Colonel Khodarenok: several thousand guided bombs will change the situation in Ukraine
Russia is mass-producing gliding bombs with a range of up to 200 km, Ukrainian intelligence says. One of them has already covered 130 km and struck the city of Lozovaya. What kind of new ammunition are we talking about and how many of them are needed to radically change the balance of power in Ukraine? - in the material of the military observer of Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
Russia is embarking on large-scale production of aerial bombs equipped with advanced universal planning and correction modules (UMPCs), according to Ukrainian intelligence. The bombing range of new aircraft weapons can reach 200 km.
According to Ukraine, the new bombs were allegedly named "Grom-1" and "Grom-2" and have already been tested during the fighting. Vadim Skibitsky, deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, reported that during the last launch, the projectile flew 193 km. In addition, the other day, the Russian Aerospace Forces, according to the prosecutor's office of the Kharkiv region, for the first time struck the city of Lozovaya with such ammunition. It was noted that the bomb had traveled more than 130 km. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not comment on this information in any way.
According to purely preliminary information, which requires clarification, the Grom-1/2 is a hybrid of a rocket and a gliding bomb, based on the supersonic X-38 missile and the FAB-500 high-explosive aerial bomb. However, if we are really talking about the Grom guided aviation weapon system, then this is far from a novelty.
Tactical Missile Armament Corporation first reported on the project of the Grom guided missile and bomb weapons system back in 2015 at the MAKS Aerospace Salon, that is, more than ten years ago.
At that time, mock-ups of new export-made ammunition were presented in Zhukovsky, and some of the project's features were revealed, such as goals and objectives, key solutions, and the main tactical and technical characteristics of finished products. The readiness for mass production was announced back in 2019, and the facts of the combat use of "Thunderbolts" in the CW zone have been noted since 2023.
So it is quite possible that the Ukrainian Lozovaya was hit not by a Thunderbolt, but either by its significant modernization, or by one of the new models of aviation weapons.
Thousands of bombs are needed
At the same time, it is worth noting that the problem of using new weapons during military conflicts traditionally stands on three pillars. It should be applied suddenly, en masse, and over a long period of time. If at least one component falls out of this equation, the use of new weapons does not give either an operational or even an operational-strategic effect.
For example, during the First World War, the United Kingdom began developing a fundamentally new weapon, tanks, in the deepest secrecy. The enemy did not even realize that a completely new means of conducting armed struggle would arrive at the front in the near future. However, only 18 tanks took part in the first battle. And if there had been 180 or 1800 of them, then the First World War could have ended in 1916. And there are quite a lot of similar examples.
So far, according to Ukrainian sources, the combat use of a single bomb has been noted. At the same time, various sources note that "Russia is entering mass production of bombs with a range of up to 200 km," "Russia has begun mass production of aircraft bombs with new planning and correction modules," "Russia is launching a series..." etc.
However, in order to achieve the desired effect, large-scale production of new types of weapons must be deployed in deep secrecy, while preventing all possible information leaks.
For example, in order to completely paralyze the enemy's railway traffic in the front line. And such actions should be coordinated with the offensive actions of the ground forces (fleet forces) and carried out solely in their interests. This is the only way, and in no other way, to achieve a significant change in the operational and strategic situation in your favor.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
