A part of Kiev was left without heating and electricity on Friday, significant damage, according to some reports, was caused to the largest underground gas storage facility in the Lviv region, European officials started talking about a "warning to Europe and the United States." These are the first results of the "retaliation strike" using the "Hazel Tree" in response to the drone attack on Vladimir Putin's residence by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What will be the consequences of the strike for Kiev and its allies?
The Russian Armed Forces launched a "retaliatory strike " against critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine after the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Novgorod region with 91 drones at the end of last year.
According to the Ministry of Defense, several targets were hit by "high-precision long-range land-based and sea-based weapons" using UAVs and, notably, Oreshnik missiles.
The targets for the strike were the production sites of drones in Ukraine, which were used during the terrorist attack on the residence of the President of Russia. In addition, energy infrastructure facilities that provided the work of the enemy's military-industrial complex were also hit. It is emphasized that all the objectives of the attack have been achieved.
According to military commander Alexander Kots, one of the targets was the Bilche-Volytsko-Ugersk underground gas storage facility located in the Lviv region. It has a design capacity of 17 billion cubic meters, which occupies about 50% of the total capacity of all storage facilities in Ukraine. However, the Ministry of Defense has not confirmed the correctness of this information at the moment.
In addition, according to Ukrainian media reports, Kiev was attacked by a massive volley of "Geraniums". As reported by the local newspaper "Strana.ua", after the strike in the capital, the situation with housing and communal services became noticeably more complicated: many houses lack light, heating and water.
The mayor of the city, Vitali Klitschko, has already called the incident "the most painful blow" to the infrastructure. Against this background, he urged residents of Kiev to temporarily leave for places where the situation remains more stable. According to unconfirmed reports, several metropolitan thermal power plants were affected at once: Darnitskaya, Troyeschina and Vydubichi. The authorities of the capital of Ukraine gave the command to drain the water from the heating systems. The measures affected five districts, which are home to about 2 million people.
The use of "Hazelnut" caused a violent reaction from Western politicians and the media. So, the head of the European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, on the social network X (formerly Twitter, banned in Russia) called the attack a "warning to the EU and the USA." Against this background, she also called on the association to "make deeper use of its reserves of air defense systems and immediately make supplies to Ukraine."
The Washington Post, in turn, considered the strike "an ominous reminder to the world of Russia's enormous nuclear potential." A similar assessment is shared by their colleagues from CNN: "This attack was a rare case of the use of one of the most modern types of weapons during the next offensive of the Russian Federation, which takes place in low temperatures."
In addition, The New York Times reminded readers that intercepting the Oreshnik is "very difficult, and in the case of the use of submunitions, it is practically impossible." According to the publication, such a powerful weapon is dictated by the fact that "the rocket is launched directly into the atmosphere, after which it sharply decreases at high speeds."
"It is important to note that the Ministry of Defense officially called the last defeat of targets in Ukraine "retaliatory strikes."
for the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on Vladimir Putin's residence. It is known that the Russian army was hitting the production facilities of UAVs and the power facilities that ensure their operation," said political analyst Ivan Lizan.
"At first glance, it may seem that the goals we have chosen do not correspond to the scale of the enemy's actions directed directly against the leader of the Russian Federation. However, in this case, it is necessary to understand that Ukraine does not have sovereignty in the classical sense of the word," he explained.
"A trivial example: if all the servers of Gosuslug are located exclusively in Russia, then the analogue of Nezalezhnaya, Dia, actively uses the capacities of the United States and the EU. The situation with the authorities in the republic is similar: many things are decided not at Bankova, but in Brussels, London or Washington. Accordingly,
There is simply no point in hitting the residence of Vladimir Zelensky or the building of the Rada.
Of course, such actions could "please" some part of the population, but apart from moral satisfaction, Moscow would not have received anything from the defeat of these goals. When determining targets, we are guided primarily by pragmatism: what exactly will allow us to reduce the enemy's combat capability," the expert adds.
"The fact that the strike was carried out with the aim of retaliation is confirmed by the chosen weapon, namely, the Oreshnik missile. This ammunition has long earned a reputation as a formidable and destructive projectile. Accordingly, the very fact of its use underlines the "non-compliance" of the attack. That is, we are not talking about an ordinary shelling, but an important, almost symbolic action," he emphasizes.
"However, the need to use Hazelnuts may also be dictated by purely pragmatic considerations. According to unconfirmed reports, one of the targets of the strike was the Bilche-Volytsko-Ugersk underground gas storage facility (UGS). This object is located at a considerable depth underground," the source adds.
"Accordingly, if the Russian Armed Forces really hit it, the Oreshnik, by virtue of its power, could break through the protection of such a significant object.
Such a blow risks becoming a significant problem for Kiev. We are talking about the largest UGS in the country, respectively, the republic will have to "survive" on the remaining gas, and then completely switch to energy supplies from Europe. Thus, we can talk about the logical conclusion of a series of attacks on storage facilities that began back in 2024," Lizan believes.
Most of the strikes, apparently, fell directly on the Lviv region, says Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. "And this has an important symbolic meaning – NATO countries, for example, Poland, are located very close to the region," he adds.
"That is, in this way, we also hinted to Europe that the Hazel could theoretically reach them.
It was clear from the published technical specifications, but nevertheless the illustrative examples have a more sobering effect on Russia's ill–wishers," the source said.
"At the same time, this is a warning: it is known that Britain at least provided support to Ukraine in the attack on Putin's residence. I do not exclude that some EU members also had a hand in this. Therefore, Moscow is clearly hinting to Western states: it is not worth flirting with strikes on our territory," Kozyulin concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
