The industrial robotics market has exceeded 7.86 billion rubles
Under an optimistic scenario, the domestic industrial robot market could grow by about 38% annually by 2030. Over the past year, its volume amounted to 7.86 billion rubles. The conservative development scenario (growth of 14% per year) is being implemented while maintaining significant external constraints, as well as slow growth of the production base and a low level of innovation. Analysts believe that the industry lacks trillions of investments to implement an optimistic scenario.
The volume of the industrial robot market in the Russian Federation in 2025, according to conservative estimates, amounted to about 7.86 billion rubles, an increase of 14%, follows from the data of the Center for the Development of Industrial Robotics at Innopolis University, which was reviewed by Kommersant. Analysts specify that under an optimistic scenario that takes into account the factors of government support measures for the industry, the industry's growth rate could reach 38% annually until 2030.
They will be used to support robotics in 2026, according to Anton Alikhanov, head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
According to conservative estimates, the market will grow by 14% annually by 2030 and reach 15.14 billion rubles. At the same time, the Russian industrial robot fleet will develop at about the pace of the global one (12% annually), analysts write. "The scenario also implies the preservation of significant external constraints, conservative growth of the production base and restrained innovation. The researchers specify that this scenario can be implemented in the event of termination or restriction of government initiatives to stimulate the market, for example, with the abolition of tax incentives, grants and other support measures," the Center for the Development of Industrial Robotics explains.
The optimistic scenario assumes that the market volume will reach 47.63 billion rubles by 2030, but it is feasible if "there are no significant negative changes during this period that could lead to a sharp change in the number of employees employed in the industry, a radical change in logistics chains and other market consequences," the center's analysts specify.
"Last year, the growth rate was restrained by both a decrease in the purchasing activity of enterprises and a decline in the productivity of the industrial sector, as well as a decrease in investment activity due to the high key interest rate," explains Roman Rufov, senior manager of the TeDo business consulting practice. To achieve the targets by 2030, 110-150 thousand new robots need to be installed, which, at a minimum price per unit of a robotic solution, will lead to a cumulative investment of trillions of rubles by the end of the decade, he says. By 2027, it is planned to allocate more than 88.9 billion rubles from the budget of the Russian Federation for a federal project for the development of industrial robotics, TASS wrote. "Without government support, the industrial market is unlikely to achieve the stated growth parameters," Mr. Rufov is confident.
The planned government support covers only part of the industry's investment needs, adds Sergey Kudryashov, partner of the Digital Transformation practice at Strategy Partners: "The main investments should come from the enterprises themselves." At the same time, the key issue remains the payback of projects in conditions of high interest rates and the need for comprehensive restructuring of production processes, he explains: "Robotization is not just the installation of equipment, but a comprehensive digital transformation of production processes."
In addition, the industry is being formed almost from scratch, and high requirements for the localization of robot production can slow down market growth, says Mr. Kudryashov. "The requirements should be increased gradually: without imported components, production will either be too expensive or unrealistic," he believes.
Alexey Zhabin
