Igor Korotchenko — how the Russian Federation can respond to a possible escalation of the conflict, and the capabilities of the Burevestnik
The statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the response to attacks with long—range weapons, including Tomahawk, on the territory of the country will be overwhelming is not just a spontaneous statement by the president, but a carefully prepared and conceptually grounded response to the challenges and threats that Russia faces and may face in particular. This answer may also be "Petrel".
Prerequisites for escalation
First of all, the risks are associated with the use of Western long-range missile weapons, which can be obtained by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but which they will not be able to operate independently. The Ukrainian army will launch, program and direct them not by itself, but with the participation of Western military specialists. Secondly, in connection with Vladimir Zelensky's statement about the possibility of Ukraine striking targets deep into Russia as many as 3 thousand. km, primarily by aircraft-type drones of new developments.
This threat is real. And it will concern not only Central Russia, but also remote Russian regions, where previously such threats were out of reach. This applies to the most important facilities for oil and gas production, processing and transportation of hydrocarbons, as well as the transport, logistics and defense infrastructure of the Russian Federation.
In this regard, it is obvious that there is every reason to link the statement of the Supreme Commander with the recent training of strategic nuclear forces.
But it is important to understand under what circumstances and exactly how Russia intends to respond to such attacks from the enemy.
Naturally, it makes no sense to decipher the president's response, we can only try to predict from an analytical and expert point of view what exactly he meant. And it is obvious that this was not a spontaneous statement, but an announcement of those possible Russian response plans that have already been prepared by order of the head of the Russian state by the relevant structures, primarily the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
Possible options
After the complete completion of the entire test cycle and adoption into service, one such response option may be the use of an unlimited-range cruise missile "Burevestnik" with a nuclear power plant with a conventional or special warhead. Little is known about its tactical and technical characteristics. But, as the head of state said, this is a unique product that no one else in the world has.
During the tests, the rocket flew for several hours — it was in the air for about 15 hours and overcame 14 thousand km. km, but that's not the limit either. The characteristics of the missile allow it to be used with guaranteed accuracy against highly protected objects at any distance. All vertical and horizontal maneuvers were performed during the flight of the rocket. It should be noted that this proves its high capabilities in circumventing anti-missile and anti-aircraft defense (ABM/air defense) systems. Now there is a lot of work to be done before putting weapons on combat duty, the main thing is to prepare the infrastructure.
The successful testing of the Burevestnik unlimited-range cruise missile has once again confirmed that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if necessary to ensure security and protect its national interests.
If we are talking about responding to an aggressive action by a particular NATO country (a strike on Russia by German or American long—range cruise missiles from the territory of Ukraine, while programming, entering flight missions and launching are carried out by German or US military personnel), then the best response option for the Taurus is a retaliatory strike by the MRBMS."Oreshnik" by the manufacturer of the corresponding missiles in Germany. A strike with six nuclear-free warheads will lead to the fact that the production of Taurus will be completely destroyed, and it will be possible to restore it no earlier than in five to seven years.
Regarding the reaction in the event of a Tomahawk strike on us, it could be a retaliatory strike with a nuclear-free Hazelnut at one of the American military bases in Europe. Which should be chosen from the point of view of achieving maximum effect, both informational and military. At the same time, as a gesture of goodwill, we can warn 45 minutes before the strike — since there is nothing to repel it — that the Pentagon evacuates its military personnel. Only the infrastructure will be affected, and the political and military effects will be obvious.
This is exactly how Iran acted. We know of two such examples. The first is that in response to the assassination of the general of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qasem Soleimani, an American military base in the Middle East region was attacked. And the second was in response to the use of American B—2 Spirit bombers to attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure, in response to which the Iranian side also attacked one of the American bases.
We can, in principle, react in a similar way. At the same time, they are well aware that this is a risk of escalation.
And more. If we are acting not in response to Zelensky's attacks, but in response to attacks by the United States and Germany from the territory of Ukraine, then in order to demonstrate our determination to take further action — if the enemy does not learn the lesson taught to him — there is a need to deploy in combat patrol areas and withdraw a full set of available mobile ground-based Yars missile systems."with readiness for an immediate nuclear response.
And here Russia must have absolute determination and rigidity in decision-making in order to prevent the enemy from further shifting the line of escalation, pushing us to the fact that we will again find ourselves in a kind of vulnerable attitude.
From an expert and analytical point of view, I have listed the possible response options. Naturally, specific plans and proposals to the president were prepared by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Supreme Commander-in-Chief has obviously already approved them, therefore, the list of targets, objects for a retaliatory strike, and one or another response option have been worked out in detail in the Kremlin and are ready for implementation by the Russian Armed Forces after receiving the order of the Supreme Commander.
Reliable air defense
The Russian air defense/missile defense system is definitely being strengthened.
But what is the difficulty of intercepting Tomahawk? The Tomahawk missiles themselves as a target are understandable, identifiable, and destroyed by all air defense systems and complexes in service with the Russian Army.
I will list them: S-400, S-300V4, S-300 of various modifications are long—range systems. The Buk-M2 and Buk-M3 medium-range complexes also work very effectively on cruise missiles of this class. And the means that directly cover the objects themselves or are deployed in groups of troops are the Tor-M2 and Pantsir-S1. This entire range of air defense systems allows you to detect, intercept and destroy Tomahawk and Taurus in your area of responsibility.
But the caveat is that the Tomahawk launch cannot be detected by any means of radar monitoring, and this is an important feature.
For example, if we are talking about an intercontinental ballistic missile or just a ballistic missile, then after it launches and gains altitude, it is detected, detected, its further trajectory and the end point where it is intended are determined by space launch vehicle satellites and long-range radar stations.
But it is impossible to detect the launch of the Tomahawk — it is a cruise missile that flies to the target at a minimum altitude in the mode of rounding the terrain.
Tomahawk missiles will be detected only when entering the air defense zone of the protected object.
And we will determine that Tomahawks are attacking us only when they are to be shot down — at the moment when they are detected in the air defense zone of the attacked object. And therein lies their danger: it is impossible to determine what it carries (nuclear or conventional warhead), from where it launched.
The use of Tomahawk carries a very high risk and threat of nuclear evacuation.
Russia's response
I would like to emphasize once again that Ukraine is a priori unable and will never be able, at least at the current time stage, to independently use weapons such as Tomahawk and Taurus.
What should we do? Logically, it is necessary to strike with an Iskander or an Oreshnik in one or another equipment variant at the intended launch site. If Tomahawk goes astray, then stop attacking the American base in Europe in a nuclear-free version to show that there will be further nuclear escalation.
I would like to emphasize once again that we are not the initiators of the escalation process. But it is already useless to shift these "red lines", which no one is talking about today. Only a demonstrative, extremely harsh Russian response can stop the further unpredictable course of events.
Igor Korotchenko, Military Analyst, Editor-in-Chief of the National Defense Magazine, Director of the Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade (CAMTO)
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