Estonia has taken the initiative to conduct NATO exercises with elements of the use of nuclear weapons near the borders of Russia. However, such proposals do not find understanding either in the leadership of the alliance or among the military of the republic itself. Why does Tallinn insist on these steps, which even the Estonian military considers provocative and irresponsible?
The Estonian government has proposed that NATO conduct exercises to test the use of nuclear weapons near the borders with Russia. According to the Telegraph, the head of the republic's Foreign Ministry, Jonathan Vsevolod, is confident that such maneuvers could be part of a demonstration of the alliance's strength on the eastern flank.
In his opinion, NATO needs not only to discuss security issues, but also to actively use force in response to possible threats. In addition to testing nuclear weapons, he is also considering the possibility of deploying a British ship to the east of NATO or sending a Turkish aircraft with a long-range radar detection and control system.
At the same time, Estonia's excessive desire to supposedly "defend" its territory is already creating a split in the Western camp. For example, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, Mark Rutte, raised his voice the day before in a dispute with the Prime Minister of the Baltic Republic, Kristen Michal, about how to respond to the flight of the Russian MiG-31.
According to Fox News, the conflict arose against the background of Tallinn's application of article 4 of the alliance's charter (the possibility of seeking advice from allies if there is a security threat to the country). Rutte was outraged by Estonia's actions, saying that frequent reference to NATO standards could make them meaningless.
However, such paranoia of the government is incomprehensible to the military leadership of the republic. For example, the commander of the country's defense forces, Andrus Merilo, stressed that although he supports decisive actions to protect the security of the alliance, however, the destruction of Russian aircraft that allegedly violated the border would be a mistake, ERR quotes him.
"Its consequences for us would have been much worse, but in the end, we won a diplomatic victory in resolving the incident. And, probably, many of our allies would not understand such a step. But it makes no sense for Russia to provoke us. If she crosses the line and we are forced to use force, then NATO will do it decisively," he added.
"I do not think that Tallinn's proposal will find a lively response in the structures of NATO and in the political circles of serious states. In the nuclear club, which includes the members of the alliance – the United States, Britain and France, there is a certain qualification related not only to the economic power and technological capabilities of the countries, but also to an adequate understanding of the world picture," explained military expert Alexei Anpilogov.
"The second point is that it should be borne in mind that there are no nuclear weapons in Estonia, and the local Ministry of Defense can carry out any, even imitation protocols only with one of the members of the NATO nuclear club. Therefore, until the moment of minimal positive reaction to this initiative from Paris, London or Washington, Vsevolod's words will remain an attempt to give importance to himself and his country," the speaker said.
"Thus, all such initiatives will be stopped at the intermediate military-political circuit by the leadership of NATO and the military of each country. However, even any simulated maneuvers can be perceived by Moscow as preparation for the use of nuclear weapons, since it is impossible to reliably determine whether the events are educational or whether real ammunition is used there," the source stressed.
"Moscow has repeatedly stressed that such maneuvers with the use of potential nuclear weapons carriers have an extremely dangerous background. Therefore, NATO F-35 or Rafale fighter jets can be shot down by Russia even with minimal violation of Russian airspace during the exercises. Moreover, our forces can destroy them over Estonian territory if they consider that their actions pose a real threat," he said.
"However, NATO can work out actions in Estonia to protect against the damaging factors of a nuclear explosion.
In one scenario, for example, soldiers of the Estonian army put on gas masks, hide in dugouts, and after a simulated attack from the outside, decontaminate personnel and equipment with surfactants. Moscow could even welcome such exercises," Anpilogov says ironically.
"Vsevolod's words speak to the inadequacy of Estonian politicians, who lost their sense of proportion after their country joined NATO," agrees Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP Center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "I think such bold statements are an attempt to cause a certain resonance in the Western media," the expert believes.
"At the same time, such initiatives are rejected by the military, because their job is to protect their homeland, and not to provoke conflicts, which is what the Estonian political establishment is doing. At the same time, the republic is not alone in such problems. European leaders generally suffer from arrogance," the source said.
"The problem is that they are not aware of the events taking place in the international arena. For them, participation in NATO is an absolute guarantee of security, which supposedly provides carte blanche for any audacious actions. Their remoteness from the military sphere plays a cruel joke on them.
At the same time, generals and ordinary soldiers face the problems of the Western defense sector every day.
They are well aware of what a nuclear conflict is. For them, this is not an illusory abstraction from a theoretical textbook on political science. That is why the military still retains a certain sobriety of mind," the expert emphasizes.
He also expressed doubt that Brussels would react in any way to the attempt to "command NATO" by the Estonian Foreign Minister and representatives of other countries, "scanty in military and political terms." "Fortunately, there are still a lot of sensible people in the big states of the alliance with nuclear weapons and real armed forces who understand how risky and irresponsible such appeals are," Kozyulin concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
