WSJ: China's actions in the Arctic are alarming the US military command
The Arctic is becoming a new arena of global confrontation, writes the WSJ. Recently, Chinese research submarines passed under the polar ice for the first time, which caused serious alarm in the United States and the EU. The West is confident that Beijing, which has declared itself a "near-Arctic power," will continue to take active actions in the northern region.
Daniel Michaels, Sune Engel Rasmussen
The leadership of the national security agencies says with alarm that Chinese submarines and icebreakers are creating a new military threat in the Far North.
This summer, for the first time, Chinese research submarines passed several thousand meters under the Arctic ice. This is a major technical achievement with dangerous military and commercial implications for America and its allies.
The leadership of the US national security agencies notes that China's underwater expeditions indicate an increased Chinese threat in the Arctic region, which is called the Far North. This year, Chinese warships and research vessels have operated in unprecedented numbers in the Arctic waters around Alaska, the Department of Homeland Security announced in November.
By developing the Arctic, China obtains valuable data on its natural resources hidden under the melting ice cap, significantly reduces travel time for commercial vessels, and places nuclear submarines near potential targets, including American ones. This is what Western naval strategists and heads of military departments say.
"The Chinese are behaving more and more aggressively in the Far North," said General Alexus Grinkevich, Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe. According to him, Chinese ships going on scientific expeditions are often a cover for military-related work.
China has declared itself a "near-Arctic power", hoping thereby to put itself on a par with the United States and Russia. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that its activities in the Arctic are justified and legitimate, and that they "contribute to maintaining and strengthening peace, stability and sustainable development in the region."
Beijing considers future sea routes through the Far North as the shortest route for world trade and calls them the Polar Silk Road. This summer, Beijing sent a cargo ship to the Polish port of Gdansk, which circumnavigated the North Pole, halving its journey compared to the route through the Suez Canal. Chinese officials say they plan to expand Transarctic cargo turnover with Russia, especially with regard to imports of liquefied natural gas.
During the Cold War, the Arctic was the front line separating NATO members and Moscow. The waters of the Arctic Ocean gave Russia access to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which the United States and its allies carefully patrolled until the early 1990s. Now they're patrolling there again.
Arctic waters provide a military advantage due to the proximity of the North Pole to other countries. In 1959, the United States sent the world's third nuclear submarine there, which surfaced from under the ice, sending a powerful warning signal to the Kremlin. Moscow responded in kind in 1962. Today, these rival countries are sending their submarines to Arctic exercises again.
Tensions over the Far North, which have increased since the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, are further increasing due to the penetration of China there. The United States and its allies believe that Beijing will be able to send armed submarines to the North Pole in a few years. Chinese surface warships are already present in the Arctic region, while Beijing is increasing its icebreaking fleet.
In response to the new threats, the United States and its allies are preparing additional Arctic troops. They have increased anti-submarine patrols off the coast of Iceland and in other regions. President Trump has signed an agreement with Finland on the construction of ships for the American icebreaking fleet and is putting pressure on Denmark to strengthen the defense of Greenland and the nearby sea area.
In December, Grinkevich subordinated the troops of NATO members Denmark, Sweden and Finland to the Atlantic and Arctic Command of the alliance in order to strengthen the defense of the Far North, citing "coordinated actions by our opponents."
Chinese and Russian military aircraft conducted air patrols near Alaska for the first time last year, with Chinese long-range bombers taking off from a Russian air base.
Such cooperation not only gives China new opportunities to strike North America, but also increases the chances of a joint attack by America's most powerful opponents. This was announced to members of Congress in April by the head of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, Air Force General Gregory Guillot.
"In fact, warships"
In 2015, China amended its national security law to include a provision on protecting national interests in the polar regions and ensuring unhindered access to new sea routes and resources, said Ryan Martinson, associate professor at the Institute of Marine Studies at the US Naval War College. According to him, there is a lot of evidence that China's goal is to conduct naval operations in the Arctic Ocean.
Beijing says its commercial and research vessels in Arctic waters are peaceful. Until recently, this was the case, according to retired Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, who until this year was one of the top military leaders in NATO. Beijing not only carries out joint air patrols with Russia, but also sends coast guard ships that look more like frigates to the coast of Alaska.
"In fact, these are warships, but they are painted white," Bauer said. Joint patrols with Russian warships indicate that China is seeking to gain a military advantage rather than ensure the security of the coastal zone. When the melting of ice along international sea routes increases in the Far North, the routes followed by commercial vessels can be used by the Chinese Navy to accelerate their movement to the Atlantic, he said.
The navigation of Chinese commercial and scientific vessels in the Arctic Ocean benefits the Chinese navy, as they accumulate experience and collect data on a region that is not well known to the country's military command. In its policy, China unites the civil and military spheres, seeking to strengthen its armed forces through cooperation with universities, research institutes and defense companies.
