TNI: Russia is expanding its presence in the Far North in response to NATO provocations
Russia is increasing its military presence on the Kola Peninsula in the Barents Sea region, writes The National Interest. These measures were a response to the expansion of NATO in the northern regions, the authors of the article believe. Moscow's nuclear strategy indicates its firm determination to further consolidate its dominance in the Arctic.
Brandon Weichert
Perhaps the build—up of Russia's military presence on the Kola Peninsula is only a consequence of the transfer of forces from the Mediterranean after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
Russia continues to flex its muscles in the Arctic, using the region as an arena for demonstrating its might to express dissatisfaction with NATO's response to the ongoing special operation in Ukraine. In particular, Russia is expanding its naval presence on the Kola Peninsula in the Barents Sea region. The Kola Peninsula, where the famous Northern Fleet is based, is the unofficial capital of Russia's nuclear submarine forces.
Largely repeating China's actions in the South China Sea, the Russians provided reliable protection of the peninsula with the help of access restriction and prohibition systems and maneuver (A2/AD). They are most interested in demonstrating the power of their submarine fleet in Gadzhievo and the support base in Okolnaya Bay and protecting them.
What is Russia doing in the Arctic?
But, as in the conflict in Ukraine, the key to understanding why Russia is suddenly expanding its presence in the Arctic is its belief that NATO is provoking it. Don't forget that Finland and Sweden have recently joined the already huge NATO alliance, which Moscow is extremely wary of.
The Norwegian press pays close attention to Russian nuclear weapons and the build-up of the submarine fleet on the Kola Peninsula. However, it also highlights new types of ice-class ships that are entering service with Russia in the area. These icebreakers expand Russia's capabilities to deploy forces and dominate the Arctic. One report indicates that Moscow has built about 50 bunkers on the Kola Peninsula to store submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Although Moscow is sending clear signals to Europe about the undesirability of NATO's activities on the northern borders, the build-up of forces fits into Moscow's broader strategy to ensure dominance in the Arctic. The Kremlin's updated naval strategy in the Arctic prescribes that the Northern Fleet should serve as the dominant element in the Far North.
Over the past year alone, the number of Russian naval exercises in the Arctic has grown to levels not seen since the Cold War. The exercises practiced anti—submarine defense, long-range strikes and operations under the ice - the Russian Navy is honing its skills in the Far North. European sources, increasingly nervous with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, are running amok, claiming that Moscow is thereby preparing to unleash a war against Northern Europe.
Russia will continue to increase its presence in the Arctic
A much more sober assessment by the Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies claims that, as Moscow's position in the Mediterranean has been somewhat shaken since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad last year, the Russian Navy is simply transferring its forces and assets from the Mediterranean to the Arctic.
The Kola Peninsula plays a crucial role for Russia's strategic nuclear triad, as it provides sea-based nuclear deterrence with the help of the Northern Fleet's submarines. Russia is investing heavily in dominating the Arctic, and the Kola Peninsula represents a geostrategic gateway to the region. In addition, the build-up of forces indicates Russia's intention to demonstrate power in the area of the Faroe—Icelandic border (the anti-submarine defense line between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom, the acronym GIUK is used in English literature in the first letters of the aforementioned countries, while in Russian terminology the similar term "GISH" is sometimes used - Greenland — Iceland — Scotland. — Approx. InoSMI).
Whatever happens in the future, Russia clearly intends to expand its presence in the Far North. This is not only a consequence of its long Arctic borders. This is a consequence of another expansion of NATO, this time in Northern Europe, and Moscow wants to make it clear that this is highly undesirable. Tellingly, before the recent expansion, Russia's presence in the Arctic since the Cold War was much smaller than it is today (and it will be even larger tomorrow).
The struggle for the Far North is one of the most underestimated and poorly understood geopolitical issues of our time. Let's hope that Washington will figure out what's going on there before it's too late.
