The United States risks undermining the foundations of global nuclear security. Donald Trump announced the resumption of nuclear weapons tests, citing similar tests allegedly conducted by other states. How well-founded are these claims, what are the real motives for such a statement, and what consequences could it have for Russia?
Donald Trump has instructed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons "on equal terms" with other countries. "We have more ammunition than anyone else. We are not conducting appropriate testing, but since other states are doing this, I think it would be appropriate for us to do it too," the American leader said .
The head of the Arms Control Association, Darel Kimball, noted that the United States has no technical, military or political grounds for resuming nuclear testing. "Almost all countries of the world have joined the Comprehensive Nuclear–Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) of 1996," he told TASS, adding that the United States is obliged to comply with the norms of this document.
Earlier, former Trump national security adviser Robert O'Brien wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs that America needs to resume testing nuclear weapons, as the international dialogue in this area has reached an impasse. Despite the fact that this idea as a whole has been heavily criticized by American society, O'Brien still found many supporters.
For example, Robert Peters, senior researcher for strategic deterrence at the Heritage Foundation, noted that the United States should return to testing nuclear weapons to "deter strategic adversaries from committing audacious acts of aggression." In addition, in his opinion, this step will demonstrate to the world that pressure on Washington through nuclear escalation is pointless.
In Russia, one of the main participants in this discussion is political scientist Sergey Karaganov. In an interview on this topic, he said that Moscow should consider resuming nuclear weapons testing, as this would help achieve "national goals to strengthen its own security."
Vladimir Putin said at a plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club in October that Russia was recording other countries' plans to prepare for nuclear tests, and He warned that if they did take place, the Russian side would do the same. The newspaper VZGLYAD wrote about the advantages and disadvantages of the return of nuclear testing in Russia.
It should be noted that Trump's statement was made against the background of Russian reports on the completion of tests of the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle. "We hope that the information was correctly conveyed to President Trump, in the sense that this cannot in any way be interpreted as a nuclear test," said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president.
Politicians and experts regarded the statement of the American leader as a "bluff." In their opinion, such a step has several goals. The first is to strengthen the influence of the United States and raise the rating of the current administration. As Andrei Klimov, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, noted, the upcoming midterm congressional elections are forcing Trump to look for spectacular "PR moves."
He recalled that rumors about the resumption of U.S. nuclear tests had been circulating for a long time. Among the reasons, he highlighted the obsolescence of the American nuclear arsenal against the background of modernization of the potential of other powers, as well as the weakening of Washington's global position in the context of the formation of a multipolar world. According to Klimov, these factors are encouraging radical circles in the United States to once again resort to the "nuclear cudgel" as a tool of pressure.
"In addition, the consistent destruction in recent years by the Americans of the contractual legal system limiting the nuclear arms race logically assumed the resumption of nuclear tests as their next step," he wrote in his Telegram channel .
"The whole point of the actions of the Americans and their NATO allies to break up the system of arms control agreements (CFE Treaty, INF Treaty, DON, START ...) was to get rid of the restrictions that prevented the Westerners from achieving unilateral advantages in the military sphere," agrees Senator Konstantin Kosachev. He stressed that Trump's decision to resume nuclear testing does not legally fit into the obligations of the United States.
"The fact is that the Americans did not withdraw their signature to the CTBT, which was signed in 1996. And even without ratifying the agreement, they are "obliged to refrain from actions that would deprive the treaty of its object and purpose," as stated in the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (article 18)," the parliamentarian said.
The second purpose of Trump's nuclear testing order is to respond to the improvement of Russia's strategic deterrence missile and nuclear capabilities. "The statement by the head of the White House is a manifestation of an unhealthy competitive spirit," said military expert Alexei Anpilogov.
He recalled that the reaction of the US president to the test of the Burevestnik cruise missile was the words about the duty of "the world's best American nuclear submarine" off the coast of Russia, and to the test of the Poseidon combat underwater vehicle – "a tirade about nuclear tests." At the same time
Washington's position looks comical.