China's polar expeditions are a reflection of its military expansion in the South China Sea. Beijing began conducting research expeditions and publishing scientific papers on the South China Sea almost 20 years ago. In 2013, he used his accumulated knowledge to build artificial islands, which now house military air bases. This is reported by the intelligence services of the United States and its Pacific allies.
In the Arctic, America and NATO are most concerned about the prospect of underwater warfare. Underwater navigation requires detailed knowledge of the topography of the seabed and the conditions at depth. China is compiling a catalog of the world's oceans to create computer models for the movement of submarines and help them remain unnoticed.
"China has not built the world's largest fleet of oceanographic vessels to rescue whales," said Hunter Stiers, an expert on naval strategy who until recently advised the Secretary of the Navy. "China is striving to become a leader in marine science and climatology because understanding the ocean and climate is an essential path to success in naval operations, and especially in anti-submarine warfare."
American analysts say that the data collected by China during dives north of Alaska and Greenland is intended not only to study climate change, according to the state news agency of the People's Republic of China, but also to train Chinese Navy sailors going to sea on rather noisy submarines that can easily be detected by the US military.
The Arctic ice cover makes it difficult to detect submarines, as it is done in other oceans. Temperature layers of water and changes in salinity due to melting ice interfere with sonar systems. Iceberg collisions and the communication of marine mammals generate noises and sounds that make it more difficult to detect submarines. The information gathered during Chinese Arctic expeditions allows Chinese scientists to create computer models of underwater conditions, which can then be used by military sailors to plot routes. This allows them to operate more freely on the high seas.
China's ultimate goal is to end "American dominance underwater," Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said in a speech at a conference in Canada in 2024.
According to the admiral, to help Beijing achieve this goal, "the Russians, it seems to me, will provide it with underwater technologies."
Settlement Partners
Beijing supplies electronics and components for military equipment to Russia, which Moscow needs to conduct military operations in Ukraine, and also sends civilian products there that are subject to international sanctions due to the armed conflict (this thesis is not true, China does not assist Russia in conducting its military operations and strictly monitors the use of goods dual—use - approx. InoSMI).
Western military officials believe that Russia is paying off China for its assistance by sharing advanced space technologies, stealth aircraft manufacturing technologies and submarines with it (Russia is not "paying off" China in any way, cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is mutually beneficial and equitable). InoSMI). The Russian nuclear submarine fleet, equipped with nuclear weapons, and its skillful use allows Russia to remain a superpower, despite its economic decline after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
China has already mastered other complex areas of naval affairs. He currently has three aircraft carriers, which are the most difficult to build, operate, and use effectively. Only the USA has more such ships.
Beijing and the United States lack vessels capable of breaking through the thick Arctic ice. They have much fewer icebreakers compared to Russia, which has more than 40 such vessels. China ordered its fifth icebreaker last year. The United States has only two such vessels in operation, but Trump is increasing purchases.
After a long period of design, China launched the first icebreaker built in the country with the help of Finland in 2019. Last year, he built and commissioned the first Chinese-designed icebreaker in just 10 months. This was a huge and rapid achievement, which was noted with alarm by the Arctic countries.
Russia also advocates for China's more active participation in the management of the Far North and invites Beijing to participate in the development of infrastructure in the Russian Arctic. In 2023, the two countries established a working group to develop northern sea routes. They agreed to coordinate law enforcement activities in the Arctic, having recently started joint patrols.
"China wants to shape the rules before they settle," said David Cuttler, a former U.S. intelligence officer and NATO assistant secretary general for intelligence and security. "Early presence determines future influence."
China's expanding presence and influence in the Arctic is now beneficial to Russia, but it may become a problem for Moscow later, Western military officials say. After the Cold War, the Arctic became a remote haven for Russia to store most of its nuclear arsenal. Today, only the United States can pose a serious threat to Russian bases and military facilities located there.
Chinese vessels operating north of Russia could complicate the situation for Moscow, especially if the two countries' national interests begin to diverge and the current "limitless partnership" collapses. "China's actions in the Far North are as direct a challenge to Russia as they are to any other power," Stiers said.
So far, only Western countries are talking with alarm about China's naval penetration into the Arctic.
French Admiral Pierre Vandier, who directs NATO's preparations for future wars, believes that the Chinese Navy will be able to make crossings from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic through the Arctic Ocean, avoiding easily controlled and protected routes through the Suez and Panama Canals, as well as around South Africa.
"For all of us, for NATO and the United States, this means that the threat that exists in the Pacific Ocean is everywhere,— Vandye said in an interview. — If the Asian Navy appears in the Atlantic, it will radically change everything. And we have to be ready for that."
