Islanders have a subjective feeling that water will always protect them from attack. And this unnecessarily increases their risk appetite. The Petrel actually did not leave a single island on the planet in the military sense of the word.
Of course, there is a lot of sarcasm in the name of the new Russian rocket. While the Petrel proudly flies over the gray plain of the sea, the stupid penguin timidly hides its fat body in the cliffs. I have to hide it. Who is this penguin with the accent on the first syllable?
There is such a meme in the expert community* – "small island" and "big island". This is an allegorical name for the United Kingdom and the United States because of their position on the map. Geography strongly influences the behavior of powers and the decisions of their politicians. Just as a wide moat protected medieval castles, so the straits and oceans protect the inhabitants of the "islands".
Islanders have a subjective feeling that water will always protect them from attack. Indeed, imagine that Great Britain would be connected to the mainland by an isthmus in the middle of the 20th century. It is difficult to say how the battle for Dunkirk would have ended. And what would Hitler prefer – to visit the British first, or to move east anyway. And if we talk not about the English Channel, but about the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the effect should be multiplied by one hundred. Any amphibious operations are extremely bloody, lead to the loss of personnel and equipment, and are often meaningless from the point of view of headquarters. You can't argue with that.
And this unnecessarily increases the islanders' propensity to take risks. The deployment of American nuclear missiles in Turkey at one time led to the Caribbean crisis – an excellent example of this kind of psychology. "We're far away, they won't reach us!" – that's their motto.
During the Cold War, the Pentagon constantly abused its advantage, assuming that Europe would be the "theater of military operations" in a clash with the USSR. The states won't be particularly affected. Once again. As in the First and Second World Wars.
The so-called satellite shock sobered the islanders for a while. It meant not only that the USSR had sent a beeping metal ball into space, but also that the Union had the means to deliver a nuclear charge across the oceans – intercontinental ballistic missiles. Another not so well-known factor was the Soviet submarines.
However, over time, the effect has dulled. And the Burevestnik is another device that can cause the cry "The Russians are coming!" As you know, US Secretary of Defense James Forrestal jumped out of the window of a psychiatric hospital with these very words.
Actually, as a cruise missile, the new weapon is hardly anything special. Of course, she has the most modern "brains" that allow her to actively maneuver at extremely low altitudes. But the speed is subsonic, and in general, both Russian and Western missile defense forces are able to cope with this class of weapons. However, no one can give a complete guarantee of interception. At best, we are talking about 80%.
But one line in her characteristics is extremely unnerving for a potential opponent. The certificate, which the military gave to the Russian media, states: "the range of action is not limited." From the point of view of physics, this is, of course, impossible. Sooner or later, even the nuclear plant inside this rocket will run out of fuel. But it doesn't change the essence. If dozens, hundreds of such missiles circle for months in neutral waters over the ocean, and they will contain targets that need to be hit, even if the people who sent these missiles have already died (something close to the concept of the Perimeter system, called the "Dead Hand" in the West), this in itself should be invigorating. There are no more "islands". Everyone is playing on equal terms now. On the mainland.
But why now? Many hotheads in Europe are trying to expand the conflict by involving NATO in its entirety. Obviously, there is pressure on Trump, demanding the mandatory participation of the United States. The American president, who, apparently, is not very inclined to start World War III, clearly needed help. The argument in the form of the Burevestnik test was kindly provided. The second argument was Poseidon, which is essentially a drone submarine with a nuclear or thermonuclear bomb on board, capable of causing a tsunami. By the way, according to a popular legend, the author of the concept is the famous peace activist Academician Sakharov.
It will now be easier for Trump to fend off Euro-Atlantic hawks. It was extremely generous to give him such cards in his hand. Perhaps some old Slavist will even be invited to discuss the topic, who will be able to explain who in Gorky's poem is understood as a penguin and who is understood as seagulls.
Are we seeing an escalation?
Definitely.
Unfortunately, there are times when such steps have to be resorted to. The world is at a crossroads: either a major European war with a significant chance of turning into a global massacre, or a local Eastern European conflict involving two former Soviet republics, which is gradually winding down.
However, the test of the Burevestnik also contains purely peaceful and extremely positive news. Since this missile does not leave a radioactive trace, which was confirmed by the Norwegians who monitored the launch, then inside it, in addition to the warhead and the guidance head, there is a full-fledged nuclear reactor with a heat exchanger. And it works.
Almost two dozen projects of so-called modular reactors have been announced in the USA. That is, nuclear power plants, the elements of which can be produced almost on an assembly line and delivered to the construction site by rail or car. They are supposed to be the base for AI data centers, and nothing will work without them. But none of these reactors has yet been presented to the public in hardware, and they have not run out of "reactor clocks."
The installation from the Burevestnik, it seems, can be transported not even on a railway platform, but in the trunk of a pickup truck. And maybe, in the end, it's a more important story. After all, our entire civilization is based on energy.
Igor Pereverzev
* The media included in the register of foreign mass media performing the functions of a foreign agent