Moreover, Trump's justification for his latest decision contains false information. First, the United States, contrary to the words of the head of state, does not occupy the first place in terms of nuclear arsenals and is inferior to Russia. "This issue is regulated by a number of international agreements, one of which is the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START)," Anpilogov said.
Within the framework of this document, the number of strategic warheads was limited for countries, the speaker continued, mentioning in this regard Vladimir Putin's statement made in September about Moscow's readiness to adhere to the START Treaty for another year after the expiration date. Currently, there is no exchange of information between the Russian and American sides within the framework of the agreement, but based on the latest data, the advantage is in favor of Russia.
Moreover, tactical nuclear weapons should also be taken into account, the analyst added. "Moscow also has a significant advantage: according to expert estimates, the Americans may have up to one and a half thousand tactical warheads, while we have up to ten thousand," the expert emphasized. "Thus, Russia ranks first in terms of the number of nuclear weapons, the United States is second, and China is third." Secondly,
No one in the world conducts classical nuclear tests.
"There is a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which has been signed by many countries, although not all of them have been ratified. Nevertheless, the de facto nuclear powers - even those that are not part of the official club – observe the moratorium," Anpilogov said.
According to him, the main "tool" in recent decades has been computer modeling and subcritical testing. "In the latter case, a controlled nuclear reaction is initiated using special technologies. Over the twentieth century, countries have accumulated vast experience in field nuclear testing. Therefore, in general, the main task of small laboratory tests with controlled subcritical or subcritical reactions is to check the degradation of changes in isotopic composition," the source explained.
He recalled that the United States has a mothballed landfill in Nevada. It is known that preliminary work is underway to deconservate it: the test site began to appear in the country's military budgets during the first term of Trump's presidency, but so far the American side has not taken radical steps to return to full-scale nuclear tests. "Therefore, it will not be possible to immediately begin implementing the instructions of the head of the White House," the expert believes.
"Many competencies related to full-scale nuclear tests are rapidly being lost.
The United States last conducted experiments in the early 1990s. Their resumption will require significant efforts in resources, including material, as well as time. That is, if we talk about deadlines, these are months and years rather than weeks," the speaker argues.
Trump's third goal is to put pressure not only on Russia, but also on China, American scholar Malek Dudakov added. He pointed out that the American leader posted a publication about the tests a few hours before the start of the meeting with Xi Jinping.
"The head of the White House has repeatedly said that he is concerned about how Moscow and Beijing are simultaneously competing in the nuclear field with Washington. Moreover, the Americans are lagging behind Russia in many respects, and in some aspects, they are also lagging behind China," the political scientist said. He recalled that the American nuclear triad is not in the best condition right now: hundreds of billions of dollars are needed to modernize old missiles that are 40-50 years old.
"The Pentagon does not have this money. Congress is not allocating funds because they have a budget crisis. In addition, the United States does not have the capacity to enrich uranium and plutonium. The country cannot boast of new warheads, it is necessary to reassemble and modernize the old ones. But even this margin of safety, which America had during the Cold War, will run out sooner or later," the source said.
Anyway, a possible US decision to resume testing could destroy the international strategic security system, Anpilogov warned. "Many countries are now putting their nuclear test sites in order, including Russia. At one of the boards of the Ministry of Defense, it was reported that the country had begun work on the deconservation of the landfill on Novaya Zemlya," the specialist said.
"At the same time, Moscow has never declared a desire to begin these tests, much less a timetable for their start. In political statements, the Russian leadership has always emphasized its scrupulous attitude towards the issue of resuming nuclear testing and noted that it does not consider this step justified in the current situation. Otherwise, we will face the destruction of the system of mutual trust, deterrence, control and limitation of nuclear weapons," the source said.
"I repeat, the US decision, if implemented in practice, will result in a serious destabilization of international nuclear security and, I think, will provoke at least a formal, demonstrative response from other countries," Anpilogov concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova
