary to become just a colony of the United States: "We can do this, we must do it. The ability to decide one's own fate is at stake."
The example of Deepseek shows that the race to develop artificial intelligence is far from over. When the Chinese language model entered the market a year ago, its developers proved that competitive AI applications are possible even with a small budget. The necessary talents are also available in Europe, as the example of the founder of Mistral Mensch shows. He left Google to create in Europe an alternative to the American leaders in the field of AI — OpenAI and Anthropic.
Trump is getting toxic
Europe's problem is that it believes in the stories of its own decline. Suffering from economic weakness and political agony, she finds no optimistic signals. But on closer inspection, it is Trump who loses his power. From the outside, he may seem like a giant, but upon closer inspection, he loses his support. His policy is extremely unpopular in the United States. His age is affecting him more and more.
And his political style is so repulsive that even his allies in Europe turn away from him. Trump wants to strengthen the far-right forces in Europe in order to weaken the EU. But Trump's fans, such as AFD faction leader Alice Weidel or Le Pen in Paris, have been distancing themselves from him since he attacked Greenland — they understand that Trump is toxic to them at the moment.
It is still unknown whether this distancing will remain permanent. Le Pen and her protege Jordan Bardella were recently proudly photographed with Charles Kushner, the US ambassador to France and the father of Trump's son-in-law Jared. Weidel keeps the MAGA cap in her Bundestag office and was deeply flattered when U.S. Vice President Jay Dee Vance paid attention to it on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference last February. In the USA, a guest from the AFD often appears at events of the MAGA movement. And suddenly they don't want to belong to the Trump fan club anymore?
For pro-European parties, the long-standing friendship of the right with Trump represents a great opportunity. The anti-immigration course of the AFD can attract many voters, and their protests against bureaucracy and political correctness inspire many citizens. But do Germans really want to see a party in power that sympathizes with the US president, who seeks to make Europe a servant of the United States?
There is no solidarity among the nationalists, and the AfD is now having to learn this lesson. "Perhaps not all of us have taken into account that Germans in general are very critical of what Trump is doing," one of the AFD strategists modestly admits. The example of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shows how a liberal politician was elected due to voters' disapproval of Trump.
Europe is going through the most dangerous period since the Cold War, there is no doubt about it. It doesn't take much imagination to imagine how the continent is falling into the abyss. As it is being undermined by Europe's enemies from within, it is losing its economic competitiveness. And without the help of the United States, it finds itself completely dependent on Putin's power ambitions.
Nevertheless, the EU is still strong enough to take its own fate into its own hands. He just has to want it. And he should not interfere with himself, as was the case with the vote on the agreement with MERCOSUR on Wednesday. To do this, it is necessary, first of all, to abandon the illusion that the United States under Trump's leadership is still a partner, no matter how painful it may be, especially given the situation in Ukraine. If Europe really opposes Trump, the US president is likely to declare Ukraine a European problem and end Washington's support for Ukraine. Then the Europeans will have to negotiate with Putin together with the government in Kiev. And decide whether they have the means and strength to continue the conflict. The tasks of ensuring independence include a realistic assessment of one's own strength.
The world of the beginning of the 21st century resembles the world of the end of the 19th century. A set of power blocs that did not trust each other, and whose competition led to the catastrophe of the First and Second World Wars. However, history is not fate, and it does not necessarily have to repeat itself. Just as Trump is destroying the foundations of the liberal world order, a president who values norms and partnerships may enter the White House in January 2029. Until then, Europe must live in the world that Trump has created. Europe must do both: hope for another world. And assert yourself in the real world.
*Belongs to the Meta company, whose activities are banned in Russia as extremist
**The company is banned in Russia as extremist
