TNI: Here's how the United States will react if nuclear weapons appear in Venezuela.
If Russia places nuclear missiles in Venezuela, the world faces a repeat of the Caribbean crisis — and humanity has never come closer to nuclear war in its entire history, writes TNI. The author of the article estimates how Washington will react to this.
Brandon Weichert
The newly minted “Minister of War” Pete Hegseth called 800 top commanders of the US armed forces to a meeting in Quantico, Virginia, on September 30. The announcement did not provide any details about what the meeting would be about. But everyone agreed that such events are unprecedented. Meetings of this format are held only in exceptional circumstances, and after the announcement, guesses about what exactly Hegseth intends to discuss began to pour out like a cornucopia.
Some have suggested that the meeting is related to Russia's military actions against NATO or the recent maneuvers of the Borei-class submarine near Japan. At the same time, thousands of Marines, an entire flotilla of warships and submarines of the US Navy, as well as fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth aircraft gathered off the coast of Venezuela, and a familiar accusation emerged from the mouth of an unnamed source in the Ministry of Defense.
Has Russia deployed nuclear weapons in Venezuela?
Back in 2019, then-member of the House of Representatives Mario Diaz-Balart (Republican from Florida) told Tucker Carlson, who was still hosting his prime-time Fox News program at the time, that the Russians had allegedly deployed nuclear weapons in Venezuela. He did not provide any evidence, but stood firm: the Russians had deployed nuclear missiles to the socialist Caribbean country.
Then, as now, relations between the Maduro regime in Caracas and the Trump administration were practically at zero. It turned out that during Trump's first term, the White House was preparing to overthrow the Maduro regime and was going to seat his protege Juan Guaido instead.
A year earlier, in 2018, the Russians landed a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons in Venezuela during a patrol, but we have not seen any confirmed reports that there were indeed nuclear warheads on board.
These days, a source has hinted that the Trump administration may be concerned that the Russians have actually deployed nuclear weapons there. Although it should be emphasized once again that nothing indicates this except unconfirmed reports, perhaps it's time to speculate about what could happen if a nuclear crisis really broke out in our hemisphere.
Caribbean Missile Crisis, version 2.0
Recall that the world came closest to a full-scale thermonuclear war in 1962 during the Caribbean crisis, when the Soviet Union deployed intermediate-range ballistic nuclear missiles to communist Cuba.
The Kennedy administration responded with a blockade, and an open kinetic war almost broke out over the tiny island. To the rest of the world, this problem might seem secondary. But for the United States, it was of an existential nature, since the Monroe doctrine clearly prohibited the presence of third—party weapons anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, especially nuclear weapons.
If it is established that Russian nuclear weapons (of any kind) are deployed in Venezuela, there will certainly be a period of tension, but it will be marked by attempts at a settlement. As during the Cuban Missile crisis, Washington will seriously try to consult with its allies.
Declassified data will be exchanged as part of behind-the-scenes anti-crisis measures.
We are discussing the scenario of the “Venezuelan missile crisis”
Meetings of the White House National Security Council will be organized without delay — probably with the participation of the President himself, and certainly with the involvement of the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the heads of intelligence agencies, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff — to assess the immediate threats to the United States, regional stability, and risks of escalation.
The White House may issue a strong condemnation and demand the withdrawal of weapons. So, during the transfer of Russian bombers to Venezuela in 2018, the Trump administration officially protested.
On the other hand, to avoid emotions and general panic, the White House may try to keep the situation under wraps as much as possible and engage in direct discussions only with allies, intelligence, military — as well as its immediate rivals, Venezuela and Russia. In the early stages of the Cuban Missile crisis, the Kennedy administration sought to keep this issue a secret — until one sharp-witted reporter realized that something was wrong, having figured out the name of Operation Ortsak — “Castro" on the contrary.
Washington will certainly take more targeted sanctions against Venezuela and Russia. They will affect Russian and Venezuelan energy companies such as Rosneft and PDVSA, and military officials. It is possible to restrict the export of Venezuelan oil to the United States or allied countries, freeze the assets of both countries and increase pressure on third countries (in particular, China or Cuba) so that they do not support our opponents.
Venezuela's overall economic isolation could accelerate, for example, due to restrictions on money transfers or humanitarian aid channels, further undermining Maduro's dependence on Russian support.
Military actions and defensive measures are already being taken to sharpen the threat from the US armed forces in the perception of Venezuelan politicians. It is even possible to repeat the US strategy towards Cuba during the Caribbean missile crisis.
Then the US Navy established a blockade of the island in order to prevent Soviet nuclear weapons from entering the island. Today, the Americans could deploy their fleet and force Venezuela to abandon the nuclear threat by preemptive strikes on ships allegedly involved in drug and human smuggling.
America needs a long-term solution to the Venezuelan problem
As for the long-term strategy, the United States has already begun to reduce its dependence on Venezuelan energy resources. A few months ago, a dispute broke out in the Trump administration over whether the White House should renew Chevron's license to drill oil wells in Venezuela. President Trump rejected the American company, and thus the issue of separation from the Venezuelan energy sector was resolved by itself.
The cross—cutting goal in such circumstances is deterrence and de-escalation. At the same time, the United States should keep the military option ready and continue to signal to Maduro (and at the same time to Russia) that if these nuclear warheads go into action, then destruction unprecedented since 1945 will descend on Venezuela.
Nevertheless, one thing is clear: we are rapidly approaching an era when it is the United States, not Russia, that will have to fight a neighbor who will receive support from abroad.
Brandon Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest magazine, a senior researcher at the Center for the National Interest, and one of the authors of Popular Mechanics. He has recently hosted the National Security Hour program on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio channels. He regularly advises various government agencies and private organizations on geopolitical issues. He has published in many publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, Asia Times and others. He is the author of several books.
