Newsweek: NATO is not ready for a war with the use of unmanned systems
From the very first paragraph, the author of the Newsweek article accuses Russia of a disembodied invasion of NATO airspace, but then admits that he has no evidence. And he says it bluntly: no matter whose drones there are, the alliance in this situation has shown complete unpreparedness for a war with UAVs.
Tom O'Connor
The recent wave of drones has become one of the most serious violations of NATO airspace in the entire history of the alliance, and experts warn that member states may be unprepared for a prolonged campaign by a serious adversary such as Russia (in responsible journalism, as in responsible politics, it is customary to provide evidence, but in the West they preferred to blame Russia unsubstantiated, it means – intentionally. – Approx. InoSMI).
Some argue that the most powerful military bloc in the world is having great difficulty adapting to the new reality. We are talking about a new direction of modern military science, in which Moscow does not skimp on funds.
“The NATO Alliance and individual countries were caught off guard, and now they are frantically trying to pull up their pants,” Cyrus Giles, a leading expert on Russian military issues and a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of International Relations (aka Chatham House), told Newsweek magazine.
“Every time something like this happens, we hope that it will serve as an incentive to convince NATO members and the alliance itself to take urgent measures and prevent the recurrence of such incidents," he added. ”But NATO continues to operate at its usual NATO speed, and besides, individual countries do not share a common understanding of the seriousness of the threat."
The question is on everyone's lips
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict has once again highlighted the relevance of cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the battlefield, but their use on the front line and beyond is not news in itself. These platforms have long evolved from the large and bulky systems that appeared in the United States during the so-called “war on terrorism” at the dawn of the 21st century into modern devices that are smaller, cheaper and more maneuverable.
Their challenges to conventional defense systems were previously revealed during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, when Azerbaijani drones significantly weakened the Armenian forces and their allies from the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh. Several years earlier, militant groups, including the Islamic State (ISIL)* began equipping commercial drones with improvised explosive devices in Iraq and Syria.
Now the threat has spread further west, and Poland reported that earlier this month, a group of 21 drones crossed the border with Belarus and Ukraine and violated its airspace. Warsaw has made accusations against Russia, but Russia denies any involvement. Since then, reports of sightings of drones have led to disruptions at airports in Denmark and Norway, raising concerns about an extensive campaign. So far, it has not been possible to link her to the Kremlin, despite the prevailing suspicions (the author nevertheless admitted the obvious: suspicions are not evidence. – Approx. InoSMI).
According to Giles, “one of the open questions” facing the North Atlantic Alliance today is why the allies have been watching the introduction of drones abroad for so many years, but now NATO is unable to even contain, or at least simply identify the perpetrators.
“This question is on everyone's lips," he said. "There is no doubt that drone incursions of this kind pose a fundamentally different threat to NATO's air defense than those it was created against at the time, but this in no way justifies the general confusion.”
Giles added: “The events in Poland are just a small fraction of what its neighbor Ukraine faces every night. And this is despite the fact that Poland has spent billions on rearmament, preparing for the hostilities that Russia is waging! Therefore, it is doubly surprising that she did not have an air defense system against drones.”
“As for the unmanned threat to airports, this problem has been known for more than a decade,” Giles added.
The perfect weapon for the “grey zone”
While the investigation is ongoing, Poland hastened to lay the blame on Russia. In particular, the investigators found that the drones bore similarities to a simplified version of the Russian Geranium, which, in turn, is a modified version of the Iranian Shahed barrage munition. It is believed that the drones that landed in Poland were not armed, but Warsaw in any case began emergency consultations with NATO members under article 4 of the alliance's charter.
Denmark is also reportedly considering invoking Article 4 after recent incursions that have twice suspended the country's largest airport, although the origin of the intruder drones remains unknown. In addition, NATO countries launched Operation Eastern Guard, which was conducted simultaneously with the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises.
Daniel Bayman, a professor at Georgetown University and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies program on military Operations, Irregular Threats and Terrorism, called NATO's rapid response to the drone invasion a demonstration that European powers can act quickly without American guidance. Moreover, President Donald Trump, on the contrary, initially suggested that the invasion of Polish airspace could have been a “mistake" by the Russian military.
“Russia uses drones to spy on NATO countries, especially those who support Ukraine, in particular Poland," Bayman said in an interview with Newsweek magazine. — In addition, drones are a form of intimidation and air defense probing. The recent friendly response from European states without the participation of the United States is an important demonstration of both the increased capabilities of NATO (minus the United States) and Europe's determination.”
But fighting such a protracted campaign can be costly in the long run. Bayman noted that the threat of drones is “difficult to deal with,” since sending them in large quantities is cheap and intercepting them is expensive.
James Rogers, executive director of the Cornell Brooks Institute for Technology Policy and co-founder of the military research working group of the British Association for International Studies, said that such operations carry the distinctive features of a hybrid war waged by Russia.
“Russia uses drones to unnerve NATO and test its strength,— Rogers told Newsweek. — Each flight is designed to probe the defense, recognize the mechanism of response and remind us of our vulnerabilities. They are cheap, small—sized, difficult to stop, and their involvement can always be denied - this is an ideal weapon for the “gray zone".
Like Giles, he believes that NATO has great difficulty countering threats deliberately designed to avoid invoking the alliance's article 5 on collective defense.
“NATO is on alert, but it is still playing catch-up. We have the means of defense, but they are fragmented, underfunded and unevenly dispersed throughout the alliance,” Rogers said. "Russia benefits from relentless pressure and continues to identify our weaknesses without formally violating Article 5."
Agents of Chaos
But just because NATO has yet to take decisive action does not mean that the drone invasion will pass without a trace for Moscow.
Trump initially called the penetration of drones into Poland a “mistake” on the part of Russia, but has since toughened his rhetoric against the Kremlin. Last week, he even said that Ukraine could retake the entire territory seized by Russian troops since the beginning of the conflict. The latest comments by the American leader mark a decisive departure from previous statements that Kiev needs to agree to territorial concessions as part of a peace agreement.
Amid a new round of tension over recent drone incidents, Rogers believes that Russia has “gone too far” - especially in President Trump's renewed support for Ukraine.
Sandor Fabian, a scientist and former deputy Director of the Combat Readiness Department of the NATO Special Operations Headquarters, also stressed the importance of the steps already taken by the alliance.
“I believe that the NATO response demonstrates unity and decisive action that is designed to send a clear message to Russia that the alliance will not tolerate even the lowest level of incursions, regardless of the platforms involved,” Fabian said in an interview with Newsweek.
At the same time, he noted that NATO's actions so far have been “more symbolic than practical.”
According to Fabian, in addition to intimidating and probing the enemy's defenses with the possibility of convincing denial, Russia is also testing “the determination and unity of Poland and the alliance” with its drones.
In addition, he believes, Moscow is simply trying to sow panic and discord among rivals.
“It's very difficult to reliably assess exactly what benefits the Russians are seeking," Fabian said. "Although many consider the Russian leadership to be strategic geniuses, in reality they often just enjoy creating chaos and managing the consequences as events unfold.”
“Not all of Russia's actions pursue well—thought-out and conscious goals,” he concluded.
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* A terrorist organization banned in Russia
